Get your popcorn ready. The Dolphins and Chargers are poised to put on an offensive clinic on Sunday Night Football. The points should be plentiful. However, sifting through the players is tricky since there’s massive star power for both clubs and very few ancillary players to offer salary-cap relief. There will be tough cuts from showdown rosters. Yet, this piece aims to narrow the player pool to a more manageable collection of options.
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Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Get your popcorn ready. The Dolphins and Chargers are poised to put on an offensive clinic on Sunday Night Football. The points should be plentiful. However, sifting through the players is tricky since there’s massive star power for both clubs and very few ancillary players to offer salary-cap relief. There will be tough cuts from showdown rosters. Yet, this piece aims to narrow the player pool to a more manageable collection of options.
Check out all of our weekly fantasy football content
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Game: Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers
Dolphins Analysis: The Dolphins have been a fun and high-flying offense this year. They endured a hiccup last week against San Francisco's elite defense. However, this is a rebound spot against the Chargers' soft defense.
According to numberFire, the Dolphins have attempted 99 passes and 55 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in their previous five games. If they stick to their pass-heavy guns, Tua Tagovailoa and his pass-catchers can light up the box score.
According to Football Outsiders, the Chargers are 16th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Tagovailoa is capable of carving up LA's mid-pack pass defense. The third-year quarterback is averaging 285.9 passing yards per game and has tossed 21 touchdowns. Further, according to Pro-Football-Reference, he's first in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (8.86 ANY/A).
When Tua takes to the air, the ball is probably going to Tyreek Hill. Miami's duo of Hill and Jaylen Waddle were a 1 and 1A to open the year. However, Hill has pulled away from Waddle. Perhaps, Waddle's injury has led to the growing disparity between the two. Nevertheless, in Miami's last five games, Hill had a 29.3% Target Share, and Waddle had a 20.7% Target Share. Hill also bested Waddle in Air Yards, 669 to 513. Hill has parlayed his dominant usage into 39 receptions, 606 receiving yards and three touchdowns, adding two rushes for 12 yards. So, Hill is the most exciting passing-game piece for the Dolphins.
Trent Sherfield is the affordable option in the Dolphins' passing game. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he's third on the club in routes (124) in their last five games. Sherfield was also third in targets (19), receptions (12), receiving yards (223) and Air Yards (227). Sherfield also scored two touchdowns in the five-game stretch.
While the passing attack is lethal, injuries on the offensive line and the matchup against LA's porous run defense might result in more production than usual from the running game. First, the Chargers are 30th in rush defense DVOA. Second, teams have attempted 129 passes and 129 rushes in neutral game scripts against the Chargers in their previous five games. Third, running backs have destroyed the Chargers for 134.9 rushing yards per game, 5.60 yards per carry and have scored 15 touchdowns.
There's enough meat on the bone for Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert to provide DFS value. Still, in the four games Wilson played for the Dolphins, he's attempted 21 rushes, and Mostert has attempted 20 in neutral game scripts. Wilson has run 73 routes versus 39 for Mostert. Yet, Mostert was on the field significantly more than Wilson last week. Mostert had a 61% snap share in Week 13, and Wilson had just a 37% snap share. The most recent usage gives Mostert the edge when picking between the two. However, both backs can be used together on DFS rosters since it's not unquestionable the Dolphins could assert their will on the ground and protect Tua from taking unnecessary shots behind their banged-up offensive line.
Chargers Analysis: The Chargers are an extremely pass-heavy club. In neutral game scripts in their past five games, they've attempted 174 passes and only 74 rushes by non-quarterbacks. Add in a full stable of weapons for Justin Herbert, something he hasn't had for an entire contest this year, and the sky's the limit for the third-year quarterback.
Herbert is averaging 278.3 passing yards per game and has tossed 20 touchdowns this season. Still, he's shined his brightest when he's had at least one of his top weapons at his disposal, passing for more than 300 yards or multiple touchdowns seven times in those contests.
In addition, the Dolphins are more beatable through the air. Miami is ninth in rush defense DVOA and 23rd in pass defense DVOA. As a result, teams have attempted 110 passes and 75 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in Miami's last five games. Herbert is an excellent pick on this showdown slate.
It will be interesting to see how the ball is distributed to LA's pass-catchers now that everyone is healthy. There isn't a sample to lean upon for information. However, in Keenan Allen's healthy games (excluding his contest in Week 7 when he re-aggravated his hamstring injury), he's earned a target on 21.4% of his routes, had 2.12 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) and had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 12.9 yards. He's the most enticing receiver for the Chargers.
Mike Williams has been targeted on 19.3% of his routes and sports 1.70 Y/RR and a 12.4-yard aDOT this season. The big-bodied wideout has exploded for more than 100 yards three times in eight games this year. He also had a game with seven receptions, 86 yards and one touchdown on his ledger.
According to Football Outsiders, No. 2 wideouts have averaged the ninth-most receiving yards per game (53.9) against the Dolphins. Additionally, PFF's wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart give Big Mike a significant matchup advantage while tabbing Allen's and Josh Palmer's matchups as poor.
Gerald Everett sometimes cedes playing time to his fellow tight ends. Yet, he's been targeted on a stellar 19.1% of his routes and had 1.42 Y/RR. Everett's 7.1-yard aDOT also makes him a safety valve. He has a good matchup, too. Tight ends have averaged the ninth-most receiving yards per game (56.6) against the Dolphins this year.
Austin Ekeler is the highest-ceiling option on the Chargers. He's a target hog. Ekeler's been targeted on a blistering 30.4% of his routes. The pass-catching stud averages 7.1 receptions and 47.0 receiving yards per game and has added 49.1 rushing yards per game and 12 touchdowns. Additionally, running backs have had success through the air against the Dolphins, averaging the ninth-most receiving yards per game (42.8) and 5.3 receptions per game against them. Running backs have also splashed paydirt 13 times against Miami. Ekeler can go off in this contest.
Final Thoughts: There are many superb choices for the captain/MVP. My favorites are Hill and Herbert at both DFS outlets, with Allen and Ekeler also warranting consideration on DraftKings' full-point point-per-reception format. Finally, balanced or unbalanced teams have a case. So, gamers entering multiple lineups into tournaments should mix it up.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
