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Colts vs. Broncos DFS Advice: Optimal Lineups, Targets, Strategy (2022 Fantasy Football)

by Mike Maher | @mikeMaher | Featured Writer
Oct 6, 2022
Colts vs. Broncos DFS Advice: Optimal Lineups, Targets, Strategy

Daily Fantasy Contests require a different strategy than what you use to set your weekly lineups, and that’s even more true for these “island” or “standalone” games (Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football, etc.). In these contests, you typically have only a handful of lineup spots and players from just two teams to choose from. If you want to win money (or at least win “big” money in GPP contests), you have to be savvy and take some risks.

I’ll walk you through the current optimal lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings via our DFS Lineup Optimizer and share some of my notes and strategies for this particular matchup. Note: these are the current optimal lineups. For updated lineups based on adjusted projections throughout the day, be sure to access the DFS Lineup Optimizer tool.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.

Optimal Lineups

Before we get started, here’s a relevant Melvin Gordon note:

FanDuel Optimal Lineup (GPP)

Week 4
POS PLAYER PROJ. PTS SALARY
1.5x R. Wilson
IND @ DEN
34.4 $16,500
FLEX M. Ryan
IND @ DEN
19.7 $15,000
FLEX N. Hines
IND @ DEN
12.7 $11,000
FLEX Denver (DEN)
IND @ DEN
12.5 $10,000
FLEX A. Pierce
IND @ DEN
10.0 $7,500
Totals 110.3 $59,500

 

Notes

Double quarterback stack, check. Backup RB in a starting role this week, check. Solid affordable lineup builder (Alec Pierce), check. The optimizer is going with a floor player with the Denver defense, which I’m kind of 50/50 on. On the one hand, you’re pretty much guaranteed to get some points and have the chance for more with multiple turnovers or a defensive touchdown. On the other, it’s kind of a low-ceiling play.

In GPP, I usually want to take a bigger swing somewhere. Maybe that swing is Pierce, but that feels unlikely against this defense. This feels more like a “finish in the money” lineup than a “take home the bag” lineup, which is fine. But I like to take big swings in GPP.

I might use this lineup in one contest just to see if it cashes. For my bigger swing, I’m probably doing something like this:

DraftKings Optimal Lineup (GPP)

Week 4
POS PLAYER PROJ. PTS SALARY
CPT R. Wilson
IND @ DEN
27.3 $15,600
FLEX J. Jeudy
IND @ DEN
13.6 $7,800
FLEX M. Ryan
IND @ DEN
15.0 $9,600
FLEX C. Sutton
IND @ DEN
16.0 $9,400
FLEX N. Hines
IND @ DEN
12.6 $6,800
FLEX P. Lindsay
IND @ DEN
3.5 $400
Totals 97.6 $49,800

 

Notes

DraftKings makes you declare two players before it lets our lineup optimizer provide your best lineup. So, unlike FanDuel, this lineup won’t be universal because it depends on your initial choices.

I had to play around with the optimizer a bit to see which two lineup builders gave me the best lineup. This is the one I settled on. This is all pretty chalk except for the extremely cheap $400 Phillip Lindsay, which allowed for the rest of the stacked lineup. We have no idea what the Indianapolis backfield is going to look like tonight except for the fact that Nyheim Hines is expected to step into the RB1 role. But Lindsay and fellow RB Deon Jackson are expected to play. If the rest of this lineup performs as expected, we’re a Lindsay goal-line carry away from smashing this contest.

Yahoo Optimal Lineup (GPP)

POS PLAYER PROJ. PTS SALARY
1.5x R. Wilson
IND @ DEN
34.4 $25
FLEX M. Ryan
IND @ DEN
19.7 $20
FLEX C. Sutton
IND @ DEN
15.4 $18
FLEX M. Pittman Jr.
IND @ DEN
15.2 $17
FLEX M. Gordon III
IND @ DEN
15.1 $19

 

Notes

This is about as chalk as it gets. It’s rare that a DFS platform will allow you to start the entire Top 5 our projections, but here we are. This is essentially a cash lineup for a GPP contest, and you’re likely splitting the pot with multiple people even if you win with this lineup because of how the salaries work out. But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t play it. If Yahoo is giving these odds, roll with it and see what happens.

The other value here is Nyheim Hines at only $12. Normally, that’s the kind of value you take advantage of in order to build a lineup with premium options. But Yahoo is allowing us to fill our lineup with those players even without a lineup builder this week. I’ll still include Hines in one of my lineups just because of his increased role, but I’m happy to go with the chalk on Yahoo here. This is a tough week to win big money with these salaries.

OwnersBox Optimal Lineup (GPP)

POS PLAYER PROJ. PTS SALARY
QB M. Ryan
IND @ DEN
19.7 $6,500
RB M. Gordon III
IND @ DEN
16.6 $5,500
RB N. Hines
IND @ DEN
16.1 $5,100
WR C. Sutton
IND @ DEN
18.2 $6,200
WR J. Jeudy
IND @ DEN
15.3 $5,900
TE J. Woods
IND @ DEN
8.1 $3,500
FLEX M. Pittman Jr.
IND @ DEN
18.3 $6,400
FLEX A. Pierce
IND @ DEN
11.6 $4,000
SF R. Wilson
IND @ DEN
22.9 $6,700

 

Notes

Unlike the other platforms, OwnersBox still uses full lineups for island games. So, this lineup will be different from the others, and you are almost forced to use a couple of dart throws in order to affordably build your lineup. OwnersBox also defines the positions and includes a superflex slot, as opposed to the MVP/Flex setup.

The Melvin Gordon and Nyheim Hines prices here are clutch and allow us to build out a mostly stacked lineup, even with the additional lineup slots. The main dart throw is Jelani Woods, who is a touchdown-dependent TE. Mo Ali-Cox is about $700 more expensive and would cause us to have to make cuts elsewhere, so I’m good with the Woods dart throw.

Lineup Builders

Both Quarterbacks (Russell Wilson, if you have to pick)

Alec Pierce (WR – IND) – starting role but mostly affordable across the platforms

Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN)

Nyheim Hines (RB – IND)

Dart Throws

The strange pricing this week because of the Javonte Williams and Jonathan Taylor injuries means we don’t need many dart throws across the platforms. These are the ones I liked when reviewing:

K.J. Hamler (WR – DEN)

Phillip Lindsay (RB – IND)

Jelani Woods (TE – IND)

Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.

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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

DFS, DFS Advice, DraftKings, FanDuel, Featured, Featured Link, NFL, OwnersBox, Yahoo Daily