MLB DFS has a sizable 11-game slate at DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The action begins at both DFS providers at 7:05 pm ET. The pitching is top-heavy. Thankfully, there’s a mix of intriguing hitters and stacks at various salary points.
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Unfortunately, the bargain bin is bereft of quality pitching options. There aren't even starters one can hold their nose and feel remotely good about clicking into their lineups. As a result, the pitcher table above is filled with high-salaried and medium-salaried suggestions. So, gamers should spend substantial salary-cap space on hurlers in cash games and tournaments.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs. DET
Valdez had a clean debut this year, spinning five scoreless innings on six hits, one hit batter, zero walks and four strikeouts. In addition, the veteran lefty has delighted the home crowd in recent seasons. According to FanGraphs, Valdez has a 3.41 ERA, 2.93 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP, 9.4 BB% and 26.6 K% in 184.2 innings in Houston since 2020.
Valdez has a cupcake matchup tonight. Javier Baez and Eric Haase are the only hitters in Detroit's projected lineup with threatening numbers against lefties since 2021. Additionally, they're a strikeout-prone group, elevating Valdez's floor and ceiling. The betting info is compelling for using Valdez in DFS as well. According to Betting Pros, the Astros are -286, and the game's total is 7.5 runs. Valdez is on nearly equal footing with the next pitcher, but the discount for using the lefty gets him the nod as the top-ranked pitcher tonight.
Shane Bieber (CLE) at OAK
The only reason Bieber is listed behind Valdez is the gap in salary between the pitchers. Cleveland's righty is an exciting selection tonight. The 27-year-old righty had a quality start in his season debut, throwing six scoreless innings on six hits, zero walks and three strikeouts.
Further, Bieber was sharp and a workhorse last year. He piled up 200.0 innings, amassing a 2.88 ERA, 2.98 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 4.6 BB%, 25.0 K% and 31.4 CSW%. The A's shockingly erupted for double-digit runs last night. Nevertheless, they have a below-average offense. Six of their projected starters have a 101 wRC+ or lower against right-handed pitchers since 2021. And the betting info is outstanding, with the Guardians -200 and the total a pitcher-friendly 7.0 runs. Gamers should save salary using Valdez in cash games at FD's single-pitcher platform. Yet, there are enough value hitters to allow gamers to use Valdez and Bieber together in cash games on DK.
GPP Recommendations:
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. LAA
The Angels got to George Kirby last night and have the firepower to give Castillo trouble tonight. Yet, five of their projected starting hitters have struck out in at least 23.2% of their plate appearances against right-handed pitchers since 2021, and only two have struck out in under 20% of their plate appearances.
And, of course, Castillo is a front-line starter. The righty was downright dominant at home after joining the Mariners at least year's trade deadline. Castillo has held opponents to one run or fewer in at least six innings in five of six starts at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. He also struck out at least six batters in all six turns. Finally, the Mariners are -164, and the game's total is only 7.0 runs. Thus, Castillo is a nifty tournament alternative to Valdez and Bieber.
Andrew Heaney (TEX) vs. BAL
Heaney is the closest thing to a viable bargain tonight. The lefty has teased potential with decent or better ERA estimators but failed to translate those numbers into a palatable ERA for most of his career. However, he put it together with the Dodgers last season. In 72.2 innings, Heaney had a 3.10 ERA, 3.39 xERA, 2.83 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, 6.1 BB%, 35.5 K% and a 32.5 CSW%. Can he duplicate his success in a new organization this year? The Rangers certainly hope he can.
Heaney gets his first chance to impress his new employer in a regular-season contest tonight after building up to more than 80 pitches in his final start in spring training. The matchup isn't too shabby for Heaney tonight. Only three of Baltimore's projected starters have a wRC+ above 100 against lefties since 2021 or since debuting in the majors last season. The game's total of 8.5 runs is a reason to tread carefully. Still, the Rangers are -140, and Heaney has strikeout upside. Thus, Heaney is worth firing some bullets on in tournaments.
Top Lineup Stacks
Dylan Dodd is getting a baptism by fire in his first big-league start for the Braves. The lefty pitched 89.0 innings in High-A, 46.1 in Double-A and 6.2 in Triple-A in 2022. He'll have a steep learning curve against the Red Birds tonight. Six of St. Louis's projected starters have torched left-handed pitchers for higher than a 130 wRC+ since 2021. They're a challenging assignment for even the game's best southpaws, and Dodd is making his debut. Thus, the Cardinals are the most exciting stack tonight.
- Home (Yankee Stadium)
- Value: Low (DK)/Medium (FD)
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/NYY -155
Matt Strahm has spent most of his career in the majors as a reliever. The Phillies are starting him tonight, though. He struggled as a starter when he was last used extensively in that capacity in 2019, recording a 5.29 ERA and allowing a .347 wOBA and 2.09 HR/9 in 81.2 innings. The lefty is likely being asked to pitch above his ability as a starter, and the Bronx Bombers have the power to hammer him. Still, there's a slight risk he could exceed expectations as an opener before handing the ball off to the bullpen.
- Home (T-Mobile Park)
- Value: Low (DK)/High (FD)
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 7.0 Runs/SEA -160
The game's total is a deterrent for stacking the Mariners. The same is true for Seattle's pitcher-friendly park. However, those detractions will throw gamers off the scent, enhancing the appeal of stacking them in tournaments. Jose Suarez is a decent matchup for the Mariners. He had a 4.13 ERA and 3.97 xFIP in 20 starts last year. Suarez's .321 wOBA allowed to righties last year wasn't anything to avoid, either. Seattle's lineup has a few lefty mashers and depth, making it a fun group to stack, with some bargain options worthy of consideration in the bottom half of the order.
- Paul Goldschmidt is a monster against southpaws. Since 2021, he has a .467 OBP, .346 ISO and 227 wRC+ in 277 plate appearances against lefties.
- Nolan Arenado is another lefty killer. He's compiled a .331 OBP, .329 ISO and 152 wRC+ against southpaws since 2021.
- Teoscar Hernandez has destroyed lefties for a .376 OBP, .368 ISO and 191 wRC+ in 237 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
- AJ Pollock is a platoon player at this point in his career. He isn't a lock to get pulled early for a pinch-hitter or defensive replacement, though. Still, the allure of using the right-handed-hitting outfielder at his bargain salary is his excellence against lefties. Pollock has a .337 OBP, .278 ISO and 145 wRC+ against lefties since 2021.
- Brandon Lowe had a disappointing 2022 campaign. Nevertheless, the left-handed hitter has roughed up righties for a .357 OBP, .251 ISO and 141 wRC+ since 2021.
- Jordan Walker has a fantasy-friendly mix of power and speed. The stud prospect hit 19 homers, had a .204 ISO and stole 22 bases in 536 plate appearances in Double-A last year. And according to Baseball-Reference, Walker had a .851 OPS in 127 plate appearances against lefties last year.
Tuesday's Hitter Strategy
It's a good night for a stars-and-scrubs lineup. Fortunately, Pollock, Lowe and Walker are cap-friendly choices. The Cardinals and Mariners are also sources of studs and more value picks.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
