Friday is another small MLB DFS slate. Additionally, it’s different on DraftKings and FanDuel. It features five games and starts at 7:20 pm ET on DK. Conversely, it has six games, beginning at 6:40 pm ET on FD. The following picks are culled to fit the slate size.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
There's a shortage of value pitchers. So, spending significant cap space for pitching is optimal tonight. Thus, the two highest-salaried pitchers are on the table. The third-highest-salaried pitcher on DK is also on the table, but he's lower in the salary pecking order on FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Brandon Woodruff (MIL) vs. STL
The Cardinals are mired in an offensive slump. They've scored over four runs only once this year and under three in their previous two contests. Still, their lineup has traditionally formidable hitters. So, it's not an easy matchup for Woodruff.
It doesn't matter, though. Woodruff epitomizes a frontline starting pitcher. He held the Cubs to one run on three hits, one walk and eight strikeouts in 6.0 innings in his 2023 debut. Woodruff is also a monster at home. According to FanGraphs, he had a 2.19 ERA, 2.51 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, 4.4 BB% and 33.1 K% in 164.1 innings pitched at home since 2021.
The betting info is also favorable tonight. According to Betting Pros, the Brewers are -162, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. Woodruff is riskier than the next starting pitcher, but he's a workhorse with a higher ceiling.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) at ARI
Kershaw's body hasn't allowed him to pile up innings as he did in his younger years. Regardless, he's pitched like an ace when he's healthy. In 22 starts totaling 126.1 innings last year, Kershaw had a 2.28 ERA, 2.51 xERA, 0.94 WHIP, 4.7 BB%, 27.8 K% and 31.0 CSW%.
The matchup is good for him tonight. Kershaw held the Diamondbacks to one run on four hits, zero walks and nine strikeouts in 6.0 innings last week. The track record for Arizona's projected starting hitters against lefties was lousy.
Additionally, the Dodgers are -220, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. As a result, Kershaw is less risky than Woodruff and is an attractive DFS option in all game types.
GPP Recommendation:
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) vs. TOR
Toronto's offense has firepower. It's never comfortable selecting a pitcher in DFS against them. However, the small slate and lack of viable pitchers beyond Woodruff and Kershaw necessitate taking a chance. Fortunately, Sandoval isn't a slouch.
The young lefty had a 2.91 ERA, 3.67 xFIP, 1.34 WHIP, 9.4 BB%, 23.7 K% and 29.2 CSW% in 27 starts spanning 148.2 innings in 2022. Sandoval has also pitched well at home. In 119.0 innings at home since 2021, he had a 3.55 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, 1.35 WHIP, 10.4 BB% and 25.3 K%. His numbers aren't flawless, but they're palatable for tournament consideration. Finally, the Angels are -118, and the game's total of 9.0 runs isn't much higher than the Brewers' or Dodgers' over/under. So, gamers entering multiple tournaments should consider mixing Sandoval into their lineups with Woodruff and Kershaw.
Top Lineup Stacks
It was an uncharacteristically low-scoring game at Coors Field yesterday. The betting odds indicate the oddsmakers and bettors, rightfully, aren't putting too much stock into the low-scoring affair. Coore Field is still the cream of the crop for hitting venues. In addition, MacKenzie Gore hasn't lit MLB on fire. Instead, he has a 4.30 ERA, 4.42 xFIP and 1.46 WHIP in 75.1 innings. Gore's high WHIP can bite him in the butt tonight.
- Home (American Family Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/MIL -162
Injuries limited Jack Flaherty to fewer than 100 innings in each of the previous three seasons. He's outpitched his peripherals during those years, netting a 5.03 xERA in 2020, 4.89 xERA in 2021 and 4.94 xERA in 2022. Additionally, Flaherty's 3.78 ERA in his last 159.2 innings pitched was lower than his 4.43 FIP, 4.17 xFIP and 4.28 SIERA.
He's playing with fire with lousy control, too. In 41.0 innings since last year, he had a 15.3 BB%. Moreover, Flaherty's 19.6 K% was lackluster. The righty also struggled mightily with all hitters last year. He ceded a .344 wOBA to righties and .368 wOBA to lefties. As a result, it's exciting to stack the Brewers against him tonight.
- Manny Machado excels with the platoon advantage. In 355 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, he has had a .352 OBP, .214 ISO and 125 wRC+.
- C.J. Cron is a borderline unstoppable force against lefties at Coors Field. In 183 plate appearances against lefties in Colorado since 2021, he has had a .388 OBP, .391 ISO, .445 wOBA and 157 wRC+.
- Jesse Winker had a forgettable year while playing through injuries for the Mariners last year. Thankfully, his exit velocity has rebounded this season. Further, Winker has had a .382 OBP, .193 ISO and 135 wRC+ against righties since 2021, even with his down year last season.
- Once upon a time, the Brewers turned a former Marlin into an MVP. Christian Yelich lifted his launch angle with the Brewers and enjoyed immense success. Brian Anderson might be another Marlin to Brewer launch-angle-lift success story. According to FanGraphs, his 15.9-degree launch angle on 14 batted balls this year is higher than his previous career-high mark of 11.3 degrees. Anderson's 93.3-mph average exit velocity on the small sample for the Brewers is the highest of his career and has helped him slug three homers. There might be something brewing with Anderson, bad pun intended.
- Sadly, gamers can't use Cron and Rowdy Tellez together on DK teams, rendering Tellez a tournament pick on that platform. He's an excellent punt in all game types at FD, though. In 297 plate appearances at home against righties for the Brewers, he has had a .305 ISO and 125 wRC+.
- Nelson Cruz hit cleanup in both of San Diego's games against a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The lineup spot alone is a reason to use him as a punt on FD. Cruz has also had a .355 OBP and 122 wRC+ against lefties since 2021. He's included in this section strictly for FD.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
I nearly listed the Rockies as a cash-game stack. However, enough below-average pitchers are getting the ball to siphon some roster percentage away from Coors Field. So, the Rockies can be used in all game types. The Brewers are also a dreamy source of offense, with a handful of bargain options. Gamers can squeeze a few stud hitters into their lineup with the top pitchers because of the abundant value available among the punt hitters.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
