Over the past few years, the concept of the RB dead zone has become popularized by fantasy football content creators. For those new to the idea, the RB dead zone is generally referred to as rounds 3-6 in fantasy drafts where RB hit rates have been historically poor. If you have taken in much fantasy content this offseason, then you have likely heard of the dangers of drafting RBs from the dead zone, but the dead zone isn’t quite as dead as you may have been led to believe.
In the past three seasons, there have been 52 RBs whose ADP fell within the dead zone in 12-team leagues (PPR ADP data from fantasydata.com). Of those 52 RBs, 63.4% had a season-end rank that was worse than their preseason ADP rank within the RB position group (e.g. in 2021, Mike Davis had an ADP of 44, and was drafted as the RB21, but finished the season as the RB35). The data indicates that it’s more likely than not that dead zone RBs won’t provide a good return on investment, but not by an overwhelming margin. In fact, there’s plenty of hidden value among RBs within the dead zone with 36.6% of RBs outperforming their ADP since 2019.
To highlight the point that there is hidden value and even league-winning RBs within the dead zone, here’s a list of some RBs who have come from the dead zone in the past three seasons:
- Aaron Jones (2019): drafted as RB16, finished as RB2
- Austin Ekeler (2019): drafted as RB30, finished as RB4
- David Montgomery (2020): drafted as RB29, finished as RB4
- Derrick Henry (2019): drafted as RB23, finished as RB5
- Jonathan Taylor (2020): drafted as RB19, finished as RB6
- Kareem Hunt (2020): drafted as RB27, finished as RB10
- Mark Ingram (2019): drafted as RB21, finished as RB11
- Josh Jacobs (2021): drafted as RB17, finished as RB12
- Melvin Gordon (2020): drafted as RB22, finished as RB14
- Damien Harris (2021): drafted as RB25, finished as RB14
In addition to the players listed above, nine other RBs drafted in the dead zone have outperformed their ADP in the past three seasons. Fantasy managers by no means should completely rule out drafting RBs from the dead zone; they just need to understand the risk and better identify the RBs who are most likely to be worth their price tag.
In 2022 fantasy drafts, there are currently 15 RBs whose ADP falls within the RB dead zone according to FantasyPros’ consensus ADP data. If recent history is any indication (36.6% outperform ADP), then there should be five to six RBs within the dead zone who will end up being draft-day bargains. With that being the case, here are five dead zone RBs to target in 2022 fantasy drafts.
Cam Akers (RB – LAR) (ADP 32; RB18)
This time last season, Akers was being drafted as a first- or second-round pick in fantasy drafts, but he tore his Achilles while working out before training camp, effectively ending his 2021 campaign. Except, it didn’t. Akers miraculously returned from the injury in just six months and functioned as the Rams’ primary RB during their Super Bowl run. As incredible as his return from injury was, his play on the field was uninspiring, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry in the playoffs. Akers’ lack of production at the end of last season is why his draft value has taken a dip, but fantasy managers shouldn’t be scared away from him as a fantasy asset moving forward. During Akers’ unproductive playoff stretch, the Rams played against a gauntlet of the league’s best run defenses, and although he was able to play, he was in no way completely back to full ability so soon after a major injury. Los Angeles Rams HC Sean McVay tends to lean on one workhorse RB, and Akers, who recently self-proclaimed himself as 100% healthy, is the heavy favorite to lead the team’s backfield. In a league where the majority of teams utilize RB committees, Akers’ talent and opportunity make him a potential league-winner for fantasy managers.
A.J. Dillon (RB – GB) (ADP 62; RB26)
The fact that Dillon is being drafted as the RB26 should honestly be offensive to those who are paying attention. The main reason why Dillon is ranked so low is that he is perceived to be the second RB in the Packers’ offense behind veteran Aaron Jones, but in reality, the backfield is much closer to a 50/50 split than Jones being the team’s primary rusher. Since the Packers’ Week 13 bye last season, Dillon averaged 11.8 carries per game while Jones averaged 9.5 and both contributed in the passing game, yet Jones is being drafted as the RB12 and Dillon as the RB26.
In 2022, Jones will be 27 years old, an age that often marks the beginning of a decline in production for RBs. Dillon will be 24 years old, an age that has been identified as the pinnacle of production in running backs’ careers. Even with snaps being split between the two RBs, Dillon should receive more carries in 2022 as the Packers are expected to become more run-heavy following the departure of superstar WR Davante Adams. Dillon, who provides standalone value even while splitting time with Jones, offers league-winning upside if Jones were to miss games due to injury, making him a high-priority dead zone target.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL) (ADP 31; RB17)
Elliott, who has finished as an RB1 in every season of his career that he’s played in more than 10 games, has seen his fantasy stock drop significantly over the last year. Here are the three main reasons Elliott’s fantasy stock has dropped:
- He appeared to have lost his burst and speed after the first few weeks of the 2021 season.
- Tony Pollard‘s emergence in Dallas’ backfield.
- He will be 27 at the start of the 2022 season and has carried a massive workload during his six-year NFL career.
Here are three reasons to not care about those concerns:
- Elliott played through the majority of the 2021 season with a partially torn PCL, an injury he sustained in Week 5. It would make sense for an athlete to lose some explosion playing with a torn anything in their knee, yet this fact is being severely overlooked by the fantasy community. Through the first five weeks of the 2021 season, Elliott was averaging 19.1 PPG in PPR formats, a number that if maintained through the entire season, would have been good enough for an RB3 finish. Complaints of lack of burst didn’t come until later in the season, and there is a reasonable explanation for this observation other than him just losing a step.
- For as impressive as Pollard has been in short spurts, Elliott is still the lead back in Dallas. Even with the torn PCL, Elliott was given 237 carries while Pollard received just 130. There have even been reports out of Dallas that Pollard is getting work in the slot this offseason, a sign that they want to get him on the field more, but not at the expense of Elliott’s playing time.
- Elliott’s age and past workload are no doubt signs that his efficiency will be taking a dip at some point in the near future. Maybe that’s this year, maybe it’s not, but for RBs in fantasy football, volume is king and it trumps efficiency. A good example of this is Najee Harris‘ rookie season in which his efficiency was terrible, averaging a below-league average of 3.9 yards per carry, yet he still finished as the RB3 because he was given 307 carries and had high usage in the passing game. Elliott should still lead the team in touches, he’s the goal-line back in a high-powered offense, and he’s still getting a ton of work in the passing game, having the seventh-most targets among RBs in 2021. If Elliott stays healthy in 2022, it would be hard for him to not finish better than the RB17, his current rank among RBs in fantasy drafts.
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – JAC) (ADP 48; RB23)
Etienne was a 2021 first-round pick for the Jaguars, but he never made his NFL debut as a rookie, having sustained a season-ending Lisfranc injury in the preseason. Etienne is expected to be a full-go for training camp, giving him the inside track to grab ahold of the Jaguars’ lead RB spot while teammate James Robinson continues to recover from a torn Achilles. After missing an entire season, some may have forgotten how special of a talent Etienne was as a prospect. Etienne is a big play waiting to happen, having led the nation in carries of 20-plus yards in his final two collegiate seasons. He’s also a legitimate threat as a receiver, having led the nation in receiving yards among RBs in his junior season at Clemson. Jacksonville is in desperate need of playmakers to step up after a horrible 2021 offensive performance, and Etienne figures to be a player they lean on heavily to provide a spark for an offense that was stagnant last season. Since 2014, 72.7% of RBs who were drafted in the first round of the NFL draft have finished as the RB23 or better in their rookie season. Etienne isn’t technically a rookie in 2022, but he will be making his NFL debut, and he sure seems like a good bet to outproduce his current draft position.
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) (ADP 50, RB24)
Hall was a true “do it all” RB who was the focal point of Iowa State’s offense during his collegiate career. In his final two seasons with the Cyclones, Hall had 531 carries and scored 41 TDs, both of which led all Power-Five RBs. He’s a more than capable receiver out of the backfield and is a load to bring down for defenders, as evidenced by his 74 missed tackles forced in 2021 (per PFF). The main reason why Hall isn’t ranked higher is that some are concerned that he and second-year RB Michael Carter will be used in a committee in a Jets offense that has struggled to score points in recent years. However, as odd as this may sound, the Jets may have a sneaky good offense in 2022. They are loaded with talented young WRs and the offensive line has been upgraded this offseason as well. Assuming QB Zach Wilson can take a step forward in his second season, the Jets could be a team with a surprisingly good offense, which bodes well for Hall’s fantasy upside. Recent reports from Jets camp indicate that the team views Hall as the lead back and Carter as a complementary piece. If Hall does function as the team’s primary rusher and the offense can get better at sustaining drives and scoring points, then Hall should easily outperform his current ADP.
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