The Jets sprung an upset against the Bengals last week. Meanwhile, the Colts lost a heartbreaker in overtime against their division-rival Titans. Nevertheless, the Titans are big favorites in what might be a Thursday Night Football stinker. Still, that shouldn’t dissuade gamers from attempting to make money in single-game daily fantasy contests. So, I analyze both teams to determine which players are the most intriguing on this slate.
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Game: New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: IND -10.5 Points
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Jets Analysis: The Mike White story was fun last week. In his first NFL start, he sprung the upset against the Bengals, passing for 405 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions. Nonetheless, I'm expecting his encore to follow the path of many sequels and stink. Two red flags provide pause for trusting White to produce fantasy-relevant numbers this week. First, according to Pro Football Focus, his 4.7% turnover-worthy-play (TWP) rate is the third-highest among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks. Second, his 5.4-yard average depth of target is the second-lowest. So, he's putting the ball in harm's way at an alarming rate while dink-and-dunking. Yikes. That's a dreadful combination. Thus, while he's a worthy consideration on a single-game slate since he's a quarterback, I'm content with fading him.
Corey Davis suffered a late-week injury in practice, and his hip issue clouds his Week 9 status. If he returns, cross Keelan Cole Sr. and Denzel Mims off the usable players from the table. However, I'll fade Davis even if he's back for fear his hip will limit his production.
With Davis out in Week 8, Mims surprisingly led the team with 39 routes. Cole's 37 routes ranked second. Therefore, they're viable punts even though they didn't produce eye-catching numbers in their team-leading routes.
Instead, I prefer a quartet of short-area targets. Running backs Michael Carter and Ty Johnson were peppered with targets. Carter's 14 targets led the team, resulting in team-highs for receptions (nine) and receiving yards (95). He added 77 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. Unfortunately, the Colts rank first in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders. So, gamers should temper expectations for Carter's rushing production. However, his bloated passing-game usage makes him a stellar option even in a tough matchup.
Meanwhile, Johnson is only a change-of-pace back. Yet, he reeled in five of six targets for 71 yards and a touchdown, scampering for 15 yards on four carries. He's cheap enough to consider for salary relief at DraftKings.
Finally, Jamison Crowder's and Elijah Moore's average depth of target at 5.3 yards and 5.8 yards, respectively, mesh well with White's dink-and-dunk tendencies. Crowder finished last week second on the Jets in targets (nine), receptions (eight), and receiving yards (84). Unfortunately, he also lost a fumble. In addition, with the NFL trade deadline in the rear-view mirror and the Jets rebuilding, I don't think it's out of the question they might use Moore from the slot more, which would directly cut into Crowder's playing time and usage.
For Moore's part, he's coming off a productive game in which he snagged all six of his targets for 67 yards, adding a run for four yards. He's struggled mightily working from the perimeter mostly this year. Still, last week's showing is promising for improvement. In addition, as I noted in Crowder's write-up, the team theoretically could look to evaluate his talent from the slot more the rest of the way. So, he's my favorite option when factoring in recent performance, salary, and speculation.
Colts Analysis: Predictably, I prefer to allocate most of my salary cap space and roster spots to the heavily favored Colts. The player I'm most interested in using is Jonathan Taylor. He's trending toward bell-cow status. According to our snap counts, from Week 6 through Week 8, Taylor's snap percentage has ascended from 65% to 69% and 74%.
However, that doesn't tell the whole story. In that three-game stretch, Taylor's 66 routes dwarf Nyheim Hines 28. Therefore, he's now game-script proof. Finally, Taylor's balling out with per-game averages of 81.1 rushing yards, 2.6 receptions, and 33.1 receiving yards, splashing paydirt seven times. In summation, Taylor's a full-blown stud.
Michael Pittman Jr. is my second-favorite option on this slate. He's averaging 5.6 receptions and 74.3 receiving yards per game, hauling in four touchdowns. Further, according to Sports Info Solutions, his 623 Intended Air Yards is the 19th-highest mark. Also, according to Pro Football Focus, out of 73 receivers targeted at least 20 times, Pittman's 2.01 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) ranks tied for 26th.
The man airing it out to Pittman, Carson Wentz, didn't play his sharpest football last week. Nevertheless, he tossed three touchdowns. He's chucked multiple touchdowns in five straight games, showcasing more good play than bad play during that stretch. Wentz has a cushy matchup this week, as the Jets rank 27th in pass defense DVOA.
T.Y. Hilton is already ruled out, bumping up the ancillary options on the Colts. Zach Pascal is defensible. However, I'm fading his ghastly 0.92 Y/RR (tied for 82nd out of 89 receivers targeted at least 20 times in 2021).
Instead, I dig Mo Alie-Cox and Ashton Dulin. The former has 11 targets on 41 routes in the previous three games. Thus, even though his route total leaves a lot to be desired, he's garnering looks regularly when running routes.
Meanwhile, when Hilton was out in Week 7, Dulin's 20 routes ranked third on the Colts. Unfortunately, he converted four targets into two receptions for zero yards. Further, last week, Wentz dialed up a few deep balls for Dulin, resulting in an average depth of target of 24.5 yards downfield on four targets. Sure, the four targets all fell harmlessly incomplete. Still, the matchup is good for the passing attack and converting some explosive plays. According to Sharp Football Stats, Gang Green has allowed the third-highest average explosive pass rate (12%) this year. So, Dulin has a path to potential sneaky relevance on this single-game slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
