Thor Nystrom’s 2023 NFL Draft Primer: Quarterbacks
1. Bryce Young | Alabama | 5101/204 | RAS: N/A
Player comparison: Russell Wilson
Bio
Bryce Young was a five-star recruit out of California football powerhouse Mater Dei High and the consensus QB1 in the 2020 class. Alabama won the derby for his services. Incredibly, Young exceeded sky-high expectations in Tuscaloosa. In his first year as a starter, Young won the Heisman and led Alabama to the title game. Last year, Young’s supporting cast fell off a cliff, but he improved anyway.
That’s one side of Young’s story — consistently out-performing lofty expectations under the brightest of spotlights.
The other side of his story isn’t so dissimilar from Young’s NFL Combine experience. There Bryce Young was in Indianapolis, off a dominant two-year run as the starter for the nation’s premier program… answering questions about his size. Again.
Young measured in at roughly Kyler Murray‘s dimensions. Young chose not to throw or do the athletic tests. He was in Indy to measure and talk to teams and the media. After a picture emerged of Young wearing what appeared to be lift shoes at his media session, the Crimson Tide quarterback was mocked on social media.
Media leaving the event talked about C.J. Stroud’s arm, Anthony Richardson‘s athleticism… and Young’s lack of size. Not his Heisman, not his 24-3 record as a starter in college, but his dimensions.
It all must have seemed so familiar. Except for this time, Anthony Richardson was playing the role of former Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei. Alongside Young and Stroud, Uiagalelei was the third five-star quarterback out of California in the 2020 class.
In the eighth grade, Uiagalelei had a war chest of scholarship offers from every major program in the country. Bryce Young had one. It had come from a Big 12 coach who would be fired during Young’s senior year of high school — Texas Tech’s Kliff Kingsbury. UCLA HC Chip Kelly was among many who withheld an offer until later because of Young’s height and scrawny frame.
Young flipped the script game-by-game and proved the doubters wrong in high school. By his senior year, Young had pulled ahead of Uiagalelei as the class’ consensus QB1. After signing with Nick Saban, Young sat behind Mac Jones for a year and threw for over 8,000 yards with 80 TD over his two campaigns as a starter. Young was PFF’s highest-graded thrower during that span and earned consecutive All-American honors.
Strengths
A prodigy inside the pocket. A pilot who has logged 10,000 hours in the cockpit. Nothing surprises him. Uncanny cool, and calm back there. Doesn’t get hung up when primary options are taken off the table or when the post-snap look changes unexpectedly.
To quote Bruce Lee, Young is a “like water” decision-maker. He doesn’t need looks or decisions manufactured for him in advance. When Bryce Young has the ball, it is assumed that he will make the correct decision in the moment. Defenses cannot force his hand.
Young extends commercial-length plays into episode-length high-wire acts. He’s not concerned about pressure. Young thinks quickly, moves quickly, and has a quick release. He has a conviction that he will figure it out with heat in his face, and he’s usually right. He’s clever and sudden in cramped quarters with pass-rushers, and he has that Kyler Murray gene for weaving through garbage until he finds a look worthy of releasing the ball.
So very dangerous in chaos. All he needs to see is a glimmer of a receiver breaking open to fling the ball out, and he can do it surrounded by bodies. Young needs little space or time to get the ball out. He’s a conundrum for defenders at all levels. Young’s style of play itself can force confusion and communication breakdowns for the opposing defense.
Full-field reader who learned under former NFL HCs Saban and Bill O’Brien. There are quarterbacks who miss a free-running receiver off a coverage breakdown because they’re working the other side of the field. Not Bryce Young. All options are on the table until the ball leaves his hand.
For all the negative talk about Young’s body, let’s talk about the good. Young is made of rubber bands. He’s as twitchy in the upper half as he is in the lower. This is why Young can generate that level of zip on his throws for his size, even with the compact delivery — his elbow and shoulder are elastic.
He uncrowds the catch point for his receivers with quick-trigger pellets in this way — he sees it quicker, unloads it quicker, and has enough arm to make all the throws. He doesn’t have a bazooka. But man, does that right arm have nuance.
Serves YAC opportunities on a platter with his touch and placement. Poolshark of an anticipatory thrower. Will attempt unorthodox, trick-shot intermediate throws that others don’t have the imagination to see nor the audacity to try.
Young doesn’t generate the velocity on his throws that some other quarterbacks in this class do. But he can make up for some of that with the dizzying speed he turns around the ball from the center’s snap to the receiver’s hand when his first read is there or the quick-trigger decision-making and release on extended plays.
Zone defenders playing downhill don’t often get invited to the catch point despite Young’s lack of elite velocity — it’s difficult to process quicker than Bryce Young. Young lacks a bazooka but has more than enough arm for the throws he’ll be required to make in the NFL.
Young improved in 2022 even as Alabama’s receiving corps and the offensive line took steps backward. His work under pressure stood out — he’s the best in the class under duress — as did his ability to battle back from dropped balls or concepts that blew up because his receivers weren’t separating.
Wherever he winds up, Bryce Young will be seen as a savior. He’s overcome adversity and outplayed larger opponents all his life. So I trust him to immediately step in as the leader of an organization.
Weaknesses
Alabama listed Young at 6-foot, 194 pounds. Young stated after the season that he’d use the pre-draft process to try to pack on pounds. At the NFL Combine, he’d succeeded in getting up to Kyler Murray’s measurements. Almost assuredly, Young didn’t test because he was carrying an additional 10 pounds or so of unnatural weight.
Young is as tall as Murray but not quite as thick. Young will likely start NFL games initially under 200 pounds. By definition, this introduces a red flag into the eval. But Young’s game translates to the NFL smoother than Kyler Murray’s — he’s better in the pocket, and I like his arm more.
The concern for a quarterback this small – who thrives on extended plays, outside the pocket, and as a runner — is if Young can stay healthy in the NFL. But I am not as concerned by this as others are. Young only missed one game to injury the past two seasons at the highest level of college football — that injury, an AC joint sprain in his shoulder, almost always costs college quarterbacks two or three games.
Most quarterback injuries occur in the pocket. Young’s sense for the pass-rush and gift for maneuvering around it doesn’t leave him on a silver platter to be teed off on often. And if the AC joint sprain was any indication, this guy’s rubber-band body heals like Wolverine…
Young’s other weaknesses can be modified for or worked around. A good example is Young’s preference for surveying the field from deep drops. This gives him a better vantage point and widens his field-vision lens while opening more space to manipulate if Young wants to extend the play. All of this, again, is very much like Kyler Murray. (Murray was actually my comp for Young initially in college. But I shifted to Russell Wilson for the draft process because Young isn’t interested in running like Murray was).
You want Young in shotgun with your receivers spreading the field – giving him more options while thinning out the box. And while Young is very difficult to sack and doesn’t get cute as a scrambler, his game naturally asks different things of his linemen. He’ll bail out a percentage of your offensive line’s losses off the snap, but that line better be ready to stay busy until the whistle blows while keeping its hands inside the shoulder pads.
2. C.J. Stroud | Ohio State | 6030/214 | RAS: N/A
Player comparison: Justin Herbert
Bio
When Stroud was 13 years old, his father was sentenced to 38 years in prison for a drug-related incident that included carjacking, kidnapping and robbery. That crippled the family financially, forcing a move into a tiny apartment above a California storage facility during Stroud’s high school years.
The Strouds could not afford new cleats, so C.J. would return home with blistered feet in the old pair he would reuse. His high school would send home packaged meals. He played one high school game with only one contact lens.
C.J. Stroud knew he was gifted. He could throw the ball 50 yards as a 9-year-old. But with the Strouds unable to afford a private QB coach, C.J. instead studied YouTube tutorials to improve his mechanics. He literally built himself in a makeshift lab in that storage facility at the base of the San Gabriel Mountains.
Bryce Young flashed ability from a young age but was doubted throughout because of his size. Stroud, the third five-star California quarterback in that recruiting class with Young and DJ Uiagalelei, was more a case of delayed development.
Entering his junior year of high school, Stroud had only one scholarship offer and had attempted only 50 passes. He did not play at a powerhouse. He was self-taught. He did not have a connected tutor to spread the word about him. This was the last moment in C.J. Stroud’s life when he was a secret.
To that point, everything had been an uphill struggle. But the day he entered the starting lineup, a star was born. After a life of grinding, suddenly, on that field, inside those hashes, everything came easy to him. He lit it up as a junior and started rising up recruiting boards. The offers poured in.
Summer before his senior season, Stroud received a call from Ohio State’s Ryan Day. Day offered a scholarship. Stroud fell to his knees and wept. The Buckeyes lost Justin Fields to the NFL after the 2020 season. Stroud won the open derby to replace him.
The NIL offers came fast and furious. Stroud was given a $200,000 Bentley. But he wasn’t so far removed from having nothing. He bought his mom and sister a house. He handed out $500 Express gift cards to each of his teammates.
Stroud was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and a Heisman Trophy finalist both years as the starter. For years, C.J. had avoided prison communication with his father. After the 2022 Heisman ceremony — Stroud finished third — C.J. took an incoming call from his dad. They had a long talk. Stroud forgave him.
A projected top-five pick, Stroud was seemingly a slam dunk to declare early. But he waited all the way up until the NFL’s declaration deadline of January 16 to announce his intentions. Stroud called leaving Columbus “one of the hardest [decisions] I’ve ever had to make.”
Strengths
Stroud is the new-age prototype of a pocket-passer. He’s well-built. He’s got a smooth, juicy arm. He’s aggressive, attacking all levels of the field. You need to mind all three sectors because he can fit it anywhere he wants and has no compunction about doing so.
The nuance of Stroud’s throwing arsenal jumped out most over the past two years. His combination of touch and placement is best in class. Stroud’s arm and accuracy speak for themselves — his completion percentage in college was 97th percentile among all quarterbacks going back to 2005.
But the touch and placement on Stroud’s downfield and window throws in conjunction make him very, very dangerous — he serves up balls that are as catchable as humanely possible. Bucket throws, layer throws, rifle-it-into-tight-window throws, timing throws up the sideline — you name it. He is the pitcher who can throw any pitch in any sequence at any time and fit it through a keyhole. Funny enough, ESPN’s Jordan Reid compared Stroud’s setup and delivery to an ace pitcher during Stroud’s throwing session at the NFL Combine. Spot-on.
As you can imagine, Stroud’s game — the accuracy, touch and timing — maximizes yards after catch (YAC) opportunities. His receivers rarely have to adjust with the ball in the air. It tends to hit them on the hands in stride, leading them upfield or away from oncoming defenders.
This week, coming out of the NFL Combine, Stroud’s arm is getting a lot of ink — justifiably so. What doesn’t get discussed enough, I think, is Stroud’s innate understanding of how to attack defenses in the moment. Stroud is a day trader who takes advantage of the market factors presented at any given moment. Humor a brief aside.
Remember the book on Pat Mahomes coming out of Texas Tech? That he was a YOLO quarterback? In the Super Bowl, Mahomes’ longest completion was 22 yards. The Eagles dropped back to take away deep shots and forced Mahomes to be methodical and efficient with underneath space. Mahomes completed 77.8% of his passes for three TD. That’s why the Chiefs won the Super Bowl despite Mahomes throwing for only 182 yards with no explosive passes. The Eagles forced Mahomes to beat them in a very specific way. And he obliged them. This is a hallmark of the greats more than any singular physical trait.
Back to Stroud. One of the All-22 tapes of Stroud’s that I watched was the 2021 Ohio State-Purdue game. The Boilermakers decided to begin that game dropping back in coverage, ala the Eagles’ Super Bowl strategy. Purdue’s plan was well reasoned. It made sense to protect yourself on the back end against OSU’s receiving corps of Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Stroud did not get frustrated by this. The opposite. Stroud began the game by eating the Boilermakers’ lunch in the quick game. Every throw early on was a short/manufactured/first-read concept where the ball came out lickity-split. OSU’s demigod receivers piled up YAC. So, of course, the Boilermakers were forced to move up coverage to stop the hemorrhaging of free yards.
You know what happened next. Bombs away. Ohio State’s next two passing plays were a wide-open touchdown and a wide-open dropped touchdown. The latter was one of Stroud’s seven incompletions on the day. He finished 31-of-38 for 361 yards, five TDs, and zero interceptions. Purdue’s defense finished top-25 SP+ that year. You pick the way you prefer CJ Stroud to beat you. And he’ll oblige.
Another subtle aspect I love about Stroud’s game is how he always stays squared to throw behind the line of scrimmage, no matter what. He’s like a gun that’s always cocked. Even when he’s rolling left, he’s got his finger pressed lightly against the trigger with his eye trained in the scope.
For most of Stroud’s career, he had little interest in leaving the pocket to run. But as we found out when Ohio State played Georgia in the College Football Playoff in December, he can if required. Not only that… he might be good at it. Who else won off-script against that Georgia defense the past two years like Stroud did?
It wasn’t just that performance, I should mention. In my film notes, I jotted this: Moves around better than billing. Better athlete than people think. Maniacal adherence to winning in pocket kept this part of his game dormant.
Watching Stroud live the past two years, I wasn’t as impressed by his movement. It opened my eyes — along with everyone else’s — during the Georgia game in last year’s CFP. But on film, it was clear Stroud moved around in the pocket better than I had given him credit for. He just didn’t run around and show off his legs.
Some wondered why we hadn’t seen that skill prior to his last game in college. I loved Stroud’s answer to that question at the NFL Combine: “You spend eight hours on one play, you are not going to go, ‘1, 2, run.’ You are going to go, ‘1, 2, 3, 4 and try to figure out who is open.’ You want to feed your guys the rock.”
Below, we’ll touch on the biggest question mark of Stroud’s eval — that he played with a ludicrous amount of supporting talent in a high-octane system tailored to his strengths. But it’s important to differentiate Stroud from the Ohio State helmet. He is not Justin Fields, nor Dwayne Haskins, nor is he a product of a system or his supporting cast.
Haskins was a one-year wonder who didn’t move around as well as Stroud and lacked Stroud’s accuracy and nuance as a thrower. Stroud and Fields share very few similarities. Whereas Fields was dinged for being a slow processor and his preference of seeing receivers open before throwing, Stroud is an emphatic decision-maker, averaging nearly a half-second less per throw on average over his OSU career than Fields. He’s also a more courageous thrower, albeit lacking Fields’ athletic package.
Stroud doesn’t simply accept what he’s given. He will throw receivers open. Stroud was, of course, aided by the skill of the receivers he was throwing to. But that doesn’t negate the number of balls that left his hands before a receiver’s break that found the receiver’s hands immediately thereafter. In the NFL, you don’t get open looks every snap – this is another skill that will immediately translate.
Weaknesses
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Stroud played with a stupid amount of talent at Ohio State. His offensive lines were elite. His receiving corps was even better. Stroud threw to WRs Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison and Emeka Egbuka the past two years. The WR room was so stacked that 2022 first-rounder Jameson Williams had to transfer to Alabama prior to the 2021 season to get on the field.
So yes, Stroud is a courageous, anticipatory thrower who trusts his receivers — but it would have been crazy not to trust the specific receivers he was working with. Nearly every ball Stroud threw in college, his man had a physical advantage over the defender covering him.
Stroud also needs to get more consistent under pressure. This is an area of the game he shined in during the 2021 season. But during the 2022 regular season, the difference between Stroud’s work in clean pockets (93.4 PFF grade) and under pressure (42.0) was staggering. Too often, we’d see Stroud recognize pressure late and move on to the next play instead of finding an alternate answer while under duress.
This is what made Stroud’s performance against Georgia in Round 1 so important. In that game, Stroud was fabulous under pressure against the nation’s best defense. He also showed an ability to throw accurately on the move and steal yards as a runner when Georgia dropped heavy numbers into coverage.
On instances where he did attempt to extend plays earlier in his career, Stroud did not look natural. His processor slowed, his field of vision seemed to narrow, and he didn’t mind his mechanics as he did in clean pockets — where he’s obsessive about them. In those rare off-script situations, you’d see him arm-muscle balls without a sound base beneath him or his shoulders squared.
The other thing you have to mention is that Stroud is at his worst when he’s locking onto his first option. And perhaps this is a natural manifestation of playing with so many outlier talents. But Stroud could glitch when the look he expected to get wasn’t there. One thing to work on is a more smooth continuum from Point A to Point B to Point C when those looks aren’t there.
This was an issue at times during the 2022 regular season. In his defense, OSU’s running back room was a MASH unit all year, Smith-Njigba was essentially unexpectedly lost for the season, and Stroud was working with a new receiving corps. Year-over-year continuity was minimal at the skill positions, and week-to-week continuity was not guaranteed either.
Returning to the Georgia game — can you tell how important that singular game was to his eval?! — the Bulldogs’ defensive gameplan centered around taking Stroud’s first- and second-reads away while banking on Stroud staying in the pocket and getting frustrated.
The Bulldogs wanted to make it very difficult for Stroud, the Facilitator, to facilitate. This was a brilliant strategy based on the book on Stroud heading in. But for that one game, Stroud turned into Stroud the Creator, manufacturing answers that weren’t there.
Was that performance a one-off, or a sign there’s a ton of dormant play-making potential still waiting to be unlocked? If the answer is the latter, my ranking here is wrong, and Stroud is the best quarterback in this class. If I had seen it more, he’d be ranked that way on my board.
Stroud has closed ground on Bryce Young since that Georgia game. For me, the gap between those two feels like it gets narrower by the day.
Player comparison: Daunte Culpepper
Bio
Richardson, as you know, is coming off one of the freakiest NFL Combine performances we’ve ever seen, regardless of position. Kent Lee Platte’s RAS system scored Richardson’s size-adjusted composite a perfect “10” — RAS only awards one “10” score per position — confirming that Richardson’s physical package is unprecedented at the quarterback position.
That athleticism projects to get Richardson out of dangerous situations in the NFL, as it did in college. Richardson knows a thing or two about that. As a kid, Richardson trained to be a firefighter. If he had not become a professional athlete, Richardson says he would likely be a Gainesville firefighter today.
Richardson grew up in the shadow of Florida’s campus. He was a dual-sport star who also excelled in basketball – highlights of him dunking can be seen across the internet. Richardson’s football journey began as a matchup-nightmare receiver. But he was too gifted not to have the ball in his hands every single play, so Richardson shifted to quarterback in high school.
At the NFL Combine, Richardson revealed that he has been calling himself “Cam Jackson” since the 11th grade, an homage to Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson. Interestingly, the year before that, as a high school sophomore in 2017, Richardson received his very first scholarship offer. It came from Louisville. Lamar Jackson was wrapping up his last year on campus.
It was going to be hard to pry Richardson out of Gainesville – but you can’t blame then-UL HC Bobby Petrino for trying. Richardson indeed committed to the Gators prior to his junior year. After that football season, he briefly re-opened his recruitment in an effort to get more exposure for his teammates.
A consensus four-star recruit and the ninth-ranked dual-threat quarterback in the 2019 class, Richardson was an Elite 11 finalist. He redshirted during the 2020 COVID-19 season on that Gators team that had Kyle Trask, Dameon Pierce, Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts.
The next year, Richardson platooned with QB Emory Jones under former HC Dan Mullen. That was the year Mullen gave Pierce only 100 carries, a popular talking point during the last draft process. What was even crazier: Giving Jones nearly 300 more attempts than Richardson that season and giving Jones nearly as many carries as Pierce and Richardson combined.
Mullen was mercifully fired, ushering in the HC Billy Napier era. Jones transferred to Arizona State (and is now at Cincinnati). It was Richardson’s show in 2022 — his only year starting in college, as it turns out. The flash plays were the most impressive of any quarterback in the class. The lowlights were… bad.
Richardson opted out of the Las Vegas Bowl against Oregon State in December and declared early for the draft. He’s gifted, raw, and inexperienced, as we’ll explore below.
Strengths
That we know of, God has only made one human being with this combination of size, athleticism, and arm strength. The NFL has never seen anything quite like Anthony Richardson.
Quick story. Richardson’s 40-yard-dash prop line at the sportsbook was set at 4.45. I knew he was a freak. But I also knew he was going to weigh in at over 240 — turns out 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds. I had to take the over — only 11 players in the history of the NFL Combine who weighed 244 pounds or more had cleared the 4.45 number, none of them quarterbacks.
In fact, the three quarterbacks who had bested the 4.45 number at the NFL Combine were all, at minimum, 20-plus pounds lighter than Richardson. My thought wasn’t that Richardson couldn’t do it. It’s just something that we’d never seen done before. And if he could, the book could have my money — I’d doff the cap.
Richardson took my money. It was truly incredible. The entire spectacle was. Richardson broke the combine record for quarterbacks on both the vertical and broad jumps. Vernon Davis is considered one of the freakiest tight end athletes to ever enter the NFL. At one inch taller and 10 pounds lighter, Richardson nearly matched Davis’ 40, both of his splits, and both of his jumps. These are not athletic traits that can be poo-poohed.
On the plays they coalesce on the field, you cannot defend Anthony Richardson. It’s unfair. I’m thinking about the two-point conversion play late in the 29-26 upset win over then-No. 8 Utah in the 2022 opener. Two rushers had free runs at Richardson, but after a mid-air pump fake and a spinning Houdini escape, the play ended in a wide-open receiver hit on the hands in the back of the end zone. What about the 80-yard touchdown run against LSU, where Richardson hit 21-mph top speed? How about the three other 60-plus-yard TD runs the past two years? You get the idea.
Oftentimes, two defenders are needed to take him down. An attribute I prioritize in quarterbacks is not panicking under pressure — you’d be surprised how many busts you could have identified in advance from this one metric alone in college. This is one element of Richardson’s game that isn’t raw. Richardson will allow rushers to get within mere strides of him before moving off his spot – because he knows he can shake them in an instant and then outrun them.
This buys Richardson oodles of extra time to survey options and consider possibilities. It’s a skill you don’t often see. Even free rushers have to approach Anthony Richardson like a lion, with the utmost care and the thought that he could suddenly and violently spring in any direction.
It’s hard to get your hands on Richardson, harder to get a square shot on him. If Richardson’s accuracy improves, his supreme ability to extend plays is going to become deadly — I’ll point you back to that two-point conversion against Utah. That would have been unfair on an NFL field.
And friends: If you don’t hit Richardson flush, with form and follow-through and your hands wrapped on the other side, he’ll flick you away like a mosquito. He’s a rhino to wrestle down in the ilk of Josh Allen, Cam Newton or Daunte Culpepper — three of his ubiquitous comps.
That trio fits because they were also all outfitted with bazooka right arms, as Richardson is. Richardson generates absurd velocity on his drive throws. And Richardson’s ability to let-it-fly vertically presents defenses with the same conundrum that Allen currently poses, forcing them to cover every inch of the field. Fully realized, Richardson will be the same kind of spacing nightmare.
We’re exploring the reasons why Richardson didn’t get developed as quickly in college as he maybe should have. But I wanted to close by mentioning Richardson’s rapid improvement in the second half of his lone year as a college starter. After posting a 5/7 TD/INT rate over his first six starts — he struggled for a bit following the Utah game — Richardson logged a 12/2 TD/INT rate in his last six against the heart of the schedule.
Weaknesses
Richardson is the rawest first-round quarterback we’ve seen in the past decade — even rawer than Trey Lance. Richardson made only 13 starts in college and threw fewer than 400 career passes. He did all of this in an unstable environment that didn’t help his development.
Richardson suffered a season-ending injury during his senior year of high school. His first year at Florida was the historically-wonky COVID-19 season, a truncated campaign that began with fewer offseason practices.
Over Richardson’s three years on campus, he played for two head coaches, one interim HC, three offensive coordinators, and three QB coaches. He spent the offseason prior to his lone year as a starter learning an entirely new offensive system under a new staff.
I’ve strategically mentioned the lack of polish and experience as weaknesses first because — and we’re about to get to the heart of the Anthony Richardson conundrum – they can also be read as caveats to the rest of them. And that, of course, has more to do with the person analyzing Anthony Richardson than Anthony Richardson himself.
So you be the judge.
The biggest tangible weakness of Richardson’s game currently is his inaccuracy. So let’s be blunt: His current accuracy issues will nullify any chance of turning into even a league-average starting quarterback. Last year, Richardson ranked 13th among 14 SEC quarterbacks with a 53.8% completion percentage.
But let’s also be fair: Because of Richardson’s physical ability, he never needs to have Drew Brees’ pinpoint accuracy — it just needs to be good enough. And there’s a fix for that. Richardson’s accuracy is already adequate when his mechanics are in check. They crop up when he gets haphazard with his lower half. Might NFL coaching help with that? It did for Josh Allen.
Richardson also needs to work on throwing nuance (which, again, read another way, is: Richardson has plenty of arm talent to unlock). Richardson was the amateur pitcher who threw 95 mph and didn’t need to develop his secondary pitches. He’s going to need those secondary pitches in the NFL.
Richardson’s arm wows when he drives a 25-yard rope into a tight window. It’s frustrating when he throws a screen pass with the same velocity or when he eschews trajectory on a layer pass to fire another bullet.
Richardson does go through his progressions. And he’ll defer to the check-down when he has to. But one factor in his decision-making that mitigated more opportunities for big plays was his penchant for bailing on a play early by throwing the ball away under pressure when he didn’t have a look he liked. An NFL coach is going to tell Anthony Richardson that he is too gifted to do that unless necessary.
But, especially early in the season, there would be throws where you knew Richardson felt immediate remorse as the ball was leaving his hand, having been fooled by a coverage look. More ubiquitous were instances where Richardson’s belief in his arm outweighed his belief in his eyes, instances where he’d force balls into coverage prematurely.
Here’s the crux of the Richardson conundrum: Are these weaknesses, at least to some degree, a function of his inexperience and the lack of coaching and system continuity at Florida? Or is some franchise about to set itself back several years by taking a quarterback who will always be mired by crippling accuracy issues?
4. Will Levis | Kentucky | 6040/229 | RAS: N/A
Player comparison: Carson Wentz
Strengths
Live-wire player in every sense. Big, strapping, athletic quarterback with an enormous right arm. That arm has flashes of crazy talent. Has throws on tape where his feet aren’t set that’ll drop your jaw. Levis’ deep balls are gorgeous. The ball comes out of his hands with smoke rings when he’s trying to drive it through a window. Strong accuracy when his mechanics are sound.
Levis has the ability to tuck a ball perfectly between two defensive backs more than 20 yards downfield. Those throws where the placement matches the arm it took to get it there are why the NFL is excited about him. No wasted motion on the release — gets it out quickly. Extremely tough kid. Played through multiple nagging injuries last year. Admirable guts in the pocket. Stands tall as long as possible and is willing to take the shot to uncork a ball. Above-average athleticism for his size. Rushing element of his game waned last year, likely due to injuries, but Levis should be expected to leave the pocket more in the NFL. Experienced at full-field reads after playing in a pro-style system under former Rams OC Liam Coen.
Weaknesses
Doesn’t sense pressure. Saw him get crash-test-dummied numerous times in the pocket. Levis doesn’t manipulate the pocket well enough to wear blinders in it — danger can reach the front door quickly and unexpectedly, and Levis doesn’t tend to acquit himself well once it does. Maddening bouts of inaccuracy on account of mechanical haphazardness. When Levis’ base is set, and he marries his upper half to it, the ball tends to go exactly where he wants it to.
Levis has less work to do on his mechanics than Richardson — physically speaking. But there are two complicating factors: Levis tends to totally forget his mechanics under duress, and Levis is far less comfortable and accurate throwing left than right due to the truncated follow-through on his compact motion in that direction. He is also far more nonchalant in clean pockets with his technique than you’d like — he’s like a center fielder who will attempt to randomly bucket-catch three fly balls per game. This explains random bouts of inaccuracy, even on layup throws.
He’s athletic, but it’s north-south athleticism. Not the runner his tall-tale Josh Allen comps would have you think. He’s an upright, straightforward target in the open field, leading to big collisions. In the NFL, he’s going to have to learn to surrender, or he’s going to get hurt — especially because I worry he’s going to be taking damage in the pocket, at least initially. Noticed on film a penchant for throwing hospital balls that I didn’t note with the other quarterbacks in my top four, leading receivers directly into descending defensive backs.
Lacks throwing nuance — a hammer that sees only nails. Flashes of touch don’t come through nearly often enough, though we know he’s capable of them. Took a huge step backward last season after losing a lot of his supporting cast. Not only did he stop running, but roughly one-quarter of his passes were behind the line of scrimmage.
5. Hendon Hooker | Tennessee | 6035/208 | RAS: N/A
Player comparison: Jordan Love
Strengths
Fun combo of dual-threat utility and deep-ball acumen. Love the way he attacks downfield. When he’s got the look he wants, Hooker confidently lets it fly and typically drops a catchable ball on the hands. Legitimate running threat when he takes off. Makes good use of mobility in pocket. Hard target to hit flush – makes defenders miss in close quarters. As a scrambler, does a good job maintaining throwing threat until the moment he crosses the line of scrimmage, delaying the downhill trigger of coverage defenders. Astute at sensing pressure and working away from it while continuing to hunt downfield. Works with good timing — a trait needed in the Vols’ system.
Hooker rarely missed his window of opportunity to fire the ball in. Studious learner who improved every year in college. Mechanics have come a long way. He is very cognizant of his base when throwing — diligence that led to improved accuracy throughout his career. Appreciate how he keeps the ball out of harm’s way while providing a big-play threat. Hooker’s 58/5 TD/INT rate over the past two years is a testament to that.
Weaknesses
Hooker’s torn ACL from November needs the okay from your medical staff — and could delay the start of his rookie year. Which is unfortunate because he’s old for a prospect. Hooker, a sixth-year senior, will be 26 at the end of his rookie season. Late breakout in college. Didn’t scare anyone with his arm at Virginia Tech. Light came on after transfer to Knoxville. But that was under ideal circumstances. So much of Hooker’s production comes from the scheme. Josh Heupel is one of the sport’s best play-callers.
The Vols’ scheme cleaved the field in half for Hooker. Boy was Hooker confident reading his half of the field — but you just so very rarely see his head move from one side of the field to the other. The plays you’d see him go to the other side felt schemed – stacking receivers on one side of the alignment to create eye-candy confusion, feigning interest in that direction post-snap for a beat before hard-resetting to the other side of the field for the actual first-read.
How he’ll do with full-field reads in a pro-style offense at the next level is an open question. While Hooker senses pressure well and prevents defenders from crashing down on him early when he intends to leave the pocket, he’s strangely very little threat to actually throw while moving. Per PFF, Hooker completed only seven passes over 151 dropbacks the past two years when moved off his spot. NFL scouting reports will zero in on that tendency.
6. Jake Haener | Fresno State | 6000/208 | RAS: N/A
Player comparison: Brock Purdy
A decorated college quarterback who was the clear best quarterback at the Senior Bowl, winning game MVP and National Team QB Practice Player-of-Week. Makes the correct decision for almost every single rep — steady, consistent, no surprises. Haener gets the ball out on time and, on the hands, a zippy rhythm thrower. Commands any huddle he steps into. Arm had a little more zip than I was expecting out to the intermediate area.
But Haener lacks the RPMs to consistently test windows, and his deep passes are max-effort rainbows. Haener’s weaknesses — ala Purdy — are things he can’t do anything about. He’s small, and he’s an average athlete, in addition to the mediocre arm strength. But for teams who trust their offensive system and want a “coach-on-the-field” caretaker in the QB2 role, Haener would make a lot of sense on Day 3. It would be a surprise if he doesn’t hang around the NFL for a long time.
7. Tanner McKee | Stanford | 6060/231 | RAS: 8.69
Player comparison: Mike Glennon
Big pocket passer. Plus, accuracy that stretches out to the deep sector. Knows what he’s doing in the pocket. Mechanically sound. Throws a pretty ball, a tight, catchable spiral. Velocity to drive the ball into windows — and the courage to test them when he thinks he has the best of it. Oh my gosh, was his supporting cast mediocre, and his offensive scheme directionless. Numerous times on tape, you’d see a strong read and throw by McKee end in the ball clanking off of one of his receiver’s hands.
I previously perceived him as slow-footed based on his 2021 work. After a recent review of McKee’s 2022 film, I’m willing to upgrade that aspect of his game to adequate. In a Frankenstein’s monster offensive scheme that attempted to meld Wake Forest’s slow-mesh concepts in with David Shaw’s wayward Stanford schema, McKee showed the ability to bootleg smoothly and throw accurately while drifting. Has a knack for selling play-action and crisply getting into his progressions. Davis Mills‘ relative success as a third-round pick offers recent proof-of-concept of a statistically-mediocre quarterback out of Stanford out-performing expectations in the NFL.
Mediocre college production that came amid poor circumstances. Tested better than expected but isn’t going to scare anyone as a runner upfield — McKee is more or less a classic pocket passer who adds some bootleg utility. Needs to improve under pressure — both sensing it and making decisions under it. Numerous haphazard decisions when the heat got turned up. Needs to develop alternate plans for these circumstances. Because he doesn’t have the short-area movement to shirk pass-rushers that have entered his kitchen. Strong completion percentage of 66.5% in clean pockets cratered to 41% under pressure.
8. Aidan O’Connell | Purdue | 6030/212
Player comparison: Mike White
Classic pocket-passer coming from a pro-style system under Jeff Brohm at Purdue. A fighter who began as a walk-on and turned himself into a standout. Throws one of the most catchable balls in the class. Brohm, a former quarterback, clearly polished this diamond-in-the-rough — O’Connell is mechanically sound, and he makes good decisions. He is very effective in the short and intermediate sectors and over the middle of the field — gets the ball out in rhythm and on the money.
You run into problems if you try to stretch him beyond that. O’Connell doesn’t have the arm to scare the defense deep, and his middling velocity can make far-hash attempts precarious. Lack of velocity can also crowd catch points for his receivers. He’s also not much of an athlete – what you see is what you get. Not much-untapped ceiling to project. But a high amount of cost certainty for a Day 3 quarterback. High probability that he’s at least a solid long-term backup. And I think he’s got a chance to one day develop into a passable game-manager starter.
Best of the rest…
9. Dorian Thompson-Robinson | UCLA | 6014/191 | Comp: Tyler Huntley
10. Clayton Tune | Houston | 6022/216 | RAS: 9.72 | Comp: Josh McCown
11. Stetson Bennett | Georgia | 5’11″/190 | Comp: Ian Book
12. Tyson Bagent | Shepherd | 6026/213 | RAS: 9.15 | Comp: Garrett Grayson
13. Jaren Hall | BYU | 6001/211 | Comp: Shea Patterson
14. Max Duggan | TCU | 6010/204 | Comp: Bruce Gradkowski
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