The Steelers are entering the game on the heels of an upset victory at home. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have lost three games in a row. Nevertheless, the Dolphins are understandably more than a touchdown favorite at home in the return of their starting quarterback. The Steelers will also get a quarterback back after an early exit with a concussion last week. The changing faces at quarterback this year for both participants create a unique wrinkle for analyzing players in this game. So, the research for this showdown slate digs deeper to narrow the player pool for gamers to consider using on their DFS rosters.
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Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins
Spread: MIA -7.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
The Steelers are entering the game on the heels of an upset victory at home. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have lost three games in a row. Nevertheless, the Dolphins are understandably more than a touchdown favorite at home in the return of their starting quarterback. The Steelers will also get a quarterback back after an early exit with a concussion last week. The changing faces at quarterback this year for both participants create a unique wrinkle for analyzing players in this game. So, the research for this showdown slate digs deeper to narrow the player pool for gamers to consider using on their DFS rosters.
Check out all of our weekly fantasy football content
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins
Spread: MIA -7.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Steelers Analysis: Concussions will be the pre-game talk for this contest. Tua Tagovailoa is returning from a multi-week absence, and Kenny Pickett is one of the few players to return to play in the game immediately following suffering a concussion. I'm not a concussion expert. So, I found Brian Batko's article for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette to be fascinating. Regardless, Tua and Pickett are starting for their respective teams.
Pickett has attempted only 83 passes in his rookie season. He hasn't been flawless. Still, Pickett has flashed competence and has a cushy matchup this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins are 31st in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Pickett has also done a good job of avoiding sacks, taking only four of them. So, he's a viable option and can generate fantasy value in the team's pass-catching corps. Below is a table with Pickett's distribution to notable pass catchers on his 83 pass attempts, per the information at numberFire.
George Pickens has been the most productive player on Pickett's passes. As a result, he's easily my favorite bargain selection on the showdown slate. Meanwhile, Diontae Johnson has led the Steelers in targets, receptions and Air Yards on Pickett's passes. Sadly, he's been inefficient, though.
Zach Gentry's production was inflated by playing in the blowout loss to the Bills. So, Pat Freiermuth is the more attractive tight end on the Steelers. Further, he has a good matchup. According to Football Outsiders, Miami has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards per game (55.1) to tight ends, slightly more than the league average (50.5).
Najee Harris has been dreadful on the ground. In addition, Miami's run defense is stout, ranking seventh in DVOA. So, I suggest fading him. Instead, pivoting to Jaylen Warren as a punt is intriguing. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), since Week 4, Warren has run 50 routes versus 48 for Harris. Further, Warren has had 43 yards on five receptions compared to 23 on five for Harris.
The matchup is excellent for Pittsburgh's running backs in the passing game. The Dolphins have allowed the third-most receiving yards per game (52.2) to running backs this year. Therefore, Warren can pay off his modest salary with garbage-time check-downs if the Steelers are in a negative game script, as the game's spread suggests they'll be.
Dolphins Analysis: Miami's offense ran through their two stud wideouts when Tua was healthy. However, Jaylen Waddle has only been a limited participant in practice this week while nursing a shoulder injury. Can he explode for big plays and pan out as a selection if he's active? Yes.
Still, Tyreek Hill isn't on the injury report. So the healthier speedster is a more attractive option based on the injury report alone. But, of course, Hill was a monster with Tua slinging the pigskin earlier this year, hauling in 25 receptions for 368 yards and two touchdowns on 34 targets and 372 Air Yards. Thus, Hill is a no-brainer pick on this showdown slate.
Tua is the second-best option in Miami's passing attack. He might be rusty after a three-week absence. Still, his YAC-monster receivers can help him immensely while he rounds back into early-season form. Per Pro-Football-Reference, Tagovailoa is second in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (8.32 ANY/A) and first in Quarterback Rating and QBR. So, the lefty was highly efficiently leading Miami's offense.
Although, his numbers were inflated by torching the Ravens in Week 2. He wasn't as impressive from a DFS perspective against New England in Week 1 or Buffalo in Week 3. Moreover, the Dolphins had only six points when Tua was concussed with under six minutes left in the half against the Bengals in Week 4. Therefore, Tua isn't a bulletproof stud.
The forthcoming table shows the stats for a few pass-catchers on Tua's 115 pass attempts this season.
Mike Gesicki's modest numbers were achieved mainly in Miami's frantic comeback against the Ravens in Week 2. He had one reception for one yard in Week 1 and one for six in Week 3. So, the floor is low.
However, since Week 4, Gesicki has led the Dolphins in slot snaps (58). So, if Mike McDaniel is willing to use him as a jumbo slot, as Gesicki's been deployed in previous years and lately, he can help DFS rosters.
Finally, Raheem Mostert is Miami's lead running back. He's played at least 62% of the team's snaps each of the last three weeks, reaching as high as a 72% snap share in Week 4. Mostert has also dominated passing-game snaps, running 73 routes versus only 38 for Chase Edmonds since Week 4.
So, the game script should be good for Mostert for the 7.5-point favored Dolphins. However, his potential in the passing attack is the most exciting. As you can see on the table, Tua used his backs a bit earlier in the season. So, if Mostert can consolidate his and Edmonds's work, that would be nifty. Further, Pittsburgh has yielded the third-most receiving yards per game (52.2) to running backs. As a result, Mostert has multiple paths to piling up fantasy points in this contest.
Final Thoughts: Hill is my preferred captain/MVP. So, naturally, Tua is an excellent choice for correlation in a flex spot. Pickens is the player I covet from the Steelers the most on this slate. The other spots can be fleshed out with the mix of the featured players above.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
