NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 14 (2021)

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Last week’s value plays weren’t my best work, really only hitting on a couple of guys, but sometimes that’s just how the cookie crumbles, no sense crying over spilled milk. I’m suddenly craving Oreos and milk…but I digress. This week’s values.

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Quarterback

DraftKings

Taysom Hill (NO) $5,600 @ NYJ

Last week’s Saints game was the epitome of why running quarterbacks are worth so much in fantasy. Taysom Hill had an awful “NFL” game with four interceptions that included a pick 6, but he still put up 27.66 Draftkings points — helped by his 101 rushing yards. The New York Jets give up the most fantasy points to running backs — by far. And, no, that wasn’t a typo. Hill is a running back. He happens to play quarterback.

Honorable Mention: Cam Newton (CAR) $5,400 vs. ATL

FanDuel

Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) $6,700 @ CIN

FanDuel has done an excellent job at pricing their quarterbacks this week. So good that I don’t see a value quarterback I truly like, but my editor is a tyrant and says I have to have a player listed here. Just kidding, but if I had to pick a quarterback to play as a value, I’d take Garoppolo. The Bengals are 18th in pass defense DVOA, and with the 49ers potentially without their starting running back, Elijah Mitchell, they may be forced to throw it more.

Running Back

DraftKings

JaMycal Hasty (SF) $4,000 @ CIN

As I just mentioned in my write-up of Garoppolo, the 49ers could be without not only their starting running back in Mitchell, but Jeff Wilson Jr. is also dealing with an injury. With Trey Sermon already on IR, the 49ers could be down to JaMycal Hasty and recently signed off the street, Brian Hill. The Bengals have a good run defense, ranking 11th in DVOA, but the volume alone at $4,000 makes Hasty a great value.

Josh Jacobs (LV) $6,200 @ KC

Kenyan Drake is done for the season after an ankle injury last week that will require surgery. It’s no coincidence that after Drake when down, Jacobs got a career high nine targets last week, catching all nine for 38 yards. With tight end Darren Waller trending in the wrong direction, Jacobs should be heavily involved in the passing once again. The Chiefs are 26th in run defense DVOA, and 28th is pass defense DVOA versus the running back position (per Football Outsiders). Jacobs is game-script proof, meaning even if the Raiders are getting blown-out, Jacobs is likely still on the field catching passes.

Honorable Mention: Javonte Williams (DEN) $5,900 vs. DET

FanDuel

JaMycal Hasty (SF) $4,700 @ CIN

Once again, FanDuel has done an excellent job with its pricing. Hasty was the only running back I could find that I felt was underpriced this week. See above for the write-up.

Wide Receiver

DraftKings

Jalen Guyton (LAC) $3,400 vs. NYG

This week, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen were both placed on the Covid list. It looks like Williams is more likely to play that Allen, but fire up Guyton if either one is out. He had a season-high four targets last week, which he converted into 90 yards and a touchdown. The Giants pass defense is good, ranking eighth in DVOA, but at $3,400, the volume that Guyton could get will make him a worthy dart throw. He is a big play receiver that could pay off his salary in one play.

Keelan Cole (NYJ) $3,100 vs. NO

Corey Davis was lost for the year, leaving Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder, and most likely Keelan Cole as the top three wide receivers for the Jets. Cole’s appeal is strictly based on his price tag. It’s not a good matchup as the Saints rank 8th in pass defense DVOA, but paying $3,100 for a receiver likely to play upwards of 70 percent of the snaps isn’t a bad punt play — and he will allow you to pay up elsewhere.

Honorable Mention: Josh Palmer (LAC) $3,000 vs. NYG

FanDuel

Jalen Guyton (LAC) $5,200 vs. NYG

see above

Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) $5,200 vs. BAL

The Ravens pass defense ranks 27th in DVOA, and that was before they lost star cornerback Marlon Humphrey to a season-ending injury. I get it. Outside of two games this season, DPJ hasn’t been able to fill the void left by Odell Beckham Jr., and with the way OBJ had played in recent years, filling the gap shouldn’t have been that difficult. But, what better way to have a coming out party than at home, against a division leading rival, and with playoff implications? Okay, that might be asking too much, but maybe we can capture lightning in a bottle just one more time this season with DPJ?

Tight End

DraftKings

John Bates (WFT) $3,000 vs. DAL

With Logan Thomas out for the season and Ricky Seals-Jones still limited in practice, Bates could be the de facto No. 1 tight end for Taylor Heinicke this week. However, if Seals-Jones does, in fact, play, I like him over Bates. The Cowboys are in the bottom third of the league in points allowed to tight ends at 11.21 DraftKings points per game (per Rotogrinders.com),

Honorable Mention: Ricky Seals-Jones (WFT) $3,600 vs. DAL

FanDuel

John Bates/Rick Seals-Jones (WFT) $4,600/$4,500 vs. DAL

see above

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