The recent explosion of online betting and new, inventive ways to play fantasy sports has most of our heads spinning. No House Advantage’s new app lets you stack over/under prop bets to win real money. I’ll be here weekly, giving you my favorite prop bet plays to help you build a winning stack.
Sunday Early Slate
- SF @ ATL – FOX
- NE @ CLE – CBS
- NYJ @ GB – FOX
- IND @ JAX – CBS
- MIN @ MIA – FOX
- CIN @ NO – CBS
- BAL @ NYG – CBS
- TB @ PIT – FOX
Alec Pierce (WR – IND) OVER 3.5 Receptions
Indianapolis Colts WR Alec Pierce has gained trust quickly with QB Matt Ryan. Pierce was targeted only twice in the season opener against Houston and was inactive for the team’s first match-up against Jacksonville in Week 2. However, Pierce has seen a steady uptick in targets the last three weeks, seeing a team-leading nine targets for eight catches and 81 yards receiving last week against the Denver Broncos.
Pierce has shown to be a reliable target for the struggling Ryan, and he was leaned on heavily by the aging QB in the second half of a close game in Denver. I expect more of the same this week against a better-than-expected Jacksonville squad. I like the over here for Pierce on 3.5 receptions and am playing it as a high priority.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF) UNDER 257.5 Passing yards
When QB Trey Lance went down for the season with a broken ankle, Niners’ Nation seemed suddenly relieved the team had resigned veteran signal-caller Jimmy Garappolo. While he has been serviceable and kept the team in contention at 3-2, he hasn’t been flashy. Although to be fair, head coach Kyle Shanahan also hasn’t asked him to do a lot. He has only thrown the ball 30 times once in three games, and his highest yards total (253) came last against a mediocre Carolina defense.
Up against an Atlanta Falcons defense that is allowing the fifth most passing yards to opposing QBs, this seems like a hard one to call. However, this game could be out of hand early, and despite a rotating crew of ball carriers, the 49ers have run the ball well this season, ranking eighth in the league in rushing yards (138.8). Shanahan is unlikely to change course and put more on Jimmy G’s plate, so I’m taking the under on this prop as a mid-priority play.
Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL) UNDER 48.5 Rushing Yards
It looked like we were in for another stellar first half of the season from veteran hybrid RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson. Sadly, that dream ended in Week 4 when Patterson headed to Injured Reserve with a knee injury. While Patterson will return at some point, we’ve been left with a three-way RB tandem in Atlanta. Last week, rookie ball carrier Tyler Allgeier led the team in carries over fellow RBs Caleb Huntley and Avery Williams, totaling 13 touches for 45 yards.
Heading into a Week 6 match-up against the San Francisco 49ers, the committee approach is likely to continue in the absence of Patterson. Add in the fact the 49ers’ defense is allowing a league-low 71.4 rushing yards per game, and it’s hard to see Allgeier getting anywhere near the 49 yards he needs to hit the over. So I’m gladly taking the under on this one and making it high priority pick.
Sunday Afternoon Slate
- CAR @ LAR – FOX
- ARI @ SEA – FOX
- BUF @ KC – CBS
Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR) OVER 101.5 Receiving Yards
It’s hard to bet against an elite talent like Rams WR Cooper Kupp on any prop, and this week is no different. Kupp heads into Week 6 ranked second in the league in receiving yards (527) behind only Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (547). The pre-season concerns that free agent acquisition Allen Robsinson would eat into his production have been silenced, and Kupp looks like the WR1 we saw all of 2021.
Heading into a match-up against a middle-of-the-road Carolina defense, QB Matthew Stafford will again be peppering Kupp with targets. Robinson has been a non-factor in the passing game, and with Van Jefferson on IR, there aren’t many other options. Couple that with the Rams confusing and ineffective RB corps, and 101.5 yards seems like low-balling. Kupp will crush this prop, and I’m playing it as a high-priority prop bet.
Geno Smith (QB – SEA) UNDER 2.5 Touchdown Passes
There is no denying that Seattle QB Geno Smith has been the surprise of the 2022 season thus far. He has been electric for the Seahawks, boasting a 75.2 completion percentage and a 9/2 TD-INT ratio. He will lead his team into Week 6 to face the division-rival Arizona Cardinals at home in a pivotal NFC East match-up.
While Smith has been electric, the Seahawks are coming into this game with excitement surrounding rookie RB Ken Walker. Arizona has been solid against the run on defense, except in the red zone, where they have allowed the second-most rushing yards (88) and 8th most rushing touchdowns (5). I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again; smart coaches hammer a team’s weakness. I expect a solid performance from Smith this week, but I expect the TDs to be the way of the ground game. I’m taking the under on 2.5 passing touchdowns for Smith but playing it as a low priority in case this one gets out of hand.
Travis Kelce (TE – KC) OVER 74.5 Receiving Yards
A trap many fall into when doing over/under prop bets is trying to be contrarian in the wrong place. There are times to wander from the beaten path, and there are times to stay the course. This is a time to stay the course. The Chiefs head into Week 6 facing a Buffalo Bills team that looks to be Kansas City’s biggest hurdle to getting to the Super Bowl. This is a pivotal game for both teams, and when we see games like this, the stars come out. That star for Kansas City, along with QB Patrick Mahomes, is TE Travis Kelce.
The Bills boasted an elite-level secondary to start the season, but injuries have put a kink in their armor. They managed to neutralize Baltimore TE Mark Andrews in Week 4, but this Chiefs offense is far more potent in many ways. Kansas City will need Mahomes and Kelce to connect repeatedly in what figures to be a very high-scoring game. I would be surprised to see Kelce under 100 yards receiving on the day, making this an easy over on 74.5 receiving yards. Because you never know, stick this one as a mid-priority play.
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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.
