The Bills and Patriots meet for the first time in 2022. The visitors are favorites against the long-time AFC East kings. The two foes are markedly different. However, they’ll both likely take to the air early and often, reflected in the following player suggestions.
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Game: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Spread: BUF -4.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Bills Analysis: The Bills are a pass-centric offense. Further, they haven't changed their identity while Josh Allen plays through his elbow injury. According to numberFire, Buffalo has attempted 93 passes, Allen has rushed 18 times and non-quarterbacks have rushed 49 times in neutral game scripts since Week 10.
Allen has made a few wildly inaccurate throws, causing CBS broadcaster and former NFL quarterback Tony Romo to repeatedly suggest Allen's elbow injury might be to blame for the issues during Buffalo's thrilling comeback win against the Lions on Thanksgiving. Nevertheless, Allen has continued to uncork deep passes. He's completed 17 of 30 passes that traveled at least 15 Air Yards for 361 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the past three weeks.
Allen has fully participated in practice this week, which indicates he might be getting healthier. The matchup is also more inviting than meets the eye. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots are third in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). However, they've benefited from an exceptionally soft schedule against lousy quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson flamed them for 18 completions on 29 attempts for 218 yards, four touchdowns and one interception in Week 3. The mobile signal-caller also rushed for 107 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts against New England.
Kirk Cousins also eviscerated them last week, completing 30 of 37 passes for 299 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. In addition, the Vikings weren't worried about New England's pass defense, evidenced by attempting 38 passes and 26 rushes by non-quarterbacks when they were in a neutral game script.
The Patriots also memorably struggled to slow Justin Fields down on the ground. The second-year quarterback rushed for 82 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts in Week 7. And, of course, Allen has destroyed the Patriots in back-to-back meetings. In Week 16 and the Wild Card round of the playoffs last year, Allen combined for 51 completions on 72 attempts (70.8%) for 622 passing yards and eight touchdowns. The dual-threat quarterback also rushed for 130 yards on 18 attempts. Thus, Allen is the most exciting option on this showdown slate.
Stefon Diggs is the apple of Allen's eye and is thriving this year. He's fourth in receptions per game (7.6), third in receiving yards per game (100.9) and third in touchdown receptions (nine). Buffalo's No. 1 wideout has been sharp lately, too. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Diggs is second on the team in routes (120) and first in targets (35), receptions (24), receiving yards (253) and touchdown receptions (two) in Buffalo's previous three games.
Sadly, left tackle Dion Dawkins is out for this one with an ankle injury sustained last week. Dawkins is Buffalo's highest-graded offensive lineman, per PFF. As a result, Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox might see an uptick in short-area targets at the expense of vertical field-stretch Gabe Davis.
McKenzie had his most productive game of the year last week, hauling in six receptions for 96 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets and adding two rushes for seven yards as well. The diminutive wideout also had two stellar showings against the Patriots last year. He torched them for 11 receptions, 125 receiving yards, one touchdown and a negative-one-yard rush in Week 16. McKenzie didn't have as much success against them in the playoffs, but three receptions for 45 yards and three rushes for 29 rushing yards were rock-solid numbers.
Knox was third on the Bills in routes (106), targets (15), receptions (13) and receiving yards (144) in the past three games. He's also previously demonstrated rapport with Allen in the red zone and has a matchup that enhances his touchdown potential. Per Pro-Football-Reference, tight ends have scored the second-most touchdown receptions (eight) against the Patriots this season.
James Cook and Khalil Shakir are dice rolls for saving salary. Per PFF, the rookie running back was targeted seven times on only 17 routes (41.2%) from Week 10 through Week 12. Meanwhile, Shakir ran 27 routes during that timeframe, running 17 of them last week, his second-highest mark this year.
Patriots Analysis: The Patriots are a pass-heavy offense. In their past three games, they've attempted 77 passes and 49 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts. Mac Jones hasn't been otherworldly but had his best game of the year in Week 12. Jones passed for 382 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions on Thanksgiving. He's also been efficient on deep passes. In his last three games, Jones has completed 10 of 16 passes that traveled at least 15 air yards for 260 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Jones will probably be asked to shoulder the load this week. In addition to New England's recent passing tendencies, Buffalo's opponents have attempted 82 passes and 52 rushes by non-quarterbacks in their last three games. So, Jones is a viable option, albeit not a must-use pick.
Rhamondre Stevenson is New England's most attractive option. The second-year back is game-script proof. In fact, Stevenson's value is likely enhanced if the Patriots are in a negative game script. He's caught at least six passes in four of his last five games. New England's bell-cow back has also piled up yardage, reaching at least 70 scrimmage yards in nine consecutive games. The only knock on Stevenson is his salary. He has a justifiably-high salary but is attached to the underdog in this contest, making him less alluring than Allen and Diggs. Still, it's possible to use all three players on the same squad on DraftKings.
Jakobi Meyers is an excellent option from the Patriots and more cap-friendly than Stevenson and Jones. Unfortunately, he missed a significant chunk of last week's game after coming up gimpy on a deep reception. Yet, Meyers returned to the game and has said he's expecting to play this week.
The fourth-year pro is averaging career highs for receptions per game (5.2) and receiving yards per game (63.4) this year, and his three touchdowns have set a new career high. Even with his brief departure last week, Meyers has run the most routes (79) for the Patriots in their last three games. He's also their primary slot, playing 53 of his last 80 passing snaps aligned in the slot. As a result, Meyers has a good matchup. Per PFF, Buffalo's slot cornerback, Taron Johnson, has allowed the second-most receiving yards (429), ninth-highest Quarterback Rating (108.8) and most touchdown receptions (four) out of 25 cornerbacks and safeties who've played at least 150 coverage snaps in the slot.
DeVante Parker has the steadiest role behind Meyers in New England's wide receiving corps. The veteran wideout hurt his knee in Week 8 against the Jets, missed a game and was eased back into action in Week 11. He had seven receptions for 132 yards in the two games before he was hurt and rebounded by four receptions for 80 yards on a full complement of snaps last week.
Kendrick Bourne is a fine punt on DK. He had only seven receptions for 55 scoreless yards on nine targets in New England's last three games. However, Bourne was fourth on the team in routes (71). Bourne has also had a few carries this year, demonstrating the team's willingness to find ways to get the ball into his hands. So, he's a salary-saving option on a top-heavy showdown slate.
Final Thoughts: Allen is the most desirable captain/MVP. However, Diggs and Stevenson also have compelling cases as pivots in tournaments. Finally, unbalanced lineups, which feature more Bills than Patriots, are my favorite lineup construction for this slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
