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6 Players Experts Like More or Less Than ADP (2022 Fantasy Football)

Aug 10, 2022
T.J. Hockenson

Preparing for your fantasy football draft is the best way to win your league. Two useful tools to help you prepare are the FantasyPros expert consensus rankings and average draft position.

The expert consensus rankings (ECR) are the combined averages of 154 fantasy football experts’ rankings. The average draft position (ADP) is the average pick each player gets drafted in fantasy drafts from multiple platforms.

Looking at the differences between the ECR and ADP is a useful way to help you prepare for your fantasy draft. The ECR will provide you with the combined opinion of 154 fantasy football experts, while the ADP will provide a general opinion on how the public values every player.

Most of the time, the ECR and ADP will be similar. Rarely does the ECR have a player ranked high up while the ADP has them drafted later on and vice versa. That said, let’s look at three players the ECR likes more than the ADP and three players the ADP likes more than the ECR.

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.

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Players the ECR likes more than the ADP

Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN): ECR: 4 | ADP: 7.5

While Cook had a disappointing 2021 season, finishing as the RB16, you should feel confident using a top-five pick on him this year. Despite unusual touchdown regression, Cook still had nine top-24 weekly finishes in 12 games last season (75%). He was also the RB9 on a points-per-game basis among running backs with at least nine games played.

More importantly, his yards per rushing attempt from last year (4.7) matched his career average. After scoring 30 touchdowns the previous two years, Cook scored only six last season. You should expect massive positive touchdown regression and another high-end RB1 season from Cook in 2022.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND): ECR: 28 | ADP: 41.3

Pittman is a very popular breakout candidate for this season. Last year, he was the WR17, averaging 14 fantasy points per game. Pittman had seven top-24 weekly finishes and a 25% red-zone target share. Furthermore, he had a route participation rate of 98.1%, one of the highest in the NFL. More importantly, Pittman was the focal point of the Indianapolis passing attack last season, seeing 17 red-zone targets, 42 third-down targets, and 16 deep targets.

During the offseason, the Colts traded for Matt Ryan, giving Pittman arguably the best quarterback of his career. Furthermore, they did very little to threaten his 25.7% target share from last season. Meanwhile, all the reports out of training camp further suggest Pittman is in line for a breakout season. The ECR has Pittman as the WR12, while the ADP has him as the WR13. I believe Pittman is due for a top-10 finish this year and have him as the WR7 in my rankings. Be sure to draft him way ahead of his ADP.

Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ): ECR: 73 | ADP: 85.3

While his rookie year was cut short by injuries, Moore showed plenty of potential over his final few games of the 2021 season. Over the last five games of the year, Moore averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game. He scored at least 13 fantasy points in all but one contest. He also scored 20.5 fantasy points or more three times. More importantly, Moore was the WR2 during those five weeks, only behind Justin Jefferson.

Moore has been a superstar so far in training camp. Reports are he is the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver on the team despite the Jets using a top-10 draft pick on Garrett Wilson this year. The fact that Moore is running away with the No. 1 job shouldn’t come as a surprise given his efficiency last season. He averaged 1.79 fantasy points per target for the year and 3.32 fantasy points per touch over his final five games. Some might have concerns about his quarterback. However, Moore is ranked too low in the ECR and should get drafted before the seventh round.

Players the ADP likes more than the ECR

Josh Allen (QB – BUF): ADP: 21.8 | ECR: 34

No quarterback has been better the past two years than Allen. He has been the QB1 in back-to-back seasons in four points per passing touchdown scoring. Allen had 10 top-12 weekly finishes last year, including eight top-six weekly finishes. He has averaged 271.2 passing yards, 2.2 passing touchdowns, and only 0.8 interceptions per game since the Bills acquired Stefon Diggs in 2020. More importantly, Allen has averaged 0.74 fantasy points per pass completion the past two years.

However, the Bills might try to limit Allen’s rushing attempts this season after he totaled 224 rushing attempts over the past two seasons. While it won’t drop to zero, 25.3% of Allen’s fantasy production over the past two years came on the ground. The addition of James Cook likely means more passes to running backs, and fewer quarterback runs this year. Allen has a real chance to have his third straight overall QB1 finish in 2022. However, the quarterback position is so deep this year that it is a mistake to use a second-round pick on him.

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS): ADP: 39.5 | ECR: 46

Gibson had arguably the worst offseason of any player this year. After averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game over his final six games last season, Gibson was close to a likely top-10 ranking in 2022. J.D. McKissic reportedly agreed to a deal with the Bills in free agency. However, the Commanders made a last-minute attempt to keep him, and the veteran re-signed with the team. Then, Washington used a third-round pick on Brian Robinson. In a few weeks, Gibson went from a likely RB1 to part of a full-blown running back by committee situation.

To make matters worse, Gibson will likely see very few valuable touches. McKissic will continue his role as the pass-catching and third-down back, while Robinson will reportedly handle most of the short-yardage and goal-line work. Thus, this leaves Gibson with the rushing attempts between the 20s. Furthermore, he has missed practice time during camp because of an injury and has struggled with injuries throughout his career. The Commanders also upgraded their passing attack with the additions of Carson Wentz and Jahan Dotson this offseason. The fact that Gibson is getting drafted early in the fourth round as the RB19 is crazy.

T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET): ADP: 67.3 | ECR: 74

Last year, Hockenson was a popular breakout candidate given the lack of proven weapons in Detroit. Unfortunately, he ended the year as the TE15 after he played only 12 games because of injuries. However, Hockenson was the TE6 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 12.1 fantasy points per contest. While his points-per-game average is encouraging, Hockenson had a 21% target share and a 23.7% red-zone target share despite a lack of weapons around him.

Unfortunately for Hockenson, much has changed in Detroit. The Lions re-signed Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond. They also added D.J. Chark in free agency and traded up during the NFL Draft to secure Jameson Williams. While these new additions won’t crush Hockenson’s target share, they will limit it. More importantly, Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift are coming off productive years last season and expect to have massive roles this year. Hockenson isn’t a bad low-end TE1 option. However, the ADP has him drafted ahead of Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz. That is a mistake you should avoid making.

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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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