Week 18 Sunday Night Showdown DFS Primer (Chargers at Raiders)

This week, the Chargers and Raiders close the regular season with a win-and-in contest — or tie-and-in game if the Colts are upset by the Jaguars in the afternoon window. Thus, there won’t be any funny business with either team resting players. Below, I highlight the top daily fantasy options, narrowing down the pool a bit further in the team-by-team analysis.

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Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: LAC -3.0 Points

Over/Under: 49.5 Points

Chargers Analysis: Austin Ekeler is the most expensive player to use on the Chargers. He's a do-it-all back, averaging 97.3 scrimmage yards and 4.3 receptions per game and scoring 18 touchdowns, per Pro-Football-Reference. However, I'm not crazy about paying his sizable salary, with the emergence of Justin Jackson lately. Ekeler played banged up in Week 15, sharing the backfield with Jackson. Then, he missed Week 16 on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. He returned last week, playing only 58% of the offensive snaps, with Jackson playing 37% of the offensive snaps. Regardless, Ekeler amassed 112 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. So, obviously, he can deliver for gamers that use him. Still, I prefer to turn to the Chargers' passing attack instead.

According to Football Outsiders, the Raiders are ninth in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and 25th in pass defense DVOA. Therefore, the sledding should be easier for Justin Herbert and Co. in the passing game. Herbert was sharp in Week 4 against the Raiders, passing for 222 yards and three touchdowns. He's had a sensational sophomore season, ranking tied for third in passing touchdowns (35) and third in passing yards per game (289.4). As a result, Herbert's my favorite option on this single-game slate.

Keenan Allen is my favorite pass-catching option to use with Herbert. Allen leads the Chargers in targets (149), receptions per game (6.7), and receiving yards per game (72.4), adding six touchdowns. Additionally, he's a better stylistic fit against the Raiders than Mike Williams. According to Pro Football Focus, Williams has had an average depth of target of 11.2 yards, and Allen's has been 9.1 yards. The Raiders do an excellent job of limiting explosive passes. According to Sharp Football Stats, they cede the seventh-lowest average explosive pass rate (7%).

Finally, Joshua Palmer is an enticing cheap option. Unfortunately, according to Pro Football Focus, he ran only 14 routes in Week 17, with the full complement of Chargers' receivers healthy and active. However, he garnered four targets and has been a red-zone presence all year. According to the FantasyPros Red Zone Stats, Palmer has six receptions on eight targets in the red zone, scoring two touchdowns. The rookie's seven receptions inside the 20 have been just one less than Williams' seven on 21 targets.

Raiders Analysis: While the row to hoe is easier for the Chargers' passing attack, the converse is valid for the Raiders. The Chargers are 23rd in pass defense DVOA, and they're dead last in rush defense DVOA. Sadly, Josh Jacobs is listed as questionable. Regardless, he practiced -- albeit in a limited capacity -- all week. Jacobs is inefficient, but he's a bell-cow in a plus matchup. Jacobs has touched the ball 14 times or more in six straight games, becoming a dump-down machine in the passing game for most of this year. As a result, he's my favorite option from the Raiders.

Darren Waller is also on the injury report and is genuinely questionable for this week.

.@Raiders TE Darren Waller increased his workload throughout the week, how his body responds the next two days will determine whether he plays and, if so, to what extent against the @chargers

- Vincent Bonsignore (@VinnyBonsignore) January 7, 2022

Even if Waller suits up, there is a risk he faces limitations or is used as a decoy. Nevertheless, I'll probably roll the dice on him in a mouthwatering matchup, even with the concerns. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Chargers allow the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to tight ends. Therefore, Foster Moreau is a slam-dunk value pick if Waller is out. However, I'm not opposed to using Waller and Moreau if the former plays.

Derek Carr is the man leading the passing attack. However, I lean toward Jacobs and Waller from the Raiders with this top-heavy player pool. Unfortunately, that also makes Hunter Renfrow a tough cut from my player pool. Renfrow has been great this year. However, Week 15 and Week 16 illustrate recent examples of teams bottling him up, holding him to three receptions and 32 yards in Week 15 and three receptions, 40 yards, and a touchdown in Week 16.

Finally, Zay Jones has carved out a notable role in the Raiders offense down the stretch, catching five or more passes in five of his last six games. Still, a returning Waller will cut into someone's work, and I expect the Raiders to run the ball as much as they can -- if the game script allows it. Instead of paying to use Jones, I'd rather take a home-run swing on DeSean Jackson as a punt. The Chargers allow the eighth-highest average explosive pass rate (9%). Despite D-Jax's limited playing time, he still has the juice to barbecue a secondary, even on limited opportunities.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.