In some types of fantasy football, championship teams aren’t made on the draft day, but in the roster moves and trades, you make after the draft. In best ball, it couldn’t be further from the truth, and as any housing developer will tell you, the foundations are of the utmost importance. In best ball, the first third of the draft can either set you up for success or see you start to sink below the surface.

This article will be the first part of a series of three articles looking at how to approach each third of the draft. In each article, you’ll find strategy advice, results from 2022, positional allocation nuggets, and potential builds for different roster slots.

The beginning of the draft is always filled with optimism and opportunities. Whilst the counter ticks down to the start of the draft every single micro-strategy is available to you, Zero RB maybe? Hero RB feels more like your cup of tea? Or perhaps you’re a Zero WR masochist who enjoys burning money… but I digress. The draft board is open and before that first pick, your mindset should be to stay fluid and take the players you want, before working out your strategy after that point.

• Best Ball Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
• Player Rankings & Notes: QB | RB | WR | TE
• Underdog Best Ball Strategy
• Introduction to Best Ball Leagues

Best Ball Draft Strategy & Advice

Let’s take a look at how to approach the early rounds of best ball fantasy football drafts.

The Start

Because of the way our draft slots are randomized in best ball, many people advocate taking a balanced approach to the first round. For instance, in theory, we stand an 8.3% or one in twelve chance of being allocated each draft slot, no matter how much you’re convinced you always get pick nine. In years where there is a consensus 1.01 pick, such as Justin Jefferson this year and Jonathan Taylor in 2022, it can be hard to be overweight on them if you’re intending on doing a lot of drafts, simply because the 1.01 doesn’t fall to us that often. Meanwhile, a player like Davante Adams or Austin Ekeler who goes closer to the back end of Round 1 is in a position where we might see people reach a few spots or the player might even fall into Round 2. That type of player becomes a lot easier to take an overweight stand on.

Some years the first round becomes very heavily running back orientated, which in turn pushes up second round running backs as people start to feel the fear of missing out and start reaching. This year, however, with Zero RB and Hero RB builds having huge success in 2022, it’s not unusual to see eight receivers go in the first round and up to 13 by the end of Round 2. If your plan is to draft just a handful of teams then sticking close to FantasyPros Best Ball Rankings, or trying not to reach far from ADP whilst getting the player you like best in that range is a sensible approach to the first round.

If you’re planning on drafting a portfolio of best ball teams then tracking your player exposures and balancing out your first round exposure will help mitigate against injuries. Typically I don’t like to fade more than one or two players in these first rounds as all it takes is one big season from a running back and your foundations are looking a little shaky. It can be sensible to aim to keep your exposure at or below 15% for these players and try to keep any players you’ve decided not to fade above 5% when possible.

Following your Round 1 pick, we reach an inflection point of our draft. Following up a wide receiver pick with another, or doing the same with the running back position, will start to force our rosters into certain roster constructions that we must remain cognizant of. The table below shows us 2021-2022 data for how teams faired after the first two rounds, based on the most common builds using these strategies. Whilst FFPC’s TE Premium full PPR format made most starts viable in 2021 that changed significantly in 2022 with three of the four best builds requiring at least one wide receiver in the first two rounds. In 2021 Underdog’s half PPR format saw rosters require a running back in the first two picks to have a good chance of success but that changed drastically in 2022 with wide receivers and tight ends being the keys to success. What remains clear is that different builds will always have different levels of success year to year, because of the way NFL players perform.

What next?

Now that we’re two picks in we’ve laid the first bricks and whilst being aware of what others are doing and if any players are slipping, it’s time to be thinking of the strategies that can help us have the best chances of success. For example, if we started RB-TE on Underdog it might be easy to think we were onto a winner, but in 2022 despite teams who started RB-TE having an 18.0% advance rate, that number cratered if the drafter selected another two running backs before round 7, seeing the advance rate drop to 15.2%, below the average advance rate.

Regardless of whether you’ve started running back heavy or not, we’re now edging towards the Running Back Dead Zone, and whilst every year’s crop of Dead Zone running backs are different, what’s reliable is the fact that wide receivers normally outscore running backs in this area of the draft and because of the success of receivers in recent years, it’s pushing more receivers up early and seeing a 33% increase in the number of running backs in the Dead Zone from last year. The Dead Zone has seen successes emerge, but generally, it’s an area where we can be cautious and not commit large amounts of resources to the position, instead, this is an area of the draft to prioritize wide receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends.

Elite Quarterbacks

The biggest change in 2022 ADP versus previous years is the number of quarterbacks being drafted highly. In 2022 no quarterbacks were drafted on Underdog before the 29th overall pick, with six then drafted between 29 and 60. In 2023 currently, eight quarterbacks are drafted before pick 60 with Patrick Mahomes drafted in the mid-second round and Trevor Lawrence rounding out the eight quarterbacks at pick 60. This is in part due to the success of the 2022 elite quarterbacks with three of them averaging 25 points per game and finishing as top three options at the position. The gulf between them and other options is enough to make it worth having access to their sky-high ceilings. In 2022 there were 63 instances of a quarterback scoring 25 or more points and 26 (41%) came from quarterbacks drafted inside the top 60 picks. Six more came from Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence who have both now been elevated into this early quarterback tier. When the name of the game is spike weeks and big performances, it’s clear that having some exposure to these top quarterbacks is going to be worthwhile.

Early Round Approach

My ideal approach for the first six rounds of drafts is to work from the outlines below, whilst always remembering to treat each draft differently depending on how things fall. If a first round running back fell to the back end of the second, or into the third, I’d be happy to stray away from my preferred method. With running backs like Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard falling to the third rounds, don’t be afraid to start WR-WR and then add a third-round RB as your ‘Hero RB’ – a late-hero if you will, and then stick to the rest of that micro-strategy from there out.

More Best Ball Strategy:

• Hero RB Best Ball Strategy
• Zero RB Best Ball Strategy
• Robust RB Best Ball Strategy
• Late-Round QB Best Ball Strategy
• How to Approach Early Rounds (Premium)
• How to Approach Middle Rounds (Premium)
• How to Approach Late Rounds (Premium)

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – which optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.

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