Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 18 (the final week!) of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices.
Week 18 is pure madness. The last few weeks have been a bit nuts because of the COVID situations, but now we also have teams potentially resting starters for either entire games or parts of games. Joe Mixon just landed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list and has already been ruled out, and the Bengals have also said they’re resting Joe Burrow despite the top seed in the AFC potentially being on the line if other teams lose. Enter Samaje Perine, who is a name not featured below who is worth a look in DFS contests.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool 
Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 18 (the final week!) of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices.
Week 18 is pure madness. The last few weeks have been a bit nuts because of the COVID situations, but now we also have teams potentially resting starters for either entire games or parts of games. Joe Mixon just landed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list and has already been ruled out, and the Bengals have also said they’re resting Joe Burrow despite the top seed in the AFC potentially being on the line if other teams lose. Enter Samaje Perine, who is a name not featured below who is worth a look in DFS contests.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Quarterbacks
FanDuel
Trey Lance (SF - QB) vs. LAR, $7,000 (+$600)
This one is obviously contingent upon Jimmy Garoppolo not playing again in Week 18. But if it's the Trey Lance show again, I'll have him in a number of DFS lineups this weekend again. Lance finished as a QB1 last week and always has that kind of upside with his ability and in this offense. He has a tougher matchup against the Rams this week, but that could end up being a good thing in DFS in what is a must-win game for the 49ers. As I have talked about all season, the running ability provides a solid floor, and Lance has come a long way from where he was earlier this season.
DraftKings
Case Keenum (CLE - QB) vs. CIN, $4,800 ($0)
Baker Mayfield is having surgery and will not play in Week 18. The Browns don't really have a young developmental quarterback worth starting in this game, which means we're likely going to see Case Keenum at the helm in a game that doesn't mean anything for the Browns. Now, the Browns are very unlikely to win this game and may rest a bunch of their starters. But they're also probably going to be losing for most of the game and have nothing to fear. That means Keenum could throw the ball 30+ times, and he's essentially free on DraftKings at $4,800. This is a dart throw in GPP contests, but if you can get a free quarterback who is expected to throw a lot (and could fill up the box score with garbage time stats), that's a worthwhile gamble.
Running Backs
FanDuel
Jaret Patterson (WAS - RB) vs. NYG, $6,600 (+$1,200)
Jaret Patterson filled in admirably for Antonio Gibson last week, rushing 12 times for 57 yards and a touchdown and catching all five of his targets for 41 yards in a loss to the Eagles. Gibson missed the game due to a positive COVID test and has already been activated this week, but the Football Team (I can't wait for them to be named anything else so I can stop writing that) has been eliminated and has nothing to play for in Week 18. Gibson is a young running back who has been banged up all season. I just can't see them giving him a big workload this week, and they may sit him down entirely. Patterson's price has jumped up significantly, but he's still just RB22 on FanDuel this week. The Giants stink, and both teams will be somewhat checked out this week. That should mean a ton of work for Patterson, an undrafted free agent continuing to audition for a future role.
DraftKings
Elijah Mitchell (SF - RB) vs. LAR, $6,000 ($0)
Last week, Elijah Mitchell rushed for 119 yards on 21 carries and caught both of his targets for 11 yards and a touchdown, and his price...didn't change on DraftKings? Ok then. He is RB20 on DraftKings this week, but I have him projected as a clear RB1. As with Lance above, the Rams are a tougher defense this week. But the 49ers need to win this game to ensure they make the playoffs, and they've leaned on Mitchell whenever he has been active this season.
Wide Receivers
FanDuel
Jaylen Waddle (MIA - WR) vs. NE, $6,800 (-$200)
There are a few players who have appeared in these articles a handful of times this season. Another way of saying that is there are a few players who have been consistently undervalued by DFS sites who have made us a nice chunk of money this season. Jaylen Waddle is one of those players, especially in the second half of this year. Waddle has received double-digit targets seven times this year and in three of his last four games, and he has finished as a WR1 in two of his last four games. The Dolphins don't have anything to play for in Week 18, but Waddle is in striking distance of the NFL rookie receptions record. Expect them to feed their young wideout on Sunday.
DraftKings
A.J. Brown (TEN - WR) vs. HOU, $7,000 (-$200)
Against the Dolphins last week, A.J. Brown caught just two of his five targets for 41 yards. However, the Titans ran away with that game in a blowout and didn't have to throw the ball very often. In Week 16 against the 49ers, Brown caught 11 of his 16 targets for 145 yards and a touchdown. The Titans can clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage with a win in Week 18. Expect them to feed Brown the ball early and often to close out the season with an important win.
Tight Ends
FanDuel
Dawson Knox (BUF - TE) vs. NYJ, $6,000 (-$200)
The tight end position has not been fun over the last several weeks. I have been sticking to tight ends who I have projected as around TE5-TE10 to try and find the sweet spot between projections and price. This week, we have Dawson Knox at $6,000 against a checked-out Jets team. Knox was held without a catch last week and only had one catch against the Jets in Week 10. Not great. But the Jets have struggled against tight ends lately and have nothing to play for in Week 18, while the Bills can clinch the AFC East with a win. Knox has four touchdowns in his last five games, and I'm banking on another one in Week 18.
DraftKings
Zach Ertz (ARI - TE) vs. SEA, $5,300 (+$100)
We have been talking about Zach Ertz a bunch in this space over the last couple of months, and I have been going out of my way to try to talk about other tight ends. But the tight end position has been gross in DFS, and Ertz keeps being undervalued by both FanDuel and DraftKings. When I look at my projections compared to his price, I just have to keep rolling him out there in lineups. If it ain't broke, don't fix it, or something. $5,300 isn't a huge discount on DK, but it's $1,000 cheaper than Rob Gronkowski this week. Ertz has received 33 targets over his last three games, and Seattle has struggled against tight ends all season and has nothing to play for in Week 18. Giddy up.
Want to keep the conversation going or just have a question? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
