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NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 13 (2021)

Dec 3, 2021
Jimmy Garoppolo

Jimmy Garoppolo sees a giving matchup against Seattle in week 13.

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Week 13 is upon us, and yet another good week for my value column in Week 12. Javonte Williams, Eli Mitchell, and Kendrick Bourne were some of my better calls last week. My misses included Miles Sanders, Cam Newton, and Mike Williams. Let’s get to this week’s values…

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Quarterback

DraftKings

Taylor Heinicke (QB – WFT) $5,600 @ LV

The Raiders are 25th in pass defense DVOA on the season. Heinicke has started to eliminate his mistakes, and the Football Team’s run game has begun to click, allowing him to play ball control and remain efficient — at $5,600, he won’t have to do much to pay off his salary.

Honorable Mention: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) vs. NYG

FanDuel

Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF) $6,600 @ SEA

Much like Heinicke, the 49ers’ offense is running the ball well, and Garoppolo has eliminated the mistakes that kill his fantasy value. He isn’t going to throw for four touchdowns, but he can reach value as long as he isn’t throwing interceptions. The Seahawks are 27th in pass defense DVOA.

Honorable Mention: Taylor Heinicke (WFT) $7,100 @ LV

Running Back

DraftKings

Jamaal Williams (RB – DET) $5,400 vs. MIN

With D’Andre Swift expected to miss at least this game, if not more, Williams will be the de facto No. 1 running back. The Vikings are one of the worst defenses in defending the run, ranking 29th in DVOA. Williams has limited touchdown upside on a bad Lion’s offense, but volume alone can get him there.

Kenyan Drake (RB – LV) $4,400 vs. WFT

On Thursday, Josh Jacobs was added to the injury report, leaving his status up in the air for Sunday. Drake would step into the starting role with significant volume if he were to miss the game.  Drake has shown he can be a good fantasy player when given the opportunity, and even in a tough matchup against the seventh-ranked run defense, his $4,400 price tag is attractive.

Honorable Mention: Sony Michel (LAR) $4,300 vs. JAX

FanDuel

Kenyan Drake (RB – LV) $5,400 vs. WFT

see above

Sony Michel (RB – LAR) $5,300 vs. JAX

Another running back to keep an eye on this week is Darrell Henderson. He hasn’t practiced this week (as of Thursday), and if he were to sit out, the workload would fall to Sony Michel. Michel doesn’t give you the same PPR value that Henderson does, but on FanDuel, with the half PPR scoring, he is more viable.

Wide Receiver

DraftKings

Josh Reynolds (WR – DET) $3,400 vs. MIN

Last week, Reynolds showed some chemistry with his former Rams teammate Jared Goff, catching three of his five targets for 70 yards and a touchdown. His price tag is still sub-$4k, and the Lions will have to throw the ball to keep up with the Vikings offense. The Lions will be without D’Andre Swift, which could leave a few more targets for Reynolds to pick up.

Jauan Jennings (WR – SF) $3,100 @ SEA

This call will be my “shot in the dark” play of the week. Jennings has been getting more and more involved the last few weeks with six targets over his previous three games after only five targets in the previous eight games. He converted one of those targets into a touchdown last week and very nearly had a second touchdown — he couldn’t get both his feet down.

Now, with Deebo Samuel set to miss this game, Jennings is expected to be the No. 2 receiver across from Brandon Aiyuk. The Seahawks are 27th in overall pass defense DVOA and 28th against a team’s No. 2 receiver.

FanDuel

Josh Reynolds (WR – DET) $5,000 vs. MIN

see above

A.J. Green (WR – ARI) $5,600 @ CHI

With Kyler Murray expected to play this week, Green becomes a viable dart throw against the Bears. In the eight games with Kyler Murray, Green has six or more targets in six of them, with double-digit fantasy points in four.

Tight End

DraftKings

Foster Moreau (TE – LV) $2,700 vs. WFT

With Darren Waller listed as doubtful, Moreau steps into the TE1 role for the Raiders. The only other time he filled in for Waller this season, he had six catches on six targets for 60 yards and a touchdown. At $2,700, he will be the chalk tight end this week… and for a good reason.

FanDuel

Foster Moreau (TE – LV) $2,700 vs. WFT

see above

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