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UPDATE NOTE (Sat. 11/19, 2 pm ET): This piece has been updated.
Here are my Week 11 favorites. These are the players who (in some combination) …
- Will probably be high in my rankings relative to the expert consensus rankings (ECR).
- Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Appear in my DFS player pool.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly Week 11 betting odds.
- Stand out in our industry-leading BettingPros NFL Prop Bet Analyzer.
- Catch my eye with their Week 11 projections.
I’ll update this piece by Saturday night with notes based on the week’s injury reports and news items. Before then, follow our NFL news desk for information on any breaking news. After the update, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my personal Week 11 rankings, not this article.
Note: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings.
Abbreviations: Fantasy points per game (FPPG), against the spread (ATS), over/under (O/U), adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A), expected points added (EPA), success rate (SR), completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), AirYAC (air yards and yards after catch).
FantasyPros Accuracy Contest
Week 11 Teams on Bye
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Miami Dolphins
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Freedman’s Favorite Week 11 Quarterbacks
Justin Fields (CHI) at ATL: Bears +3 | 50 O/U
- For the second game in a row, Fields lit up our Game Day app in Week 10 with a position-best performance, scoring 40.4 fantasy points on 12-of-20 for 167-2-1 passing and an electric 13-147-2 rushing.
- After posting horrible passing marks in Weeks 1-3 (15 attempts per game, 3.5 AY/A), Fields has been functional since Week 4 (23.1 attempts, 7.8 AY/A).
- Fields has elite Konami Code capability, ranking No. 1 among all quarterbacks with 104-749-6 rushing (per our Fantasy Football Stats Report) and No. 2 in carries inside the five-yard line (9, per our Red Zone Stats Report).
- The Falcons are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA (20.5%, per Football Outsiders) and No. 30 in dropback SR (51.6%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
Justin Fields weekly fantasy football finishes this season:
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 15, 2022
Check out my Week 11 early betting breakdown on Bears at Falcons.
Fields Update (Sat. 11/19): I expect CB A.J. Terrell (hamstring) and S Erik Harris (ankle) to return for the Falcons. Still, Fields is a top-five fantasy option this week and is No. 1 at the position in expected fantasy points (83.4), actual fantasy points (133.5) and fantasy point overperformance (50.1) over the past month. Check out my Week 11 fantasy points leaderboard.
Russell Wilson (DEN) vs. LV: Broncos -2.5 | 41.5 O/U
- The Broncos have significant offensive line injuries — LT Garett Bolles (leg, IR), C Lloyd Cushenberry (groin, IR) and backup OT Tom Compton (back) missed Week 10, and RT Billy Turner (knee) and backup C Graham Glasgow (shoulder) exited early — and Wilson has been subpar this year (career-low 7.0 AY/A), but …
- Wilson’s best game of the year came against the Raiders in Week 4, when he was the No. 3 quarterback with 26.5 fantasy points on 237-2-0 passing and 4-29-1 rushing.
- With all his struggles, at least Wilson is still willing to air it out, rankings No. 1 with 18 pass attempts of 30-plus yards (per our Advanced QB Stats Report).
- The Raiders are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA per play (0.234) and pass DVOA (31.2%).
I’m betting over 17.5 points for Wilson in the Week 11 No House Advantage Over/Under Challenge.
Wilson Update (Sat. 11/19): Bolles, Cushenberry and Turner are out, as are WRs Jerry Jeudy (ankle) and K.J. Hamler (hamstring) — but I expect LT Cameron Fleming (quad) and Compton and Glasgow to suit up. Wilson is a high-end QB2.
Daniel Jones (NYG) vs. DET: Giants -3.5 | 46 O/U
- In terms of efficiency, Jones is having the best year of his career with a 7.0 AY/A, 65.8% completion rate and 60.2 QBR (per ESPN).
- He’s not Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields, but Jones has a serviceable floor as a runner with a career-high 7.7 carries and 43.0 yards rushing per game.
- Jones has a five-star matchup against the Lions, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (23.7 FPPG, per our Fantasy Points Allowed Report).
Jones Update (Sat. 11/19): The Lions are without EDGEs Charles Harris (groin) and Joshua Paschal (knee), so Jones might experience less pressure in the pocket. Jones is a low-end QB1.
Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs. TEN: Packers -3 | 42 O/U
- After ranking No. 1 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.198) in his back-to-back 2020-21 MVP campaigns, Rodgers has struggled this year (0.056, No. 22), but he’s coming off his best performance of the season (14.2 AY/A, 224-3-0 passing) against a tough Cowboys defense.
- The Titans are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (20.2 FPPG) and last week were without CB Kristian Fulton (hamstring) and S Amani Hooker (shoulder).
- Rodgers is 67-36-3 ATS at home and 37-24-2 ATS in primetime (per Action Network).
“We’re not dead.”
– Aaron Rodgers
— GBP Daily (@GBPdaily) November 14, 2022
Check out my Week 11 early betting breakdown on Packers vs. Titans.
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) vs. ARI (in Mexico): 49ers -8 | 43.5 O/U
- Since joining the 49ers in 2017, Garoppolo is No. 5 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.137) — behind only Patrick Mahomes (0.177), Drew Brees (0.166), Deshaun Watson (0.144) and Joe Burrow (0.139).
- Against the Cardinals last year, Garoppolo had one of the best performances of his season with 326-2-1 passing on a 70% completion rate.
- The Cardinals are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (52.8%) and last week were without No. 1 CB Byron Murphy (back).
Garoppolo Update (Sat. 11/19): As of writing, Murphy is yet to return to practice. Garoppolo is a high-floor/low-ceiling QB1.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 11 Running Backs
Saquon Barkley (NYG) vs. DET: Giants -3.5 | 46 O/U
- In nine games, Barkley has 1,128 yards and six touchdowns, thanks in large part to his position-best playing time (56.2 snaps per game, 83% snap rate, per our Snap Count Leaders Report).
- The Giants might have a run-heavy game script as home favorites (-190 at BetMGM).
- No biggie, but Barkley at +1600 was my offseason Comeback Player of the Year pick: Enjoy that money (he’s now a -115 frontrunner at DraftKings).
- The Lions are No. 29 in defensive rush EPA per play (0.046).
Saquon Barkley = best RB in NFL?
– Rushing yards leader 🏆
– Most runs of 15+ yards
– 3rd most yards after contact
– 4th most missed tackles per attempt
– Over 100 yards per game 💯
– 36.5% of Giants total yards 🤯 pic.twitter.com/bFzjhEa3gW
— Mojo Markets (@mojo) November 15, 2022
Barkley Update (Sat. 11/19): The Lions are without EDGEs Charles Harris (groin) and Joshua Paschal (knee), so their defensive line might be even more vulnerable than it usually is. Barkley is my No. 1 fantasy back.
Christian McCaffrey (SF) vs. ARI (in Mexico): 49ers -8 | 43.5 O/U
- Since McCaffrey became a full-time player for the 49ers in Week 8, they are No. 1 in the league with a 35.2% target share for running backs (per our Targets Distribution Report), and McCaffrey has led the team with 15 targets.
- The Cardinals are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (28.1%).
- On top of his receiving production, McCaffrey has 32-132-2 rushing and a 34-yard touchdown pass in his two full games with the 49ers.
Derrick Henry (TEN) at GB: Titans +3 | 42 O/U
- After having just 107 yards and a touchdown on “only” 34 carries and a target in Weeks 1-2, Henry exploded in Weeks 3-10 with 970 yards and eight touchdowns on 168 carries and an intriguing 20 targets in seven games.
- For the season, Henry is No. 1 in the league with 503 yards after contact (per our Advanced RB Stats Report).
- The Packers are No. 30 in defensive rush SR (46.3%) and rush DVOA (8.4%).
Since Week 7, Derrick Henry has scored 100% of the Titans’ touchdowns. wow.
— LaQuan Jones (@RealDealFantasy) November 9, 2022
Jonathan Taylor (IND) vs. PHI: Colts +7 | 44.5 O/U
- As the No. 1 pick in most drafts, Taylor has massively disappointed … but he still has 696 yards in seven games and has averaged 18.4 carries and 3.9 targets per game.
- Taylor is coming off his best game of the season, ranking as the No. 1 running back last week with 23.3 fantasy points on 22-147-1 rushing and 2-16-0 receiving.
- The Eagles are No. 31 in defensive rush EPA per play (0.059) and No. 32 in rush SR (48.0%).
Jonathan Taylor took over every-down role in Week 10.
91% route participation 👀👀
7% target share
100% short yardage
50% inside five-yard line
100% long-down distance 👀👀
100% two-minute offense 👀👀
Hines trade = Taylor insulated from bad game scripts.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 14, 2022
Taylor Update (Sat. 11/19): The Eagles signed DTs Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph this week in an attempt to bolster their run defense. Even so, Taylor is a high-end RB1.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) at NYJ: Patriots -1.5 | 40.5 O/U
- Stevenson disappointed in Weeks 1-2 with 78 scoreless yards — but since Week 3 he has 112-546-4 rushing and 32-221-1 receiving on 39 targets in seven games.
- Even with RB Damien Harris in Weeks 7-8, Stevenson dominated with 19 and 23 opportunities.
- Against the Jets in Week 8, Stevenson had 143 yards on 16 carries and seven targets.
- Stevenson should be fresh off the bye, and the Patriots could rely on the running game as home favorites (-168 at FanDuel).
- In his 10 career games with 15-plus opportunities, Stevenson has averaged 17.9 FPPG (per FTN).
- The Jets have a ground-leaning funnel defense that ranks No. 6 against the pass (43.5% SR) but No. 25 against the run (43.9% SR).
Stevenson Update (Sat. 11/19): The Jets are without NT Sheldon Rankins (elbow). Stevenson is a low-end RB1.
Aaron Jones (GB) vs. TEN: Packers -3 | 42 O/U
- Among all lead backs, Jones is No. 1 in the league with a 52.5% Rush Percentage Over Expected (per Next Gen Stats).
- Despite splitting work with No. 2 RB A.J. Dillon, Jones has 966 yards and five touchdowns on 131 carries and 42 targets this year.
- On short rest, the Titans could be especially vulnerable in run defense given that last week they were without EDGEs Harold Landry (knee, IR), Ola Adeniyi (neck, IR) and Bud Dupree (hip), DT Jeffery Simmons (ankle) and LB Zach Cunningham (elbow).
Aaron Jones with a tribute to Marshawn Lynch 💀
— PFF (@PFF) November 13, 2022
Jamaal Williams (DET) at NYG: Lions +3.5 | 46 O/U
- No. 1 RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle) is dealing with injuries and has seen limited usage (13 carries, 12 targets) in three games since returning to action in Week 8.
- Even with Swift active, Williams has 216 yards and three touchdowns (plus a two-point conversion) on 50 carries and three targets over his past three games.
- Williams is No. 1 in the league with 16 carries inside the five-yard line.
- Under HC Dan Campbell, the Lions are 16-9 ATS as underdogs.
Check out my Week 11 early betting breakdown on Lions at Giants.
Devin Singletary (BUF) vs. CLE: Bills -8.5 | 44.5 O/U
- With QB Josh Allen (elbow) suffering from an injury, the Bills finally used Singletary as a goal-line back last week, giving him all the team’s three carries inside the five-yard line, which he converted into two touchdowns.
- Since the Week 7 bye, Singletary has averaged a solid 11.7 carries and three targets per game with a snap rate of no less than 70% in any contest.
- Singletary could see a heavy workload as a big home favorite (-400 at Caesars).
- The Browns are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA per play (0.139) and rush DVOA (12.8%).
Devin Singletary continued to dominate Bills' backfield in Week 10:
65% Route participation
61% Rush atts
33% Short yardage (Duke Johnson sniped)
78% Long-down distance
100% 2-min offense
Nyheim Hines played a WHOPPING 8% of snaps in his second game with the Bills.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 14, 2022
Singletary Update (Sat. 11/19): The Bills-Browns game has been moved to Detroit because of snow in Buffalo. Now in a dome, this game has a high total of 49.5, so Singletary might have a better chance of finding the end zone. Singletary is a solid RB2.
David Montgomery (CHI) at Falcons: Bears +3 | 50 O/U
- No. 2 RB Khalil Herbert (hip, IR) exited Week 10 early with an injury and is out for Week 11.
- Even with QB Justin Fields and Herbert getting carries, Montgomery still has double-digit opportunities in every complete game this year.
- The Falcons are No. 29 in defensive rush SR (46.1%).
Antonio Gibson (WAS) at HOU: Commanders -3 | 40.5 O/U
- The debut of rookie RB Brian Robinson pushed Gibson to the No. 3 role in Weeks 5-6, but since then he has reemerged as a key committee contributor with 42-158-1 rushing and 15-101-2 receiving on 17 targets over the past month.
- Without pass-catching RB J.D. McKissic (neck), Gibson has led the Commanders backfield with a 52.1% snap rate over the past two games (per our Snap Count Analysis Report).
- The Texans are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (30.2 FPPG).
Imagine Fading Antonio Gibson.
— ᴄᴏᴅʏ ᴄᴀʀᴘᴇɴᴛɪᴇʀ (@CarpentierNFL) November 15, 2022
Gibson Update (Sat. 11/19): McKissic is out. Gibson is a low-end RB2.
Brian Robinson (WAS) at HOU: Commanders -3 | 40.5 O/U
- Last week, Robinson hit career-high marks with 26 carries, 86 yards rushing and a 52% snap rate, and he has had 15-plus opportunities in each of the past two games without rotational RB J.D. McKissic (neck).
- The Texans are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (46.3%) and rush DVOA (9.3%).
Robinson Update (Sat. 11/19): McKissic is out. Robinson is a low-end RB2.
Gus Edwards (BAL) vs. CAR: Ravens -12 | 43.5 O/U
- Edwards (hamstring) exited Week 8 early and missed Week 9, but he should be healthy out of the Week 10 bye.
- Edwards has played in just two games this year, but in his limited action he has 27-131-2 rushing and leads the position with a 72% utilization rate.
- The Ravens could have an extremely run-based offense as heavy home favorites (-700 at PointsBet).
- If Edwards is unable to play, backup RB Kenyan Drake will move aggressively up my rankings.
- The Panthers are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (24.1 FPPG).
- The Ravens have a week-high 28-point implied total in our Week 11 DFS cheat sheet.
Edwards Update (Sat. 11/19): Edwards is questionable, but I expect him to suit up after practicing (albeit limitedly) every day this week. He’s a check-the-news RB3.
Isiah Pacheco (KC) at LAC: Chiefs -7 | 50 O/U
- Last week, Pacheco had a career-best 16 carries, 82 yards rushing and 56% snap rate in his first game as the leader of the Chiefs backfield committee.
- The Chargers are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (27.4 FPPG).
Ok. we've arrived here.
Isiah Pacheco is a brewing league winner.
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) November 14, 2022
Freedman’s Favorite Week 11 Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) at MIN: Cowboys -1 | 47.5 O/U
- Lamb started the season slowly with 104 scoreless yards on nine receptions and one carry in Weeks 1-2, but he has 44-602-5 receiving and 4-6-0 rushing in seven games since then, and for the year he has a dominant 88 targets.
- Lamb ranks No. 1 at the position with his 32.1% target share (per our Advanced WR Stats Report).
- Last week, he was the No. 1 wide receiver with 32.5 fantasy points on 11-150-2 receiving and 15 targets.
- The Vikings are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (36.2 FPPG).
- Lamb is one of our top Week 11 DFS value plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The CeeDee Lamb game.
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) November 13, 2022
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) vs. SF (in Mexico): Cardinals +8 | 43.5 O/U
- Hopkins has either 98 yards or a touchdown receiving in every game this year and he’s No. 1 in the league with 11.5 targets per game (per our Weekly Target Report).
- The Cardinals could have a pass-heavy game script as large underdogs (+300 at SugarHouse).
- In his three games with the Cardinals against the 49ers, Hopkins has 28-286-1 receiving on 37 targets.
DeAndre Hopkins has played four games this season – he has at least 13 targets in three of them
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 14, 2022
Hopkins Update (Sat. 11/19): I expect QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) to start after opening the week with back-to-back practices. If he’s unable to play, backup QB Colt McCoy (knee) will likely start after getting in a full practice on Friday. Either way, Hopkins is a solid WR1.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) at NYG: Lions +3.5 | 46 O/U
- St. Brown (concussion) left Week 7 early with a head injury, was on bye in Week 6, played sparingly with an ankle injury in Week 5 (32% snap rate), missed Week 4 and left Week 3 early — but in his six games with a snap rate of at least 50% St. Brown has 44-496-3 receiving on 63 targets and 3-70-0 rushing.
- He could see extra targets without Nos. 2-3 WRs D.J. Chark (ankle, IR) and Josh Reynolds (back, out Weeks 9-10) and TE T.J. Hockenson (traded).
Amon-Ra St. Brown targets in last 12 games not impacted by injury:
12, 12, 11, 11, 11, 10, 12, 12, 9, 10, 9, 11
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 15, 2022
St. Brown Update (Sat. 11/19): Chark has a chance to play after being designated to return from IR, but he’s not certain to suit up, and I doubt that Reynolds (questionable) plays after missing practice on Friday. St. Brown is a locked-in WR1.
Tee Higgins (CIN) at PIT: Bengals -5 | 41.5 O/U
- Minus the two contests in which he was markedly impacted by injuries (Weeks 1 & 5), Higgins has had 39-537-3 receiving on 56 targets in seven games.
- No. 1 WR Ja’Marr Chase (hip) seems unlikely to play given the severity of his injury and his absence in Weeks 8-9 before the bye.
- In three full career games against the division rival Steelers, Higgins has 16-260-2 receiving on 23 targets.
- The Steelers are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (35.9 FPPG) and last week were without CBs Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) and William Jackson (back) and S Minkah Fitzpatrick (appendix).
Higgins Update (Sat. 11/19): Chase is out. Fitzpatrick will return to action for the Steelers, but Witherspoon and Jackson (IR) are out. Higgins is a solid WR1.
Chris Olave (NO) vs. LAR: Saints -3 | 39 O/U
- Despite exiting Week 5 early and missing Week 6 with a concussion, Olave had 29-390-2 receiving on 48 targets in six games without No. 1 WR Michael Thomas (foot, IR) in Weeks 4-10.
- Olave ranks No. 2 in the league — behind only Tyreek Hill — with 123.7 air yards per game (per RotoViz).
- Even with No. 1 CB Jalen Ramsey, the Rams are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (16.9%).
Terry McLaurin (WAS) at HOU: Commanders -3 | 40.5 O/U
- Since Week 7 — when backup QB Taylor Heinicke took over for injured starter Carson Wentz (pride/finger, IR) — McLaurin has been the best version of himself with 24-370-1 receiving on 36 targets in four games.
- In Heinicke’s 14 full starts last year, McLaurin had 71-940-5 receiving on 119 targets.
- The Texans are No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA per play (0.129).
Terry McLaurin vs Darius Slay 🍿
— PFF (@PFF) November 15, 2022
McLaurin Update (Sat. 11/19): No. 1 CB Derek Stingley (hamstring) is out for the Texans, so I have moved McLaurin up my rankings. He’s a low-end WR1.
Courtland Sutton (DEN) vs. LV: Broncos -2.5 | 41.5 O/U
- Andrew Erickson might finally get to see Sutton SZN: WRs Jerry Jeudy (ankle) and K.J. Hamler (hamstring) are uncertain for Week 11, and in their absence last week Sutton led the Broncos with 48 routes, 11 targets, six receptions, 66 yards receiving and 120 air yards.
- The Raiders are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (52.6%).
Sutton Update (Sat. 11/19): Jeudy and Hamler are out. Sutton is situation-based WR2.
Darnell Mooney (CHI) at ATL: Bears +3 | 50 O/U
- Since Week 4, when the Bears started passing more, Mooney has 32-437-1 receiving on 45 targets in seven games.
- The Falcons are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (36.2 FPPG).
An absolute dime 💰
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) November 6, 2022
Mooney Update (Sat. 11/19): I expect CB A.J. Terrell (hamstring) and S Erik Harris (ankle) to return for the Falcons. Still, Mooney is an upside WR3.
Drake London (ATL) vs. CHI: Falcons -3 | 50 O/U
- “I hurt myself today to see if I still feel. I focus on the pain, the only thing that’s real.”
- The Bears are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (29.6%) — and Drake is ostensibly a No. 1 pass catcher given that he leads the Falcons with 38-407-3 receiving and 62 targets.
Christian Watson (GB) vs. TEN: Packers -3 | 42 O/U
- In the absence of fellow rookie WR Romeo Doubs (ankle), Watson went off last week with 4-107-3 receiving on a team-high eight targets, and Doubs is unlikely to be ready for Thursday Night Football.
- The Titans are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (33.2 FPPG) and last week were without CB Kristian Fulton (hamstring) and S Amani Hooker (shoulder).
From two drops on the first drive to three TDs.
— NFL (@NFL) November 16, 2022
Mike Williams (LAC) vs. KC: Chargers +7 | 50 O/U
- Williams (ankle) last played in Week 7, but he’s slated to return to practice this week, so he has a shot to play — and if he does he could be without WR Keenan Allen (hamstring), who has played just 23 snaps since suffering an injury in the season opener.
- In his five games with QB Justin Herbert against the division rival Chiefs, Williams has 26-406-4 receiving on 39 targets.
- The Chiefs are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (37.2%), and Williams — not Allen — is the real No. 1 pass catcher for the Chargers.
Williams Update (Sat. 11/19): Both Williams and Allen practiced fully on Friday and are likely to play through their questionable tags. Williams is a low-end WR2 with upside.
Kadarius Toney (KC) at LAC: Chiefs -7 | 50 O/U
- Toney (28 snaps, 17 routes) played behind Marquez Valdes-Scantling (53, 34) and Justin Watson (46, 29) last week, but he also outproduced them with 4-57-1 receiving and 2-33-0 receiving.
- With No. 1 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) uncertain for Week 11, Toney might see an expanded role.
- The Chargers are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against supplementary wide receivers (45.1%) and are without No. 1 CB J.C. Jackson (knee, IR).
Toney Update (Sat. 11/19): Smith-Schuster and WR Mecole Hardman (abdomen, IR) are out. Toney is a risk-seeking WR3.
Darius Slayton (NYG) vs. DET: Giants -3.5 | 46 O/U
- Slayton was hardly used in the first month of the season, but since Week 5 he easily leads the Giants with 18-316-2 receiving, 26 targets and 311 air yards in five games.
- The Lions are Nos. 29-30 in defensive dropback SR (51.3%) and dropback EPA per play (0.205).
If you don't know… now you know 😏
— New York Giants (@Giants) November 15, 2022
Nico Collins (HOU) vs. WAS: Texans +3 | 40.5 O/U
- Last week, Collins had his best performance of the year with 5-49-1 receiving on 10 targets in his return to action from a groin injury, and in his six full games he has averaged a livable 6.2 targets.
- The Commanders are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (30.8%).
Kendall Hinton (DEN) vs. LV: Broncos -2.5 | 41.5 O/U
- WRs Jerry Jeudy (ankle) and K.J. Hamler (hamstring) are uncertain for Week 11, and in their absence last week Hinton had a full-time role with 77 snaps, 47 routes and five targets, which he leveraged into 4-62-0 receiving.
- The Raiders are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against supplementary wide receivers (46.5%) — and Hinton is the definition of a supplementary receiver.
Hinton Update (Sat. 11/19): Jeudy and Hamler are out, and I expect Hinton (shoulder) to play through his questionable tag. As a desperate flyer, Hinton is viable.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 11 Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC) at LAC: Chiefs -7 | 50 O/U
- Kelce is the No. 1 tight end with 17.3 FPPG, well ahead of Mark Andrews at No. 2 (12.6): The edge Kelce provides at the position is monstrous.
- Kelce is No. 1 at the position with 17 red-zone targets, 30 receptions of 10-plus yards and 11 receptions of 20-plus yards (per our Advanced TE Stats Report).
- Kelce had just 58 scoreless yards against the Chargers in Week 2 — but last year he had 17-295-2 receiving on 24 targets in two games against the division rivals — and this year he has either 90 yards or a touchdown in every game except the one against the Chargers.
Most Receptions among TE
Travis Kelce: 63
(Next closest: 47)
Most Rec Yards among TE
Travis Kelce: 740
(Next closest: 544)
Most Rec TD among TE
Travis Kelce: 8
(Next closest: 5)
Death. Taxes. Travis Kelce. pic.twitter.com/PxIbnGOOQf
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 15, 2022
Kelce Update (Sat. 11/19): WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) and WR Mecole Hardman (abdomen, IR) are out. Kelce is in a tier of his own.
George Kittle (SF) vs. ARI (in Mexico): 49ers -8 | 43.5 O/U
- Kittle had season-low marks last week with two targets, one reception and 21 yards receiving: This feels like a “keep him happy” bounceback spot.
- In his one game against the Cardinals last year, Kittle had 6-101-1 receiving on eight targets.
- The Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (28.2%).
Kittle Update (Sat. 11/19): Cardinals S Budda Baker (ankle) will likely play, but he’s dealing with an injury that was initially expected to keep him out for multiple weeks, so he’s not close to 100% capability. Kittle is an upside TE1.
Tyler Higbee (LAR) at NO: Rams +3 | 39 O/U
- No. 1 WR Cooper Kupp (ankle, IR) is out, No. 2 WR Allen Robinson is an objective underperformer (6.2 yards per target last year, 6.2 this year) and No. 3 WR Ben Skowronek is a moonlighting fullback.
- Higbee is No. 3 at the position with 65 targets and 44 receptions, and last week he led the Rams in targets (8), receptions (8) and yards receiving (73).
Due to a lack of pocket time, Stafford has been forced to hit short-field safety blankets at a high rate
Tyler Higbee has been a major benefactor; second in targets with a 20.6% target share on an EXTREMELY low 3.5 aDOT
Now with no Kupp, Higbee's PPR floor is 📈
— Aidan Maher (@Aidan_Maher17) November 15, 2022
Greg Dulcich (DEN) vs. LV: Broncos -2.5 | 41.5 O/U
- Dulcich has 13-193-1 receiving on 21 targets in four games since making his NFL debut in Week 6, and last week — without WRs Jerry Jeudy (ankle) and K.J. Hamler (hamstring) — Dulcich hit career highs with 71 snaps and 40 routes.
- Jeudy and Hamler are uncertain for Week 11, so Dulcich could see a boost in target volume.
- The Raiders are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (12.2 FPPG).
Dulcich Update (Sat. 11/19): Jeudy and Hamler are out. Dulcich is a solid TE1 — if such a thing actually exists.
Jack Stoll (PHI) at IND: Eagles -7 | 44.5 O/U
- No. 1 TE Dallas Goedert (shoulder) is out, so Stoll — the No. 2 tight end for the Eagles in terms of snaps (244) and routes (79) — will (theoretically attempt to) replace him.
- The Colts are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (25.0%).
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