The Colts will grace us with their presence in another primetime contest after losing on Monday Night Football in Week 12. They’re significant underdogs this time on the road against the Cowboys. Dallas should be able to whoop Indianapolis, reflected in the picks below.
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -10.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Colts Analysis: Matt Ryan played well indoors this year before he faceplanted last week. The veteran quarterback is cooked. So, the Colts will presumably lean on the running attack as long as they can on Sunday night.
According to numberFire, the Colts have attempted 76 passes and 60 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Jeff Saturday made his debut as the interim head coach in Week 10. The rushing attack has rightfully almost entirely gone through Jonathan Taylor. He handled 55 of the 60 rushing attempts noted above.
The Colts will grace us with their presence in another primetime contest after losing on Monday Night Football in Week 12. They’re significant underdogs this time on the road against the Cowboys. Dallas should be able to whoop Indianapolis, reflected in the picks below.
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -10.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Colts Analysis: Matt Ryan played well indoors this year before he faceplanted last week. The veteran quarterback is cooked. So, the Colts will presumably lean on the running attack as long as they can on Sunday night.
According to numberFire, the Colts have attempted 76 passes and 60 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Jeff Saturday made his debut as the interim head coach in Week 10. The rushing attack has rightfully almost entirely gone through Jonathan Taylor. He handled 55 of the 60 rushing attempts noted above.
Additionally, Taylor dominated routes out of the backfield last week. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he ran 31 routes and Deon Jackson ran only three. Taylor has hauled in five receptions for 22 scoreless yards in Saturday's three games as the coach.
Taylor isn't likely to provide value if the Colts are in catch-up mode early. However, his role in the passing attack can help him bolster his value if the Colts hang around longer than expected by successfully leaning on him. The 2021 NFL rushing leader isn't a must-use player, but Taylor's bell-cow role makes him a viable option to mix into showdown rosters.
Parris Campbell had a disappointing showing last week. However, in the past three games, he's had a 19.7% Target Share, 11 receptions 140 receiving yards, 94 Air Yards and one touchdown. Additionally, per PFF, he had a 5.9-yard aDOT in those contests, making him a potential weapon to mitigate Dallas's fierce pass rush by getting the ball in his hands quickly near the line of scrimmage.
There's a decent chance they get boat raced. Still, it's a roster requirement to use one player from the Colts. So why spend more salary on a player from Indy than the minimum? Ashton Dulin hasn't appeared in the box score in three games since he returned from Injured Reserve in Week 10. However, he ran seven, eight, and 12 routes in those games. Dulin is also a candidate for garbage-time production if the Cowboys blow the doors off the Colts.
Cowboys Analysis: Since Week 8, the Cowboys have attempted 99 passes and 83 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts. Thus, they ran a fairly balanced offense when the game was close. When leading by at least eight points during that stretch, they attempted 34 passes and 42 rushes by non-quarterbacks.
Therefore, there's plenty of meat on the bone for Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. In neutral game scripts in the past two games, Pollard held a narrow edge over Zeke in carries, 23 versus 19. However, Pollard didn't score any rushing touchdowns in a neutral game script, and Zeke had two.
When leading by at least eight points since Week 11, Zeke had 12 rushes, Pollard had seven and Malik Davis had seven. Additionally, inside the 10-yard line in that two-game sample, Elliott had three touchdowns on three rushes, Pollard failed to punch in either of his two attempts and tight end Peyton Hendershot scored on a rush.
Zeke has a path to value by scoring touchdowns from the goal line and salting the game away. Fortunately, Pollard has the home-run ability to pan out, too. The more explosive Pollard shredded the Vikings for 80 rushing yards on 15 attempts and 109 receiving yards and two touchdowns on six receptions. However, last week's 60 scoreless rushing yards and two receptions for one yard provide evidence of his floor in a shared backfield with Zeke.
The matchup is good for both running backs, though. According to Football Outsiders, the Colts are 18th in rush defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Saturday took the reigns. So, using Pollard and Zeke together on the same showdown roster is viable.
Meanwhile, Dak Prescott has been sharp lately. In his past four games, he's completed 71.2% of his passes and amassed 1,052 passing yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions. Obviously, the interceptions weren't ideal. Yet, averaging 263.0 passing yards per game, despite a blowout victory against the Vikings, was rock-solid. He's a stellar choice on the heavily-favored Cowboys.
The passing game is highly consolidated between CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz. Gallup is the easy selection to fade from the trio. The matchup is lousy for the field-stretching wideout. Opposing quarterbacks have completed just six of 16 pass attempts that traveled at least 15 Air Yards in Indy's previous three games.
Lamb and Schultz are extremely attractive picks. In Dallas's previous four games, Lamb had a 27.3% Target Share, 19 receptions, 264 receiving yards, 322 Air Yards and three touchdowns. Schultz was also productive, producing a 21.2% Target Share, 17 receptions, 168 receiving yards, 159 Air Yards and three touchdowns.
Dallas's defense is also a fun pick. Per Pro-Football-Reference, Matty Ice has the 13th-highest sack rate (7.6%) and 12th-highest interception rate (2.6%) out of 35 qualified quarterbacks this season. Conversely, the Cowboys are sixth in yards allowed per play (4.9), tied for seventh in turnovers forced (16) and first in sacks (45).
Final Thoughts: Sometimes, it pays off to be contrarian and invest in an underdog on a showdown slate. This isn't the slate to get cute. Instead, unbalanced lineups which feature one or, at most, two Colts on DraftKings are likely optimal. Finally, Prescott, Pollard and Zeke -- as crazy as using the veteran running back might seem -- are my favorite options for captain/MVP.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
