Week two of NFL DFS was quite eventful if folks followed along with some of the value picks from last week. Of the eight potential values mentioned, five landed in the top twelve of their respective positions, including two that went top six.
Hopefully, that landed some of our readers into profits in their lineups, which of course, is the overall goal.
This week, we look to build on that success and identify some key values at each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel contests.
Let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Allow some clearing of the air before we get down and dirty here; Kirk Cousins stunk for fantasy and real-life football purposes last week. As it turns out, due to an undisclosed (and probably imaginary) medical condition, Cousins is nearly fatally allergic to bright lights. Apparently, stadium illumination during prime-time games qualifies. He is expected to recover fully and be ready for game time on Sunday.
Week two of NFL DFS was quite eventful if folks followed along with some of the value picks from last week. Of the eight potential values mentioned, five landed in the top twelve of their respective positions, including two that went top six.
Hopefully, that landed some of our readers into profits in their lineups, which of course, is the overall goal.
This week, we look to build on that success and identify some key values at each position for both DraftKings and FanDuel contests.
Let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Allow some clearing of the air before we get down and dirty here; Kirk Cousins stunk for fantasy and real-life football purposes last week. As it turns out, due to an undisclosed (and probably imaginary) medical condition, Cousins is nearly fatally allergic to bright lights. Apparently, stadium illumination during prime-time games qualifies. He is expected to recover fully and be ready for game time on Sunday.
Okay, seriously, folks…it was awful. But, it is over. Turn the page like so many opponents will not be doing. So many DFS players will be off of Cousins this week that his ownership percentage will likely fall to under five percent. Honestly, after the full serving of stink-burger he served up last Monday night, I was hoping he would be cheaper because he is a good pick this week.
After an embarrassing road game, a home matchup against a divisional opponent, the Detroit Lions, is a fantastic get-right opportunity. Since 2017, Cousins has played in 63 games. Eight of which were against the Lions. In the 55 other games, Cousins is averaging 18.2 fantasy points, 257.3 passing yards, and 1.9 touchdowns per contest. In the eight games during that same span against the Lions, he is averaging; 20.6 fantasy points, 279.6 passing yards, and 2.2 touchdowns per contest.
Honestly, I’d like him a lot more if the salary was a little bit lower, but he still feels like a solid value and is not expected to command a higher rostered percentage.
FanDuel
Yes, both quarterbacks in this game are good values. A divisional matchup, good weapons on both sides of the field, and an over/under of 50.5 make this a good matchup to target for fantasy and betting purposes. Those who play multi-lineups would benefit from stacking some of these players as well.
Through two games, Goff is averaging 35.5 passing attempts for 235.5 passing yards per game and has six touchdowns to only one interception. His 21.27 fantasy points per game are higher than many of his fellow quarterbacks in this price range, and they very well could spend plenty of time playing from behind in this matchup.
The downside to Goff is his lack of big plays. He probably won’t sniff more than 265 passing yards but will gain solid chunks on short to intermediate targets. He is safe and a threat to throw two or more touchdowns in a game with some shoot-out appeal. With weapons at all three levels between Amon Ra St-Brown, D’Andre Swift, and T.J. Hockenson, Goff just has to play competent football to put up a safe amount of points at a slightly discounted salary.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Preseason murmuring made David Montgomery seem like an outcast in the Bears’ new offensive scheme. Two games in, no one is exactly sure of what that scheme actually is, but the one constant has been volume for Monty. Despite him ceding some goal-line opportunities to Khalil Herbert in week one, he has seen the ninth-most carries and rushing yards among all running backs. It’s also worth mentioning that he had double-digit carries in every game he played last season and both games this season.
While it is difficult to hang too much emphasis on target share in the lowest passing volume in the league, Monty is responsible for 21% of the Bears’ targets thus far. He is second on the team on targets (six) and first on the team in receptions with five. Full disclosure, it has only resulted in 38 receiving yards.
The Texans are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points and a healthy 4.7 yards-per-attempt average so far this season. Montgomery may not win a week in this matchup, but the expected volume versus the sub-$6000 salary makes him an intriguing value prospect.
FanDuel
Full disclosure, this is a swing for the fences based on the situation. Josh Jacobs missed practice with an illness and did not travel to Nashville with the team. While the news could come down after this is published that he traveled separately, there is enough concern here to make some alternative plans both in seasonal fantasy and in DFS.
At this time, it seems unlikely that Jacobs will suit up and play, leaving Zamir White as the presumed lead dog in a likely committee situation with Brandon Bolden. Bolden profiles more as the third-down role, leaving the primary between-the-tackles work to White.
The Titans are allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs.
This pick is far from a sure thing and would be much less of a play if Jacobs travels sometime on Saturday. Pay attention to official reports before lock. The potential volatility of the play makes it better suited for those who enter multiple lineups.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Reunited with his college quarterback, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown has yet to completely live up to expectations in Arizona. The daydreams of being absolutely peppered with deep targets in the absence of DeAndre Hopkins have yet to come to fruition. However, there is evidence of good things to come.
Through the first two games, Hollywood leads the team in targets (17) and yards per reception (11.1) while maintaining a 19.8% target share. He is only one reception and seven receiving yards behind Greg Dortch in those categories. He leads the team in snap share percentage with 93.5% and snaps per game. Furthermore, his 100% third-down snap percentage also leads the team. In short, Brown is heavily involved and a priority in high-value target situations.
The Los Angeles Rams have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position and have allowed five receiving touchdowns to receivers in two games. With the Rams being expected to hang points on the board, expect the Cardinals to have to lean on a more aerial game plan.
The big game is coming for Brown, and a potential shoot-out feels like a great time to lock him into some lineups, with Dortch ($4300) being the contrarian play.
FanDuel
There is plenty of reason to believe that this is the game in which Carson Wentz returns to earth. After the first two weeks, he is surprisingly sitting pretty at QB4 overall. However, that is after playing against the Jaguars and the Lions, respectively. The Eagles’ defense should prove to be more formidable and test Wentz and his shiny new weapons.
Enter Curtis Samuel from stage left. Jahan Dotson has been nothing short of impressive and lands in a similar salary range. However, his success has been largely based on three touchdowns over a two-game span, which is less than likely to continue. In that same span, Curtis Samuel has had 25 opportunities. His versatile skill set has kept him busy in this offense for savvy DFS players, relying more on opportunity than touchdowns is the more favorable path to follow.
Samuel is averaging 17.29 fantasy points per game and is less likely to draw the attention of Darius Slay with Terry McLaurin on the field. Samuel should benefit from both his versatile role in the offense and the less defensive attention. At the cost, he feels like the better value among the three receivers.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Honestly, this feels a little dirty. If there is anything we have learned from seasonal fantasy football, it is that the moment one starts to trust Tyler Higbee, he will put up a dud. This feels more like than exploit than a selection based on trust.
Does Higbee lead tight ends in scoring, points-per-game, or touchdowns? Nope. Not even close. He does, however, lead the position in targets (20), second in receptions (12), and sixth in yards with 110. The lack of touchdowns has suppressed his scoring and therefore kept his salary at a modest level. He is lining up on 91.7% of third-down snaps and 100% of red zone snaps.
Care to take a wild stab at what team is allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends? You got it, the Arizona Cardinals. They allowed 122 receiving yards and two touchdowns to the Chiefs tight ends in week one and 80 yards and another score to the Raiders in week two.
With Van Jefferson still sidelined with injury, an affordable salary, and a plus matchup with touchdown upside, Higbee is a solid value for this week’s slate.
FanDuel
For seasonal redraft purposes, Kyle Pitts was largely overdrafted. Once he’s drafted, there is no market correction that can occur. That is part of the beauty of DFS. The prices do not remain static. Due to his 2.9 fantasy points-per-game average, his salary went down another $300. At $5,600, he is priced at a slate-breaker value if he hits. Which has yet to occur.
The Seahawks are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends. They have allowed 123 receiving yards and one score to the position through the first two games.
While there is plenty of risks associated with this play, there is also a sizable upside that is possible. As a sideways example, David Njoku also did very little through the first two games and put up studly numbers in Thursday night’s game. It can happen, and with Pitts, it just feels like a matter of time before it occurs. A good matchup is a good first step to his first big game of the season. Again, due to risk, Pitts is best utilized for players who put in multiple lineups.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.
