The NFL season is quickly approaching, and many players are going to fluctuate in value between now and the season starting, but right now, these are the fifteen players who stand out as players to avoid in the first 15 rounds of single quarterback leagues.
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ADP Players to Avoid for Each Round (Fantasy Football 2023)
Here are players to avoid in each round of fantasy football drafts based on ADP.
Round 1 – Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
In 2022 Austin Ekeler thrived, setting a career-best 6.5 targets per game, a dramatic increase from his 2019-21 average of 5.0 per game. This was in part because Justin Herbert struggled through a rib injury that affected his throwing. Also, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both missed plenty of time, meaning Ekeler was the most experienced and best player available for Herbert to lean upon in an offense that suffered from poor playcalling.
Only 16 wide receivers had more targets than Ekeler’s 124, but 28 other running backs averaged more rush attempts per game than Ekelers’ 12.1. Ekeler has talked consistently about not wanting to do the dirty work between the tackles so that he can be more explosive for the high-value situations he is called upon for. Ekeler has scored 18 touchdowns in back-to-back seasons, and as much as the Chargers have no other option at RB, if the touchdowns and targets regress, will his fantasy production go off a cliff?
Round 2 – Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
Jonathan Taylor’s fantasy value cratered in 2022, regressing from being the RB2 in points per game in 2021 all the way down to RB19 last year. Taylor struggled to look anywhere close to his former self with a particularly dry spell between Weeks 3-8 when he had 76 attempts and zero touchdowns to show for it, along with only averaging 13 receiving yards per game. Now with the Colts having Anthony Richardson at quarterback, we should expect Taylor to be more efficient, but it likely comes at the cost of some goal-line work and a dip in targets. For a round-two pick, that’s a dangerous choice to make.
Round 3 – DK Metcalf (WR – SEA)
In 2022 DK Metcalf finished the season as the fantasy WR25 in half PPR points per game, and since then, the team has added a potentially elite option in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and although their styles of play are drastically different, it feels entirely possible that another strong option in the passing game eats into Metcalf’s fantasy production, which was already on a knife’s edge. In 2022 Metcalf delivered only five top 15 weekly finishes in half PPR formats, and for a round-three player, that’s not incredible.
Round 4 – Christian Watson (WR – GB)
If Aaron Rodgers was still in Green Bay, it would be much harder to argue against Christian Watson’s fourth-round cost, but with Jordan Love set to finally become the Packers starter, there is much we simply don’t know. Watson was incredibly efficient for a spell between Between Weeks 10 and 13, putting up 99 PPR points, which was good enough to be the WR3 in that period but then had just one more performance over 12 points for the rest of the season.
For all we know, Romeo Doubs could end up being Love’s primary target, and with Doubs available almost 100 picks later, that feels like a more palatable bet to make in an uncertain situation.
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