The 2023 NFL Draft is in the books. Now, it’s on to dynasty rookie drafts. The top prospects didn’t see their fantasy value change much over the past few days. However, some mid and later-round players saw their fantasy value change during the NFL Draft.
While there is no such thing as the real deal, the best way to prepare for rookie drafts is by doing a mock draft. This mock draft has 10 teams and is four rounds long. The scoring system for this mock draft is half-point PPR and superflex. Let’s dive into it.
- NFL Draft Grades for Every Team
- Thor’s Draft Grades (AFC | NFC)
- NFL Draft Day 1 Winners & Losers (Day 2 | Day 3)
- Fitz’s Round 1 NFL Draft Picks: Dynasty Rookie Draft Outlook (Day 2 | Day 3)
1.01 – Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
The former Longhorn was the clear-cut 1.01 pick before the NFL Draft. Landing in Atlanta only helps Robinson’s value, as they were one of the top running teams in the NFL in 2022. The young star is a top-five pick in dynasty startup drafts and redraft leagues.
1.02 – Bryce Young (QB – CAR)
Young was the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and should be the first quarterback picked in rookie drafts. Furthermore, he is the clear-cut 1.02 for me in superflex leagues. Some might be concerned about the quarterback’s size. However, Young is an elite prospect. Furthermore, he will start Week 1.
Despite being the third quarterback drafted this year, Richardson should be the 1.03 pick in superflex drafts because of his massive upside. Meanwhile, owner Jim Irsay already said former Gator would start this season. The only question is when? Meanwhile, Richardson’s rushing ability could make him a fantasy star. Don’t be surprised if he has a Jalen Hurts 2021 season-like year as a rookie.
1.04 – C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU)
The debate between Richardson and Stroud as the QB2 and QB3 in rookie drafts will be interesting. Fantasy teams that need a more stable option should take Stroud. Unfortunately, Houston doesn’t have a legit No. 1 wide receiver. Hopefully, Nico Collins or another young wide receiver can step up this year.
1.05 – Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
Landing in Detroit wasn’t ideal for Gibbs’s fantasy value until the team traded away D’Andre Swift. The Lions should use David Montgomery and Gibbs similarly to how the New Orleans Saints used Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara in 2017. Head coach Dan Campbell was part of that coaching staff.
Fantasy players were hoping Smith-Njigba would land in a more fantasy-friendly spot. However, he remains the top wide receiver in the draft class. Unfortunately, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett limit Smith-Njigba’s short-term upside.
1.07 – Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)
Despite being the last first-round wide receiver drafted Thursday night, Addison landed in the best short-term spot. Justin Jefferson will keep defenses from loading up on the former USC star. Meanwhile, Adam Thielen averaged 6.9 targets per game over the past three years with Jefferson on the team. Those targets now belong to Addison.
1.08 – Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)
After not having enough wide receivers last year, the Ravens have a talented unit. However, Flowers is the team’s new WR1. Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t play last year and has struggled with injuries throughout his career. More importantly, he only signed a one-year deal with the team this offseason. Meanwhile, Rashod Bateman hasn’t been able to stay healthy over the past two years. With Lamar Jackson locked up long-term, Flowers has unlimited upside.
1.09 – Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC)
Johnston was the second wide receiver drafted this year, yet he landed in arguably the best and worst landing spot. Of the first-round wide receivers, Johnston has the best quarterback throwing to him. Unfortunately, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler all have massive target shares. However, things might change a year from now if the Chargers release Williams next offseason.
1.10 – Will Levis (QB – TEN)
Yes, Levis slide to the second night of the NFL Draft. However, why should fantasy players hold that against him? If the Titans traded up to the 31st overall pick and drafted him there, would we care about his draft capital? Ryan Tannehill is entering the final year of his contract and won’t return in 2024. Levis might be a bust, but there is no reason not to take a chance on him in the first round of rookie drafts.
2.01 – Devon Achane (RB – MIA)
Achane was the 84th overall pick in the NFL Draft this year and the fifth running back drafted. Yet, he landed in an excellent short-term landing spot. The Dolphins re-signed Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. this offseason. However, neither should keep Achane from potentially being this year’s Damien Pierce.
2.02 – Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)
Many were surprised when the Bills drafted Kincaid on Thursday night. Most mock drafts had the team targeting a wide receiver in the first round. However, don’t think of Kincaid as a replacement for Dawson Knox but as Josh Allen‘s new big slot receiver. While Stefon Diggs is the top guy in Buffalo, the rookie tight end could pass Gabe Davis as the No. 2 pass catcher this season.
2.03 – Jonathan Mingo (WR – CAR)
Some don’t like Mingo and think he will be a bust. However, I am a big fan of the former Ole Miss wide receiver. His college production wasn’t elite, but he can make plays on the field. More importantly, he landed in an excellent situation. Adam Thielen will start the year as Carolina’s No. 1 wide receiver, but that will change at some point this season. If Bryce Young becomes the star many expect him to be, Mingo will have massive upside.
2.04 – Rashee Rice (WR – KC)
Hopefully, this isn’t another Clyde Edwards-Helaire moment where a player gets pushed up draft boards after landing with the Chiefs. Rice was the touchdown machine the past two years, scoring 19 times on 160 receptions. The former SMU star could have an immediate impact after the team lost JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency. Furthermore, Kadarius Toney hasn’t been able to stay healthy in his career.
2.05 – Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA)
I believe I can speak for everyone in the fantasy football community when I say it’s time for Pete Carroll to join a retirement home. Charbonnet could have been a top-seven rookie pick this year if he landed with just about any other team. Furthermore, I would have ranked him higher than Johnston if the former UCLA star landed with the Philadelphia Eagles or Cincinnati Bengals. Instead, Carroll and the Seahawks decided to hamper Ken Walker III and Charbonnet’s fantasy value Friday night. Despite the poor landing spot, Charbonnet is worthy of a top 15 pick in superflex rookie drafts.
2.06 – Michael Mayer (TE – LV)
When the Raiders traded away Darren Waller this offseason, they created a significant hole at the tight end position. They signed Austin Hooper and O.J. Howard in free agency, but that won’t stop Las Vegas from featuring Mayer as a rookie. The only downside with the rookie is his quarterback and Davante Adams‘ massive target share. Despite those two things, Mayer is a top-12 dynasty tight end.
2.07 – Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI)
While Johnson was a fourth-round NFL Draft pick, he will rise in rookie drafts the sooner we get to training camp. Khalil Herbert is a solid player, but he’s never had a featured role before in the NFL. Meanwhile, D’Onta Foreman only signed a one-year deal this offseason and suddenly finds his roster spot in jeopardy. Don’t be surprised if Johnson ends up being the starting running back in Chicago before Week 1. If Johnson had second-round draft capital on his resume, the former Longhorn would be the clear-cut RB3 in the draft class.
2.08 – Hendon Hooker (QB – DET)
Despite many thinking Hooker would be a first-round NFL Draft pick, the former Volunteer lasted until the third round. Unfortunately, his lack of draft capital means the Lions could replace the rookie next year without him seeing the field. However, that’s not likely. Therefore, Hooker is, at worst, a late second-round pick in superflex dynasty rookie drafts.
2.09 – Kendre Miller (RB – NO)
Miller is a difficult evaluation. The Saints have Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams on the roster. While the former faces a lengthy suspension this year, both running backs will be with the team through the 2024 season. Hopefully, Miller can work his way up the depth chart, but that’s easier said than done.
2.10 – Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN)
Despite all the rumors, Derrick Henry is still a Titan. However, he is entering the final year of his contract. More importantly, Tennessee has to lighten his workload this season. The superstar running back has averaged 24.3 touches per game over the past four years. Spears should have a solid role as a rookie, even with Henry on the roster.
3.01 – Jayden Reed (WR – GB)
Green Bay used a second-round pick on a wide receiver for the second consecutive year. While Reed is a popular mid-round rookie draft pick target, fantasy players should remember that the Packers drafted three wide receivers and two tight ends this year after adding three wide receivers last year. Furthermore, Jordan Love is a total unknown.
3.02 – Marvin Mims (WR – DEN)
Mims is a talented wide receiver. However, Denver isn’t the best ideal landing spot. The team has three talented wide receivers and an impressive second-year tight end. Hopefully, one of the veterans gets traded this offseason, opening up a clear role for the rookie wide receiver.
3.03 – Tank Bigsby (RB – JAC)
Some will argue that Bigsby will severely hamper Travis Etienne‘s fantasy value. That’s not true. However, the former Auburn star is now one of the top handcuffs in fantasy football. Furthermore, Bigsby could have some stand-alone value in deeper leagues.
3.04 – Sam LaPorta (TE – DET)
Detroit got nine receiving touchdowns from their tight ends last season, not named T.J. Hockenson. Meanwhile, Jameson Williams will miss the first six games this year because of a suspension. Furthermore, the Lions waited until the seventh round to draft a wide receiver. LaPorta could finish second on the team in targets this year behind Amon-Ra St. Brown.
3.05 – Josh Downs (WR – IND)
The former UNC star should have gotten drafted earlier than the middle of the third round. Downs has talent and can make plays on all three levels of the field. While Isaiah McKenzie is the current starting slot receiver, it won’t be long until the rookie takes that role from him.
3.06 – Chase Brown (RB – CIN)
Even with Joe Mixon‘s drop in production last year and his off-the-field issues this offseason, Cincinnati waited until the fifth round to draft a running back. However, Brown can fill Samaje Perine‘s role as a rookie. Brown will have some stand-alone value and is one of the top handcuffs in fantasy football.
3.07 – Jalin Hyatt (WR – NYG)
New York didn’t do much to improve their wide receiver core in the offseason. Instead of adding a proven No. 1 wide receiver, the Giants signed several role players. Could Hyatt become Daniel Jones‘ top wide receiver as a rookie?
3.08 – Cedric Tillman (WR – CLE)
While the Browns have spent a third-round pick in three consecutive drafts on a wide receiver, Tillman is the best one. Don’t be surprised if the former Volunteer receiver plays so well in training camp that he is starting alongside Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore in Week 1.
3.09 – Michael Wilson (WR – ARI)
Wilson was one of my favorite wide receivers leading up to the NFL Draft. While the Arizona wide receiver room is crowded, things can change quickly. DeAndre Hopkins wants to be traded, while Marquise Brown is in the last year of his rookie deal. The biggest thing standing in Wilson’s way is his ability to stay healthy.
3.10 – Deuce Vaughn (RB – DAL)
No, Vaughn won’t replace Ezekiel Elliott. Actually, the Cowboys drafting the former Kansas State star keeps the door open for a Zeke return, as the team still doesn’t have a power back on the roster. However, Vaughn will give Dallas a change of pace running back and could have some stand-alone value in deeper leagues.
4.01 – Eric Gray (RB – NYG)
The former Oklahoma running back landed in a solid situation. Saquon Barkley is still around but is on playing on the franchise. More importantly, the superstar has struggled with injuries in his career. If Barkley misses time, Gray has low-end RB2 value while the superstar is out of the lineup.
Houston drafted two wide receivers this year: Dell in the third round and Xavier Hutchinson in the sixth. However, the Texans now have 12 wide receivers on the roster, including two they signed in free agency this offseason and four they drafted over the past three years. Who will step up and become C.J. Stroud‘s favorite target? Maybe it’s Dell.
4.03 – Evan Hull (RB – IND)
While the former Northwestern star was a fifth-round pick, Hull landed in a great spot. The Colts never filled Nyheim Hines‘ passing game role. Furthermore, the depth behind Jonathan Taylor is underwhelming at best. Hull becomes an RB2 if Taylor misses time.
4.04 – Luke Musgrave (TE – GB)
The Packers drafted two tight ends on Friday night. The good news is Robert Tonyan is now in Chicago, and the rest of the veteran tight end unit lacks upside. Unfortunately, Green Bay has added six wide receivers and two tight ends over the past two drafts. Musgrave will have an uphill fight to earn consistent targets this season.
4.05 – Stetson Bennett (QB – LAR)
Despite being the second quarterback drafted on Day 3, Bennett should be the first picked in rookie drafts. The top five quarterbacks this year could be franchise guys. Meanwhile, Bennett will never become a star. Yet, he should develop into a solid backup in Los Angeles. Furthermore, Matthew Stafford couldn’t stay healthy last year. The former Bulldog might end up seeing the field as a rookie.
Washington slid during the NFL Draft because of medical concerns. While he landed with the Steelers, the former Georgia star isn’t going to impact Pat Freiermuth‘s fantasy value much. Pittsburgh wanted the massive tight end because of his blocking ability. Unfortunately, Washington won’t have much fantasy value unless Freiermuth gets hurt. The good news is that Najee Harris saw his fantasy value improve during the draft.
4.07 – Jaren Hall (QB – MIN)
After the first five quarterbacks came off the board in the top 68 picks, seven were drafted in the fourth and fifth rounds, including Hall. Some believe the former BYU star will become a starting quarterback. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins is entering the final year of his contract.
4.08 – Zach Evans (RB – LAR)
Many predicted the Rams would use a Day 2 pick on a running back to pair with Cam Akers. Instead, they waited until the late sixth round to add Evans. However, the former Ole Miss star was an excellent pick. He will earn some snaps behind Akers as a rookie. More importantly, Evans is now the handcuff to a running back who suffered a torn Achilles less than two years ago.
4.09 – Andrei Iosivas (WR – CIN)
Despite being the second wide receiver picked by the Bengals this year, fantasy players will likely draft Iosivas over Charlie Jones. Yes, Tyler Boyd is entering the final year of his contract. However, Cincinnati will have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins around for the long haul. Iosivas is more likely to get cut next year than be a starter, given his sixth-round draft capital.
4.10 – Israel Abanikanda (RB – NYJ)
Reportedly, the Jets would have considered Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round if either made it to their pick. I call nonsense. Breece Hall is one of the top running backs in fantasy football when healthy. However, Abanikanda will push Michael Carter for the RB2 role. If Hall isn’t ready to start the year or can’t handle a full workload, Abanikanda could have some fantasy value.