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NFL Week 10 Injury Report Analysis (2022 Fantasy Football)

Josh_Allen

Josh Allen is a true game-time decision this week.

Week 10 is upon us and there are many injuries throughout the league. Follow us on Twitter (@SportMDAnalysis, @FantasyPros) and Instagram (@sportsmedanalytics, @fantasypros) for the industry’s #1 injury insights in real-time. Now let’s dive in.

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Josh Allen (QB – BUF)

Allen is a true game-time decision, but we’d lean slightly towards him sitting out in Week 10. Don’t expect a long absence, however. QBs can play through this injury if they have to, but sitting allows him to get a head start on healing without risking re-aggravation. It’s the safer play for the big picture of the season as a whole. If he misses Week 10, we’d anticipate a Week 11-12 return without much of a performance hit. As long as this is managed reasonably well, Allen should be at full strength well before the playoffs start.

Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)

Murray’s Week 10 status is TBD, and likely won’t be announced until right before the game. Based on his practice progression this week, the SportsMedAnalytics algorithm rates his probability of playing at just over 50%. There is an elevated re-injury risk here, however, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Cardinals sit Kyler in order to avoid any lingering issues with their franchise QB.

Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)

Another QB whose status will remain in the balance until Sunday. Based on his practice progression, our recent concussion protocol data suggests he’s likely to sit out Week 10 and return Week 11. When QBs come back, they do so with full production levels.

Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)

Samuel looks ready to play this week, which is right in line with typical hamstring return timelines. WRs and RBs return at 90+% production after moderate hamstring injuries, but they also carry an elevated (~15-20%) re-injury risk for the first 2 games back. After that, we’d expect him to be basically in the clear.

David Njoku (TE – CLE)

High ankle sprains for TEs average 4-5 weeks, and Njoku is only at 3. He’s out this week but is likely to return in Week 11 or 12. Performance dips most commonly last 6 weeks though, so we wouldn’t be looking to start him in his first week back regardless.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)

Zeke has now had 3 weeks to recover from an injury that averages 3-4 for RBs. He tends to be aggressive in his return timelines, so we’d expect him to play Week 10. However, it would be atypical to see him at full strength before Weeks 11-12, so we’re anticipating some short-term workload limitations.

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)

Taylor will play and should be nearly full strength from a per-play production standpoint. Our data indicates that RBs returning from low ankle re-aggravations generally see decreased snap counts in the first game back. However, with Nyheim Hines traded away and Deon Jackson out with injury, we’d anticipate essentially a full-strength JT in Week 10.

Darren Waller (TE – LV)

Re-aggravated hamstring strains average 4-6 weeks for TEs and WRs, but players like Waller who are in their thirties tend to have very high re-injury rates for the remainder of the year. He’s not an unreasonable buy-low candidate if your fantasy playoffs go late into the season, but he’s not a player we’re interested in targeting. Look at Keenan Allen‘s season as a cautionary tale for this case.

Mike Williams (WR – LAC)

Williams has an outside shot to return in Week 11, but severe high ankles for WRs trend closer to 5-6 weeks and he’s currently at only 3. Anticipate a return in Week 12 or 13 with a performance dip through Week 13.

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Keenan Allen (WR-LAC)

Allen re-aggravated his hamstring during the Week 8 bye. These injuries average 4-6 weeks, so it’d be surprising to see him on the field before Week 12 at the earliest. These injuries for older players do tend to linger, so we’re avoiding Allen for the rest of this season in all formats regardless.

Kenny Golladay (WR – NYG)

Now 6 weeks removed from spraining his MCL (knee), Golladay projects to return at full strength in Week 10. There’s not a ton of target competition with the Giants, but his pre-injury production was pretty minimal to begin with so it’s hard to imagine starting Golladay in most formats.

Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)

Given his age, timeline, and practice progression, the SportsMedAnalytics algorithm projects Dotson to return in Week 10 at ~90% of his full explosiveness. The re-injury risk here is significantly elevated (~20%) for the first two weeks back, but if he makes it through that window he should basically be in the clear.

Aaron Jones (RB – GB)

The injury video suggested a moderate-severity low ankle sprain, which would make Jones likely to play Week 10. His per-play production should be maintained, but historical data indicates that his backups are likely to see more touches than normal during the first game back.

Treylon Burks (WR – TEN)

Even though he’s now been activated to return from IR, we’d recommend caution about re-inserting him immediately back into lineups. Severe turf toe injuries generally cause performance dips that last 8 weeks, which would mean a lag in explosiveness until Week 12.

Romeo Doubs (WR – GB)

The week 9 video on Doubs suggested a severe high ankle sprain, which is an average of 5-6 weeks for WRs. The fact that the Packers haven’t put Doubs on IR suggests that they are hoping for a 4-week return timeline. Even if that ends up being the case, the return of full productivity takes the full 6 weeks for WRs so we wouldn’t be planning to start him before that regardless.

T.J. Watt (LB – PIT)

Watt should be back to full strength without limitations in Week 10. His pec tear is not likely to affect performance level or re-injury risk at this point, and our data suggests a similar outcome from his recent knee surgery.

Chase Young (DE – WAS)

Don’t expect Young to rush his return for this week or next. Now that he’s 1 full year removed from ACL surgery, Young is very likely cleared for all activities. However, on a losing team as a budding young star, there is minimal incentive for Young to ramp up quickly. Expect his return to the field in Week 12.

Budda Baker (S – ARI)

Baker is dealing with a mild high ankle sprain, which still tends to take 2-3 weeks for DBs to return from. Despite his return to practice this week, he’d be significantly beating the odds if he played. Expect him to return to the field most likely in Week 11.

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