Let’s take a look at wide receivers our expert consensus likes less than ADP.
And also check out players our experts like more than ADP:
- 5 Running Backs Experts Like More Than ADP
- 5 Wide Receivers Experts Like More Than ADP
- 5 Quarterbacks Experts Like More Than ADP
- 5 Tight Ends Experts Like More Than ADP
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and Consensus ADP.
5 Wide Receivers Experts Like Less Than ADP
Deebo Samuel (SF)
ECR WR7 | ADP WR6
Deebo Samuel made me pay the price for overlooking him, as the talented wideout finished last season as the WR2 overall and in points per game (18.8). His receiving production alone would have him placed inside the top-10.
But there’s reason to believe that Samuel won’t be able to sustain that same elite production from last season. Natural regression is firmly in play considering no WR earned more fantasy points above expectation than Samuel did in 2021.
And that number doesn’t come as a surprise considering nearly 30% of Samuel’s fantasy points came from rushing alone.
Tyreek Hill (MIA)
ECR WR9 | ADP WR8
Heading into 2021, Tyreek Hill was a consensus top-three receiver option. But he came in slightly under expectations. The ‘Cheetah’ wrapped a bow on the year as the WR6 overall and in points per game (14.2).
It’s worth noting that Hill posted a career-low in yards after the catch per reception (4.3, 42nd) and yards per route run (2.14, 11th). Hill’s aDOT also dipped dramatically to 10.6, which was the lowest it’s been since his rookie season.
And It’s undeniable that going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a massive downgrade for Hill. Tagovailoa has yet to show that he can properly fuel a fantasy WR1, so it’s hard to expect Hill to deliver a top-5 season with a lesser passer. Especially with Tagovailoa’s lack of a confident deep ball, a prominent running game, and Jaylen Waddle also heavily involved in the offensive game plan. Sure, Hill will have his weeks when he is peppered with low-value targets in PPR formats, but the massive downfield touchdowns will happen much less frequently.
DK Metcalf (SEA)
ECR WR18 | ADP WR15
The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback versus Russell Wilson cannot be overstated enough. It’s a horrible situation to be in and puts D.K. Metcalf in a tough spot.
Although the alpha wideout did rise to occasion under a small sample size last season, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game (15th – same as his final season-long standing) without Wilson at quarterback for three games.
But I am suspect that removing their quarterback that led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6) and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before his finger injury is going to create a much larger impact over a 17-game sample size.
Chris Godwin (TB)
ECR WR29 | ADP WR21
Chris Godwin posted another stellar season last year as the WR7 in fantasy football. He set opposing defenses on fire as Tom Brady‘s underneath weapon, ranking eighth in YAC per reception and fifth in overall YAC yardage. The biggest question for Godwin in 2022 isn’t talent but his recovery from an ACL and MCL tear sustained in Week 15 of last season. If Godwin is good to go, he’s a top 15 fantasy wideout, but tempering expectations early on if he’s limited or starts on the PUP pushes him into WR2/WR3 territory based on possible time missed.
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI)
ECR WR38 | ADP WR35
DeAndre Hopkins wasn’t completely washed last season, but his days as an elite alpha wide receiver could be over. Last season he was the WR21 in fantasy points per game as he logged his first season since 2017 outside the top 20 in targets per snap. Hopkins only commanded a 20.5% target share which was good for 35th among wideouts. While the suspension should ensure that Hopkins will return fully healthy, it’s not a sure thing that we don’t see his numbers decline further in 2022. He ranked 31st in yards per route run last season (minimum 50 targets, per PFF).
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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