Week 10 Sunday Night Showdown DFS Primer (Chiefs at Raiders)

The AFC West is wide open, adding importance to this division battle between the Chiefs and Raiders. It is projected to be a shootout, and I’m inclined to agree with the expectation established by the betting lines. Both offenses are top-heavy. So, there’s added importance to locating ancillary bargain options that can accommodate using the top dogs. Below, I dive into playing time and usage for both squads.

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Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: KC -2.5 Points

Over/Under: 52.0 Points

Chiefs Analysis: Patrick Mahomes is playing himself out of must-use status, even in single-game contests like this one. He has eclipsed 300 passing yards only one time in the last seven games. However, I expect him to eventually turn things around. It's possible tonight will be the night, as the Raiders are only a mid-pack pass defense. According to Football Outsiders, they are 17th in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Mahomes has traditionally hung fantasy points in bunches against the Raiders. Thus, I won't fault gamers for using him on this slate. However, I'm more open than ever to fading him.

The Raiders are also only a mid-pack defense against the run. They rank 16th in rush defense DVOA. Darrel Williams is a defensible option if you believe the Chiefs will be in a positive game script much of this game. He has touched the ball 19 times or more in three of four starts, all games the Chiefs won. Unfortunately, he's inefficient, averaging only 3.6 yards per rush attempt. Further, Jerick McKinnon is a better receiving back.

Jet tied his season-high offensive snap percentage (31%) last week, hauling in all three of his targets for 26 receiving yards -- both season-highs. According to Pro Football Focus, he's run 11 routes or more in five straight games. Digging deeper, he's primarily being used at or behind the line of scrimmage as a pass-catcher with an average depth of target of -1.6 yards. I'll expand on this further when discussing Kansas City's pass-catchers, but McKinnon's usage is a stylistic fit against the Raiders pass defense. Therefore, I'm intrigued by him on this slate.

Kansas City's passing attack is highly concentrated through Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. According to Sports Info Solutions, Hill is fifth in target share (28.5%). Further, he is first in Intended Air Yards (1,125). Meanwhile, Kelce boasts a rock-solid 22.3% target share that is inside the top-25. Hill is averaging 7.6 receptions and 92.4 yards from scrimmage per game, adding six scores. And, Kelce is averaging 6.0 receptions and 69.8 receiving yards per game with five touchdowns. Therefore, I prioritize Hill above Kelce. However, I prioritize both above Mahomes.

Beyond Kansas City's Big Two in the passing attack, it's an assortment of sorts. Mecole Hardman is third on the team in every meaningful category. However, his 4.2 receptions and 41.3 receiving yards per game leave a lot to be desired. To his credit, like McKinnon, he is a good stylistic fit against the Raiders. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Raiders have allowed the fifth-lowest average explosive pass rate (seven percent) this year. Interestingly, despite having elite speed, Hardman's average depth of target is only 7.3 yards downfield, per Pro Football Focus.

Fellow tertiary options in the passing attack, Josh Gordon and Byron Pringle, have marks of 14.0 yards and 13.7 yards, respectively. I'm wholly out on Gordon. However, I'm moderately intrigued by Pringle despite concerns about how his usage meshes with the Raiders' pass defense. Pringle has run 20 routes or more in five straight games. He's also earned his four highest playing time percentages in his last four games. Pringle's playing time has peaked in the previous three weeks, as he's played 46% of Kansas City's offensive snaps or more in three straight games.

Raiders Analysis: It's difficult analyzing the Raiders with multiple notable changes. However, Derek Carr is rolling through all of the turmoil. In three games with a new head coach, he averages 320 passing yards per game, tossing five touchdowns and three interceptions. Sure, that's not a flawless line. However, the passing yardage is eye-catching. In addition, he has a cushy matchup this week, as the Chiefs are 27th in pass defense DVOA. As a result, Carr is a stellar selection.

The backfield has a great matchup, too. The Chiefs are 29th in rush defense DVOA. Josh Jacobs is the primary ball-carrier for the Raiders. However, he has only 35 carries in the last three games, and he's fallen short of 50% of the team's offensive snaps in the last two weeks. So I'm content fading Jacobs.

Meanwhile, Kenyan Drake is the more productive back in the last three games, sporting scrimmage yardage totals of 73, 79, and 100. He is playing less than Jacobs. However, he is doing more, and he's the superior receiving back. Last week, Drake ran 24 routes to only 16 for Jacobs. Drake is the better bet for fantasy value as the receiving threat if this game goes sideways for the Raiders. Still, I'm not crazy about him, either.

Darren Waller returned from a one-game absence last week, and he shined. Waller hauled in seven of 11 targets for 92 receiving yards. Waller has seven or more targets in six of seven games. In the only outlier, Waller hauled in all five of his targets for 59 yards. Waller is a model of consistency with a desirable blend of a high floor and ceiling. He's easily my favorite option from the Raiders.

Meanwhile, Hunter Renfrow keeps chugging along with a similar fantasy profile to Waller. The shifty slot wideout has five or more targets in every game this year. Unfortunately, he hasn't surpassed 60 yards since Week 3. Nevertheless, he has tallied between 36 and 58 receiving yards in his last five games. Further, he has hauled in at least three receptions in each of those games, hauling in six or more receptions in four of his last five games. He's a chain mover. Additionally, according to our red zone stats, Renfrow's six targets from inside the 10-yard line are the most on the Raiders. Thus, Renfrow's yardage ceiling is short of Waller's, but he brings touchdown potential to the table along with his steady diet of receptions.

Behind the reliable duo of Waller and Renfrow is question marks abound. Unfortunately, Bryan Edwards hasn't capitalized on his team-leading routes for the year and over the last three games. I understand if gamers want to go to the well again, given his route numbers.

However, I prefer to look behind the mystery door at DeSean Jackson. This is going to be D-Jax's debut with the Raiders. He requested and received his relief from the Rams after being disgruntled with his limited role. Thus, I suspect a large part of the reason for his decision to sign with the Raiders was an assurance he'd play a prominent role in the offense. He showed in Week 3 that his elite speed still plays, reeling in three of five targets for 120 yards and a touchdown.

Meanwhile, Carr has showcased a willingness to throw deep passes and a competence doing so since last year. Finally, the Chiefs have yielded the sixth-highest average explosive pass rate (11%) this season. So, I'm chasing Jackson's matchup-fueled upside paired with Carr.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.