Week 13 Player Notes & Start/Sit Advice

I’m assuming that Joe Mixon is going to clear the concussion protocol this week after missing Week 12. If not, Samaje Perine becomes a must-start. Mixon has gotten workhorse usage all season (15.8 carries and 4.1 catches a game. 91.9 yards from scrimmage per game), and with Mixon out last week, Perine had 17-58-1 rushing and 4-35-0 receiving against the Titans. Chiefs-Bengals has the highest Vegas total on the board at 52.5 points, so Cincinnati’s lead running back could be valuable this week, whichever one it turns out to be.

Even if Leonard Fournette returns from a hip pointer this week, Rachaad White may well remain the Buccaneers’ lead back. White has simply been the better player this season. Buccaneers beat writer Greg Auman of the Athletic has predicted that White will continue to get more snaps and touches than Fournette. I don’t love the matchup against the Saints, whose banged-up defense is starting to get healthy again, but I like that White offers dual-threat value as a runner and pass catcher.

On one hand, Dameon Pierce has carried 15 times for 16 yards over his last two games. On the other hand, Pierce has been terrific for most of the season and gets a juicy Week 13 matchup against a Browns defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against the run and has yielded 13 TD runs to running backs in 11 games. There’s a wide range of potential outcomes for Pierce this week.

Jeff Wilson investors have enjoyed a windfall ever since the veteran RB landed with the Dolphins, for whom he’s scored a touchdown in each of his first three games. But Wilson is outside the top 20 in this week’s RB rankings, partly due to a tough matchup against his old team, the 49ers, who have allowed a league-low 650 rushing yards to RBs this season, partly due to the possibility of Raheem Mostert‘s return from a knee injury that kept him out of action in Week 12.

One of the worst mistakes you can make in fantasy football is to make assumptions about game script. We can use point spreads and other measures of team strengths to assess probabilities of certain outcomes. But if you’re banking on a backup RB getting heavy garbage-time because you expect a game to be a blowout, you’re probably too far out over your skis. That said, I’m violating this principle with Kareem Hunt this week. I suspect that the Browns are going to be somewhat run-heavy because I don’t think they want a rusty Deshaun Watson throwing 40 times in his first game back from suspension. And while I’m not expecting the Browns to blow out the Texans, they’re 7-point favorites and are probably going to have a run-friendly game script against a Houston defense that has given up the most rushing yards to (1,591) and most TD runs (14) to running backs.

Undrafted rookie Zonovan “Bam” Knight had 14-69-0 rushing and 3-24-0 receiving last week in his first NFL game. Michael Carter left that game with an ankle injury, and his status for Week 13 is unclear. Recently acquired James Robinson was a healthy scratch for the Jets last Sunday. Knight may well have a role in the Jets’ backfield this week even if Carter suits up. If Carter doesn’t play, consider Knight a viable RB3.

Since Week 2, D’Andre Swift has averaged 5.0 carries a game. He’s averaging 4.4 targets a game, but he hasn’t been very efficient as a pass catcher this year. Swift is averaging 5.3 yards per target and hasn’t had more than 40 receiving yards in a game all season. I wouldn’t want to use him in fantasy this week unless backed into a corner.

I’m below consensus on A.J. Dillon this week, mostly because I’m not ready to readmit Dillon into the circle of trust after one decent game. Dillon’s 88 yards from scrimmage last week against the Eagles were the most he’s had since Week 1. Dillon’s touchdown vs. Philly was his first since Week 1. He faces a soft Chicago run defense on Sunday, but Dillon is averaging 10.4 carries and 2.5 targets per game, so I’m not expecting a lights-out performance from Quadzilla.

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