Week 8 is upon us and we have some familiar units for our matchup of the week with New England traveling to New York to take on the Jets. This should be a great matchup of two units that have a few weak spots.
I am looking forward to seeing if the Jets can continue to ascend as a defense. Quinnen Williams has established himself as one of the premier interior linemen in the NFL, but he gets his toughest test of the season this week.
Matchup of the Week
New England Patriots OL (11th in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ New York Jets DL (19th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)
Two months ago, this was a mismatch on paper but New York’s defensive line has played itself into one of the top units in the league. The Jets have held their last four opponents to 20 points or less and rank 10th in the league in pass DVOA. New England will try to slow this game down and, given the state of their quarterback situation, should lean on the running game. The Jets rank 3rd in the league in YPC allowed, however, so New England will have its hands full.
Williams continues to be one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL with a 90.1 grade from PFF. Patriots center David Andrews (concussion) will not play. so backup James Ferentz will combine with guards Cole Strange and Michael Onwenu to matchup on Williams. If the Patriots can neutralize Williams, this will be a problem at the second level for the Jets. With Mac Jones looking awful on Monday night, the Patriots should have a game plan that focuses on establishing the run.
Marcus Cannon replaced Isaiah Wynn at right tackle on Monday night but gave up three QB pressures. This is the spot for New York to attack with their pass rush, so look for John Franklin-Myers and Carl Lawson to try and take advantage. New York has done a terrific job of getting pressure without blitzing this year, ranking 6th in pressure rate and 31st in blitz rate. Jones is just a 40% passer under pressure and we saw Monday how shaky he can be with defenders in his face. If the Jets can sit back in coverage while Franklin-Myers, Lawson, and Williams get home, it will be a long day for New England.
From a fantasy lens, this game won’t wow us. Both of these teams play at a slow pace and will look to run the football. I am avoiding Jones this week and most of the pieces of the Patriots’ receiving corps. Even before his injury, Jones had yet to clear 20 fantasy points in a game. I don’t see him ending that streak this weekend. I think most people will flock to Rhamondre Stevenson, whom I love in a vacuum. If he continues to see a 70% snap share, I would be fine rolling with him as his pass-game involvement and green zone role are solid. I do have some concerns with the overall game environment and the presence of Damien Harris so if you can live with that context, fire him up.
Defensive Line Matchup to Watch
Carolina Panthers DL (24th in FantasyPros DL Rankings) @ Atlanta Falcons OL (14th in FantasyPros OL Rankings)
Carolina is coming off a big against Tampa Bay where they held the Buccaneers to just three points. Now they get an Atlanta team that is one of the most run-heavy in the NFL. Despite getting down by 21 points in Week 7, Atlanta attempted just 13 passes with Marcus Mariota. Atlanta wants to keep the ball on the ground to win, which sets up for them to wear down a Carolina defense that has wilted in the second half of games this year. How well the Panthers’ defensive line can hold up will be a big determining factor here.
Carolina boasts a stud interior with third-year man Derek Brown anchoring the defensive line in the middle. He has a sparkling 89.1 PFF grade and is on the way to having a career year. He and Matt Ioannidis form an above-average pairing in the middle but Ioannidis is questionable after being inactive for Week 7. If he is out, this would be a big blow to Carolina. Atlanta is 9th in the league in adjusted line yards and right guard Chris Lindstrom is a big reason why. He has been terrific this year and the Falcons will look to run behind him.
On the outside, Carolina boasts Brian Burns who is blossoming into one of the better edge rushers in the NFL. The Falcons have given up 17 sacks, which ranks 23rd in the league, despite averaging just over 21 pass attempts per game. Marcus Mariota’s scrambling ability has probably saved this number from looking worse. Jake Matthews and Kaleb McGary have both struggled this year so I’d look for Burns to have some chances but the Falcons’ limited pass volume will damper that a bit.
This game won’t jump off the page but the winner of this game will claim sole possession of the 1st place in the NFC South. The matchup on paper looks better for Atlanta but I’m not so sure that is the case. Carolina held Tampa Bay to just 46 yards on the ground and if they can do the same Sunday, Atlanta will be forced into an uncomfortable spot. Neither Drake London nor Kyle Pitts is playable due to volume concerns and I don’t love Tyler Allgeier as a fantasy option either. He is touchdown-dependent and if he gets bottled up, he could tank your lineup. I lean towards the Panthers D/ST as the play I would want here. If Burns can get pressure off the edge, he could pop for a couple of sacks and I think Derrick Brown will have his way inside.
Offensive Line Matchup to Watch
New York Giants DL (29th in FantasyPros DL Rankings) @ Seattle Seahawks OL (26th in FantasyPros OL Rankings)
I think this is an excellent opportunity for the Seahawks’ offense and their O-Line rank should be a tick higher. They rank in the top 10 for both rush DOVA (10th) and pass DVOA (4th) on the season. They also currently rank 1st in the league in YPC and 8th in rushing yards. New York has been a run-funnel defense so far, ranking 2nd in rushing yards allowed and 30th in rush DVOA. Kenneth Walker is coming off a monster day in Week 8 and we should see more of the same on Sunday.
New York’s switch to a 3-4 defense has had mixed results, particularly against the run, as they have been getting gashed all season. One bright spot up front has been the play of Dexter Lawrence. He has been tremendous this year with a 90.5 PFF grade and four sacks to go along with three tackles for loss. Part of the issue here is that Leonard Williams has been hampered by a knee injury. He has played the last two games but he is not 100%. If Williams and Lawrence play well, that is one area where the Giants could have an advantage. None of Seattle’s interior line are world beaters and their best lineman, guard Gabe Jackson, is currently listed as questionable.
The real fun is on the outside where rookies Kayvon Thibodeaux and Charles Cross will match up. Cross has been up and down so far, surrendering three sacks and only garnering a 60.0 grade from PFF. Thibodeaux has slowly begun to work himself into the rotation at pass rusher in New York so these two should see plenty of one another on Sunday. Seattle has done a decent job of protecting Geno Smith this year, only allowing 16 sacks through seven games. Thibodeaux will need to play well as Smith has a 78.7% completion percentage from a clean pocket. If New York can’t get any push here, Tyler Lockett should feast.
Seattle could lean heavily on Walker for a couple of reasons despite their line being 22nd in adjusted line yards. New York is dead last in YPC allowed and the absence of D.K. Metcalf will call for Seattle to get the ball in Walker’s hands more. He and Tyler Lockett are the only two true weapons in this offense at this stage so there is a chance New York loads the box and forces Smith to win the game. If you want to be contrarian for fantasy purposes, this is a good week to buy low on the Seattle passing offense as Smith could have a field day if given protection. I’d be firing up Lockett in season-long and DFS tournaments, as he might see 12-15 targets. Walker is a fine play as he is always a threat to bust a 60-yard touchdown run.
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Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.