The 2023 NFL Draft is in the books. With the NFL Draft comes dynasty rookie draft season! We have you covered with our dynasty rookie draft coverage, and of course, you can complete fast and FREE dynasty rookie mock drafts using our mock draft simulator. While you take that simulator for a spin to prepare for your dynasty rookie mock drafts, check out our latest dynasty rookie mock and analysis from our analysts.
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Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
Since Jaxon Smith-Njigba was announced as the Seahawks’ pick in the NFL Draft, worries have been circulating about Seattle’s usage of three wide receiver sets and his target share with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. These are valid concerns, but before I push back against them, let’s discuss Smith-Njigba as a talent.
In 2021 he was first in yards per route run and first in PFF receiving grade (minimum 50 targets per PFF) while drawing a 22.7% target share alongside Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Smith-Njigba gets typecast as a low aDOT player, but he has also shown the ability to win downfield. In 2021 he was ninth in yards per route run and tied for first in PFF’s deep receiving grade (minimum 15 deep targets per PFF). Smith-Njigba is an elite-level prospect.
With that said, I have a hard time believing the Seahawks burnt a first-round pick on a player they don’t plan to feature, so I believe they will run a ton of 11 personnel in 2023. Regarding the subject of target share, Smith-Njigba can put those concerns to rest quickly and hit the ground running as the second option in this passing attack. While I don’t want to take anything away from Lockett, he hasn’t been a high-end target earner. Over the last four seasons, he’s never ranked higher than 36th in target per route run rate. The addition of Smith-Njigba can allow Lockett to return to stretching the field. Since 2019 he’s ranked top-12 in deep targets twice. Last year he logged the second-lowest aDOT of his career and the lowest YAC per reception mark. Smith-Njigba should garner targets early and often in 2023. Draft him and enjoy.
2.06 – Kendre Miller (RB – NO)
Kendre Miller spent his first two seasons in a two-way platoon with Zach Evans before the latter transferred to Mississippi. Miller flashed talent in a limited sample size, leading the FBS in yards after contact per attempt (5.06) in 2021. But with Evans gone in 2022, Miller was thrust into the RB1 role for the Horned Frogs, where he posted a career-high 23 percent dominator rating. The bell cow rushed for nearly 1400 yards at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds (identical to Bijan Robinson), and his size is enticing in addition to the efficiency he displayed on a per-play basis at the college level. Miller’s career of 3.14 yards per play ranks fourth best in the class. He’s explosive with the ball in his hands, as indicated by his 21 rushes of 15-plus yards last year (tied for the fifth-highest in the class).
Per Sports Info Solutions, Miller also posted the fourth-lowest bust run rate (percentage of plays that resulted in EPA below -1) and finished first in his class in broken tackles per 100 touches (18).
Miller did not test at all during the pre-Draft process (recovering from post-season knee surgery), but that didn’t stop the New Orleans Saints from investing a third-round pick in him during the 2023 NFL Draft. Miller is an ideal home-run hitter and a 1-2 punch fit with veteran Jamaal Williams should Alvin Kamara miss anytime.
3.06 – Luke Musgrave (TE – GB)
One of the top pass-catching tight ends in a loaded rookie TE class, Luke Musgrave should have a significant 2023 role with the Packers, who had bare cupboards at the position before the Draft. Musgrave is a big target (6-6, 253) and runs like a gazelle (4.61). He has the inside track to start for the Packers immediately, but it’s not a slam dunk. Green Bay also drafted TE Tucker Kraft in the third round, and Kraft is a good prospect himself.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. has questionable vision on zone runs. Rodriguez Jr. will take the cutback often as he lacks the speed to get to the edge. He won’t stretch it to the boundary. He is best utilized as a gap scheme back with clear downhill running lanes. Rodriguez Jr. is a dependable volume back and solid interior rusher. Rodriguez Jr. will get what is blocked, but he displays little ability to get more than that. He has a power-back mentality inviting contact, but he doesn’t have the extra thump or leg drive to run over people. Rodriguez Jr. is a straight line and one-speed runner.
5.06 – Charlie Jones (WR – CIN)
Charlie Jones is a dependable chain mover. He has the quickness to gain separation on quick hitters and offers a trusty set of mitts. Jones can chew up opposing secondaries underneath on slants and crossers. Jones offers little after the catch. He forced only two missed tackles beyond the line of scrimmage in 2022. He only managed 1.6-2.7 YAC per reception on short and medium-depth targets. Jones bounced around with Buffalo and Iowa before finding a home with Purdue in 2022. He refused to settle and flashed potential with his big final season. That never-quit attitude will serve him well with sticking with an NFL franchise as a depth receiver. His extensive resumé as a returner (over 122 combined collegiate returns) will help him stick on a roster as he works his way up a receiver depth chart.
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