We have games spread throughout the day, but we’re going to zone in on the night slate beginning at 7ET. That still gives us eight games to break down, and it should be a fun one. There’s a ton to discuss, though, so let’s go ahead and get started with the pitching!
Wednesday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
We have games spread throughout the day, but we’re going to zone in on the night slate beginning at 7ET. That still gives us eight games to break down, and it should be a fun one. There’s a ton to discuss, though, so let’s go ahead and get started with the pitching!
Wednesday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Wednesday’s Starting Pitcher Strategy
This isn’t the prettiest pitching pool we’ve had recently. On the contrary, this is one of the worst groups of pitchers I’ve written about all year. It feels like every slate has been stacked with aces, but we’re dipping deeper into the rotations here. With that said, we have two studs that we like, and two GPP plays that could be massive per-dollar plays. All of that means that we will pay up for some hitting and try to save at the pitcher position. With that said, let’s kick things off with the two expensive pitchers we love!
Cash Game Recommendations:
Lucas Giolito (CWS) at CHC
Giolito is the safest pitcher on this slate. Something changed for the right-hander in 2019, pitching to a 3.44 ERA and 1.08 WHIP since then. That makes him one of the best arms in baseball, scoring at least 30 FanDuel points in all three starts this year. He’s done that damage despite going winless, but it’s just a matter of time before he gets rolling. Facing the Cubs might be an excellent way to start that, with Chicago ranked 20th in xwOBA while possessing one of the worst lineups in baseball. The oddsmakers like him too, making Giolito a -150 favorite, with the Cubbies projected for just 3.5 runs.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs. CIN
This is my favorite play of the day. Peralta has gotten off to a rough start this year but still has a 3.19 ERA and 1.03 WHIP since 2020. His strikeouts make him scary, striking out 265 batters across 192 innings. That’s scary for Cincinnati, with the Reds ranked dead-last in OBP, SLG, wOBA, and xwOBA. All of that makes them the best matchup in baseball, making Peralta a -250 favorite in this game.
GPP Recommendations:
Adam Wainwright (STL) at KC
Waino has also gotten off to a rocky start, but he’s too reliable to be this cheap in this matchup. Let’s start there, with the Royals ranked 28th in xwOBA and last in runs scored. This guy knows how to slow down ineffective offenses, with Wainwright generating a 3.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP between 2020 and 2021. He’s crushed Kansas City in the last two years, going at least seven innings in both of those starts.
Dylan Bundy (MIN) at BAL
This one is risky, but it’s hard to fade Bundy with the way he’s pitching right now. This guy has always had the talent and a 2.95 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through the opening month has fans feeling like this is the year where it all comes together. He did that damage against brutal offenses like the Red Sox, White Sox, and Rays but facing Baltimore is far from challenging. The Orioles sit 23rd in wOBA and 27th in runs scored.
Top Lineup Stacks
My last three articles have featured the Rockies at home, and it’s easy to understand why. This is simply one of the best offenses at home, and it’ll remain that way as long as they play in Coors Field. That’s the most hitter-friendly environment in baseball, giving the Rockies the highest projected total on this slate. We don’t anticipate Corbin slowing them down, with PC posting a 5.74 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP since 2020.
Anytime the Bronx Bombers face a lefty, they will be in this section. They have the most dangerous group of righty sluggers, sending out Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, and Gleyber Torres. That’s terrible news for Kikuchi, collecting a 5.52 ERA and 1.91 WHIP this season. That’s why the Yanks are projected for nearly five runs, and all of these guys are in play in a hitter’s haven like Rogers Centre.
St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Kris Bubic)
The Cardinals have an improved lineup this season, and they’re going to be dangerous against lefties. All of their perilous bats are righties, sending out sluggers like Tyler O’Neill, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Albert Pujols, and Paul DeJong. That group will be tough to navigate for a guy like Kris Bubic, with the southpaw slinging a 10.50 ERA and 2.08 WHIP this season.
Core Studs
| POS |
PLAYER |
DK SALARY |
FD SALARY |
| OF |
Aaron Judge (NYY) |
$5,900 |
$4,600 |
| 3B |
Nolan Arenado (STL) |
$6,100 |
$3,800 |
| DH |
Nelson Cruz (WAS) |
$4,000 |
$3,000 |
| 1B |
C.J. Cron (COL) |
$5,600 |
$4,000 |
| OF/DH |
J.D. Martinez (BOS) |
$4,300 |
$3,800 |
- If the Yankees are one of our favorite stacks, Judge has to be one of our favorite plays. This is one of the hottest hitters in baseball, tallying a 1.002 OPS through the first four weeks of the season. He’s been even hotter recently, totaling a 1.331 OPS over his last nine games played. He’s better against lefties, too, totaling a .385 OBP and 1.035 OPS against them since 2020.
- With how bad Bubic has been this season, Arenado is tough to avoid in this spot. The slugging third baseman has a .679 SLG and 1.111 OPS through the opening month of the season. He’s always slaughtered southpaws, too, providing a .560 SLG and .885 OPS against them over the last three years.
- Cruz’s career may be over at the age of 41, but facing a bad lefty in Coors Field might be the way to get him going. The former All-Star has nearly 2,200 plate appearances against lefties, accumulating a .382 OBP, .565 SLG, and .947 OPS against them. Those are unbelievable averages, and it makes him tough to fade in a place like Coors.
- Speaking of Coors, Cron has been crushing ever since he signed with the Rockies. The first baseman has a .368 OBP, .548 SLG, and .916 OPS since the beginning of last season, doing most of that damage at home. In fact, Cron’s OPS is north of 1.000 against lefties and at home since joining this team.
- Martinez has been struggling this season, but a grand slam on Sunday might be the thing to get him going. Facing a subpar southpaw is another way to get him raking, with J.D. accruing a .376 OBP, .578 SLG, and .954 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor throughout his career. Reid Detmers is far from worrisome, too, with the lefty compiling a 6.39 ERA and 1.47 WHIP for his career.
Value Plays/Punts
| POS |
PLAYER |
DK SALARY |
FD SALARY |
| OF |
Tyler O’Neill (STL) |
$4,800 |
$2,900 |
| 3B |
Josh Donaldson (NYY) |
$4,300 |
$3,300 |
| 1B |
Rowdy Tellez (MIL) |
$3,900 |
$2,500 |
| OF |
Randal Grichuk (COL) |
$5,100 |
$3,800 |
| 2B/SS |
Jorge Polanco (MIN) |
$4,300 |
$3,000 |
- O’Neill is probably too good to be in this section, but we needed to get him in here against Bubic. The yolked outfielder has 35 homers, and 18 steals since the start of last season, en route to a .518 SLG and .855 OPS. He’s been even better against lefties, providing a .380 OBP, .547 SLG, and .927 OPS against them.
- There’s been a theme in this article, and Donaldson falls right in line. He’s yet another right-handed bat that gets a tremendous matchup against a lefty. We already discussed Yusei’s ugly averages, but we love that JD is flirting with a .400 OBP and .900 SLG against left-handers in nearly 1,200 career at-bats.
- Tellez is one of the best punt plays of the day. He should bat right in the heart of this Brewers lineup, and it’s easy to understand why. The beefy first baseman has a .519 SLG and .830 OPS against righties this year. It’s not like Vlad Gutierrez will stop that, with the righty registering a 7.41 ERA and 1.94 WHIP this season.
- Grichuk is well on his way to a monster year in Colorado. He’s got a career ISO north of .200 and should rake at Coors all year. That’s been the case so far, hitting .579 against lefties this year en route to a .789 SLG and 1.389 OPS.
- Polanco has been way too cheap all season. He’s got an OPS north of .800 over the last three years, and he’s being priced like a bench player. We certainly don’t mind that he bats from his more favorable left side here, facing a rookie making his second career start.
Wednesday’s Hitter Strategy
There is so much value on this slate in terms of hitting. With that said, the Rockies look like the best stack on the board, and starting your lineup with Peralta, Cron and Grichuk may be the way to go. From there, you can mix in some of these other bats and go for a value arm like Bundy. Some other teams that we didn’t mention include the Twins, Red Sox, Brewers, and Nationals.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
