Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football.
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Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers
- GB -2.5, O/U 42
- Titans vs. Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Slow. The best word to describe the play volume environments as Green Bay is 27th in neutral pace, and Tennessee is 31st.
- Each team has a well-established identity. The Packers have shifted to more of a run-balanced approach (15th in neutral passing rate), but they will still go only as far as Aaron Rodgers can take them. Tennessee is all Derrick Henry all the time, as they are fourth in neutral rushing rate.
Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill is a weekly QB2. Considering the make-shift wide receiver group he’s throwing to, Tannehill has played well this season. Tannehill is 18th in PFF passing grade and 11th in adjusted completion rate and yards per attempt (minimum 100 dropbacks). With his paper-thin receiving group, he’s only 29th in big-time throw rate. Green Bay is 21st in yards per attempt allowed, and since week 6, they are sixth in pass defense DVOA. The Packers have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.
Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers is still playing excellent football. He is ninth in PFF passing grade, third in big-time throw rate, and 14th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). The Christian Watson ascension could also restore his weekly ceiling possibilities with a healthy Allen Lazard. Tennessee is 11th in yards per attempt (tied), 14th in passing touchdown rate, and fifth in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Rodgers could rip them in half with the deep ball. The Titans have permitted the highest deep completion rate and the most deep passing yards in the NFL. Rodgers is a QB1.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry: It was bound to happen eventually. A team finally held Henry under 100 rushing yards. The Broncos were the first team to do so since Week 3. Despite that bump in the road, Henry is the RB5 averaging 24.2 touches and 119.7 total yards. The Packers don’t have a prayer in keeping Henry below the century mark this week. Henry is tenth in yards after contact per attempt, fifth in missed tackles forced, and 24th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Green Bay is ranked 25th or lower in rushing yards per game, EPA per rush, and explosive run rate allowed. The Packers have given up the tenth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Henry is a smash RB1.
Weeks 7-10
| Player | % of Rushing attempts | Target share | Routes per game | Red zone opportunities |
| Aaron Jones | 58.1% | 15.6% | 15 | 4 |
| A.J. Dillon | 36.2% | 4.1% | 7.8 | 4 |
Aaron Jones: Jones is the RB12 in fantasy as he has reclaimed his overwhelming lead role in this backfield. Since Week 7, in every game where he’s been healthy, he’s played at least 67% of the snaps averaging 22.3 touches and 129.6 total yards. Jones remains an incredibly explosive player ranking eighth in yards per touch, 17th in yards per route run, and seventh in breakaway run rate. Jones remains an RB1 despite a frightening matchup this week. The Titans remain an elite run defense, ranking second in rushing yards per game, third in EPA per rush, and ninth in explosive run rate allowed. They have surrendered only one rushing touchdown to running backs this season and the third-fewest fantasy points per game. Jones’ prospects don’t improve through the air against a team that’s fourth in DVOA against receiving backs with the fifth-lowest yards per reception conceded.
A.J. Dillon: Since Week 7, Dillon has been averaging 10.3 touches and 46.8 total yards with two top-36 finishes (RB30, RB35). Despite splitting the red zone work with Jones evenly over the last four games, Dillon hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. Dillon is a tackle-breaking volume back, ranking 13th in juke rate and 14th in evaded tackles but 46th in yards per touch and 43rd in breakaway run rate. Against a nightmare fuel run defense and a limited volume ceiling, Dillon is an RB3 with the ability to fall into the endzone any week.
Wide Receivers
Robert Woods: Different week, same story for Woods. An aging wide receiver with locker room and run game contributions (blocking) that are essential to the Titans’ real-life success but don’t matter in the slightest for fantasy football. Woods has crossed 40 receiving yards once this season. He has one red zone target over his last four games. His 4.8 targets per game are waiver-wire-worthy. Woods should not be rostered nor started in fantasy football. Woods will run about 67% of his routes against Jaire Alexander (58.5% catch rate, 66.6 passer rating) and Rasul Douglas (68.6% catch rate, 85.4 passer rating).
Treylon Burks: Burks returned to the lineup for the first time since Week 4. The Titans wasted no time reinstalling him into the offense with a 16.2% Target share (six targets) and 76% route run rate. The issue for Burks is not only the Tennessee offensive design but his role in the offense currently. Burks is being asked to operate as a short-area YAC receiver. Last week his aDOT was 3.3, and he only had a 7.4% air yard share. Burks remains a stash, as his role could evolve down the stretch, but this isn’t the week for him to be considered for your lineups. The Packers have yielded the ninth-lowest YAC, and the 13th-fewest missed tackles. Burks will run about 80% of his routes against Alexander and Douglas.
Allen Lazard: The Packers receivers might get to avoid dealing with Kristian Fulton this week, as he missed last week’s game (hamstring). We’ll have to see how the practice reports shake out, but in a short week, he may sit again. Last week Lazard only drew four targets dealing with Trevon Diggs for much of the game. He has a 20.8% Target share with 31.2% of the team’s air yards this season. Lazard is seventh in deep targets and 12th in red zone targets. Lazard is the WR19 in fantasy, ranking 32nd in PFF receiving grade and 36th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’s a WR2 that will run about 57% of his routes against Terrance Mitchell (61.9% catch rate, 99.2 passer rating) and the duo of Roger McCreary (75.5% catch rate, 107.4 passer rating) and Tre Avery (allowed all three targets in coverage to be secured, 158.3 passer rating). The Titans have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. If Kristian Fulton (53.7% catch rate, 83.4 passer rating) is active, bump Lazard down because he could shadow Lazard. Fulton and Mitchell would match up with Lazard for most of the game.
Christian Watson: The Christian Watson explosion game finally happened, and it was glorious. Breathtaking. A work of art. Ok. I know I’m laying it on thick here, but Watson has been a prospect I’ve loved since watching him shred corners at Senior Bowl practices. He commanded a 42.1% Target share, snagging four balls for 107 receiving yards and three scores. Watson finished as the WR3 in fantasy scoring for Week 10 behind only CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson. Only Watson (91.3% route run rate) and Allen Lazard were full-time players last week. This week, Watson is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 with a massive upside. He’ll run about 63% of his routes against Mitchell, McCreary, and Avery. If Fulton is active and he shadows Lazard, it will be Watson against Mitchell for most of the game.
Tight Ends
Robert Tonyan: Tonyan’s usage fluctuates weekly as his route run rate has dipped as low as 41% and risen as high as 84%. Yes, I know that’s a wide range of variability. Tonyan is a matchup-based TE2. He’s a viable streamer if you’re in a pinch. Tonyan has a 14.3% targets share, seeing six red zone targets (11th) this season. He’s finished as a TE1 twice this season. He’s 34th in PFF receiving grade and 15th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Tennessee is sixth in receiving yards and fifth in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
