Dynasty Rookie Draft Busts: Dalton Kincaid (2023 Fantasy Football)

Avoiding landmines in dynasty drafts will never be an exact science. Just as some players will become fantasy heroes from the later rounds (or even the waiver wire), many others will faceplant in the league and be deemed a “bust.”

For context, all of these players are supreme athletes and better at football than anyone reading this. A bust isn’t a bad football player, but instead one who did not deliver a performance that measures up to the capital to acquire him. Where I completely avoided the likes of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Josh Rosen over the years, it is embarrassing to say I got caught up in plenty of Jalen Reagor and Mitchell Trubisky hype. The only thing we can really do is our best.

The 2023 rookie class was hyped up throughout last season. Many dynasty managers stockpiled 2023 picks to cast a wide net on what was to be a stellar group of future fantasy stars. By the time the NFL Draft rolled around, a good many of those touted stars lost a lot of value. This left a vacuum for certain players to rise up and gain value in rookie drafts based on flimsy stats like draft capital and perceived good landing spots. I am urging everyone to avoid these players at cost in their rookie drafts, due to their ADP writing checks their talent is unlikely to be able to cash.

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Dynasty Rookie Busts: Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)

Trying to roster the correct non-Kelce TE in fantasy football is a crapshoot. Similar to Johnston, the excitement around stud TE Kincaid peaked when Josh Allen‘s Buffalo Bills used their first round pick on the Utah receiver. He is certainly a talented player and definitely deserved to be a first round pick. My trouble with Kincaid is the projection that he will plop right into the starting lineup as a big slot receiver, instead of a more traditional TE.

Kincaid does everything generally well, but his route running was not a strength I had highlighted in the scouting report. The difference in getting open against pitiful Pac-12 defenses and against NFL defensive backs is astronomical. Kincaid often struggled to gain separation against keyed coverage on tape. Once a team put a decent plan in place, Kincaid was subject to erasure. I still want him on my roster if I can get him in the second round, but he is currently sporting a late-first (and rising) ADP. For that, I’ll wait and spring for equally talented Michael Mayer or Sam LaPorta.