It’s a standard Friday MLB DFS slate, bursting at the seams with 11 games. The action starts at DraftKings and FanDuel at 7:05 pm ET. The slate has high-end pitching, reasonable middle-tier pitching and a game at Coors Field.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top pitcher's credentials are undeniable. However, he's only one start removed from a surprisingly early exit, making him a more appealing pick in tournaments than cash games. The second-ranked pitcher is an innings horse, and the discount to spin down from the top option is useful on this slate, too. The last two pitchers are the ideal SP2s at DK in cash games and tournaments, respectively. They're also decent picks in GPPs at FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. PHI
Valdez is a workhorse. He's pitched at least 5.0 innings in all five of his starts and tossed at least 6.0 in his past four starts. Valdez's reliability makes him a quality-start machine. According to ESPN, he was first in quality starts (26) last year and is tied for third this season (four).
Per FanGraphs, Valdez has a 2.25 ERA, 2.89 xFIP, 65.5 GB%, 6.1 BB%, 26.0 K% and 30.1 CSW%. While he can't match deGrom's ceiling, Valdez has an ideal high floor and ceiling blend. Additionally, per Betting Pros, the Astros are -150, and the game's total is 7.5 runs.
Max Fried (ATL) at NYM
Fried was building his pitch count in his first start. Yet, that's the only blemish on Fried's 2023 campaign. The lefty has a 0.60 ERA, 1.80 xERA, 0.93 WHIP, 62.5 GB%, 5.5 BB% and 20.0 K% in three starts, totaling 15.0 innings.
Fried enters tonight on the heels of his best start of the season. He held the Astros scoreless in 6.2 innings on three hits, three walks and five strikeouts. The Mets won't be a cakewalk. Still, the Braves are -140, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. So, he's the most attractive SP2 in cash games on DK.
GPP Recommendations:
Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs. NYY
The only knock on deGrom is his frequently spotty health. He was pulled after 4.0 innings of hitless baseball on April 17 with a wrist issue. Fortunately, he was brilliant in his next start, holding the Athletics to two runs (one earned) on three hits, zero walks and 11 strikeouts in 6.0 innings.
deGrom has struck out at least nine batters in three of his previous four starts and held opponents to two runs or less in all four turns. He'll face a less-imposing version of the Bronx Bombers tonight since Aaron Judge is sidelined. Therefore, the sky's the limit. And the betting info agrees. The Rangers are -200, and the game's total is 7.5 runs. Gamers aren't crazy if they spend the requisite salary for deGrom in cash games. Still, I prefer firing my bullets on him in GPPs.
Dustin May (LAD) vs. STL
May is perplexing. The 25-year-old righty has a 3.07 ERA, 3.81 xERA and 0.92 WHIP in five starts spanning 29.1 innings this year. Those are good marks. Sadly, May's 4.88 xFIP, 5.04 SIERA, 8.8 BB%, 16.7 K% and 23.4 CSW% range from mediocre to lousy.
Remarkably, the weirdness doesn't end there. May's 122 Stuff+ (sixth), 104 Location+ (tied for 21st) and 107 Pitching+ (tied for sixth) are elite marks among qualified pitchers this season. The righty's arsenal is filthy, even evident to untrained eyes.
Even with some undesirable numbers on May's profile, he's pitched at least 5.1 innings in all five of his starts this year and allowed two runs or fewer in four turns. And the Dodgers are -140, albeit with a somewhat concerning game total of 9.0 runs. Thus, there's a risk to using May. Still, May's pitched well enough to warrant firing tournament darts.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Rockies have a juicy .341 wOBA at home this season. They rake in MLB's premier hitting venue. Conversely, Merrill Kelly has been destroyed at Coors Field. Per Baseball-Reference, he's had a 6.20 ERA in four starts in Colorado. The righty is due for significant regression, too. Kelly's 3.42 ERA is inconsistent with his 5.71 xERA and 4.86 xFIP in five starts this season. As a cherry on top, Arizona's relievers are tied for the eighth-highest ERA (4.50) in 2023. As a result, the Rockies are the top stack tonight and should erupt.
- Road (American Family Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/LAA +120
The Angels have the requisite firepower to warrant tournament consideration on a slate that includes a game at Coors Field. Five of their projected starters have had at least a 128 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers since 2021. Additionally, four have had at least a .242 ISO. The Angels' top-shelf power could be on full display against a low-strikeout pitcher tonight. Wade Miley has an 18.7 K% and 8.8 SwStr%. And like Kelly, he's due for regression, owning a 1.96 ERA, markedly better than his 4.14 xERA and 4.57 xFIP. So, the Angels' upside is tantalizing tonight.
- C.J. Cron has had a .367 OBP, .275 ISO, .400 wOBA and 127 wRC+ in 418 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers at Coors Field since 2021.
- Ryan McMahon has had a .353 OBP, .260 ISO, .382 wOBA and 119 wRC+ in 468 plate appearances against righties in Colorado since 2021.
- Charlie Blackmon is the leadoff hitter for the Rockies. Obviously, that's an advantageous position at Coors Field. Additionally, he's had a .341 OBP, .203 ISO, .350 wOBA and 94 wRC+ against righties in Colorado since 2021.
- In 215 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Brandon Drury has had a .302 ISO and 143 wRC+. He's also had four consecutive multi-hit efforts, clubbing four homers with a .667 OBP, 1.067 ISO and 501 wRC+ in his last 18 plate appearances.
- Brent Rooker is one of the few bright spots for the A's. He has seven homers, a .417 OBP, .390 ISO and 205 wRC+ in 72 plate appearances this year. The slugger is appropriately priced at FD and a screaming DK value.
- Shortstop is an excellent position to punt tonight, and Zach Neto's the cheapest palatable option. The rookie shortstop crushed lefties in the minors.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Rockies will likely be chalky. Yet, it's good chalk to eat tonight. The Angels are a fun tournament stack. Drury and Neto are also good options in all game types.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
