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Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid: Dameon Pierce, Mike Evans (2023)

Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid: Dameon Pierce, Mike Evans (2023)

We’ve all mistakenly reached on a player in our fantasy drafts. There are those guys we want to believe will finally show the world who they are, the ones we project are in a better situation and should improve, or the player due for a breakout. It’s easy to be blinded by the idea that talent always wins out, but while that sounds nice, we also know this isn’t true.

Eliminating bias and evaluating a situation can save you from making these mistakes come August. Here are two players I believe won’t live up to expectations in 2023.

2023 Fantasy Football Best Ball Draft Advice

Way-Too-Early Redraft Picks to Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football)

Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU) ADP 47, RB19

As far as rookie seasons go, 2022 wasn’t a bad start for Dameon Pierce. The fourth-round selection out of Florida surpassed many people’s expectations. He finished as the overall PPR RB28 in his freshman NFL season, averaging 12.8 fantasy points per game, despite missing the final four games. However, it should be noted that Pierce didn’t have much competition, or help for that matter, in the Houston backfield. The next closest rushing output on the team behind Pierce’s 939 rushing yards was from journeyman RB Dare Ogunbowale with 123 yards.

The Texans got help for Pierce this offseason in the form of former Bills RB Devin Singletary. While that’s a good thing for Pierce and the Texans’ offense, it’s terrible news for his fantasy value. Singletary isn’t a player who will be strictly a change of pace back. New head coach DeMeco Ryans comes from the Kyle Shanahan system, notorious for splitting work between more than one RB. While Ryans was the defensive coordinator in his time with Shanahan in San Francisco, you know some of that philosophy stuck with him and will carry over.

Singletary brings an ability to shoulder double-digit carries every week, plus a propensity for being a talented pass catcher out of the backfield. Over his first four years in Buffalo, Singletary was targeted an average of 48 times and saw an average of 168 carries in those seasons. The Texans’ backfield will be in solid shape heading into 2023, but the addition of Singletary caps what Pierce is capable of from a fantasy football standpoint.

I’m not entirely out on Pierce in 2023, but it’s hard to be excited about him at an average draft position (ADP) of RB19. With Singletary, last season’s PPR RB23, now sharing snaps in the Houston backfield, you’re drafting Pierce at his ceiling, which isn’t a guarantee he’ll come close to hitting. Instead, you’re better off taking a shot on Miles Sanders or J.K. Dobbins, two RBs in a similar range who are far more likely to outperform their ADPs.

Mike Evans (WR – TB) ADP 69, WR30

There is no question that Tamba Bay WR Mike Evans has had a heck of a career. He has notched nine consecutive seasons of 1,000-plus receiving yards, has four seasons with double-digit touchdown totals and only one season with less than five. His worst fantasy finish in those seasons was PPR WR22 in his second season, and his best came the following season when he finished as the PPR WR2.

For as valuable of a fantasy football asset as Evans has been, all good things must end. Unfortunately for him, that end is coming in 2023. Just weeks before the beginning of his tenth NFL season, Evans will hit the dreaded 30-year-old mark, the usual sign a WR is about to see a dip in production. While some manage to stave off the fall for a season or two, those players usually have a talented QB throwing them the ball. In this case, Evans will have either second-year signal caller Kyle Trask or veteran Baker Mayfield behind center. One is unproven, and one has proven to be a downer for WR’s fantasy values.

I understand wanting to believe that Evans still has some gas in the tank, and he very well might. In 2022, he had the fifth-most receiving yards (1,133) and fourth-best catch rate (62.6%) of his career. While his touchdown production dipped below double-digits (six) for the first time since 2019, he still finished as the PPR WR17.

However, that was in an offense with future hall-of-fame QB Tom Brady, who threw the ball a league-leading 45.4 times per game. That number will drop significantly, whether it’s Trask or Mayfield at QB in 2023. Couple that with the presence of Chris Godwin, 2022’s PPR WR19, and the writing is on the wall for the veteran receiver.

Looking at the situation, it’s hard to imagine Evans being more than a situational flex play a handful of times in 2023. Mayfield, who likely will win the starting job out of camp, has supported a single WR1- tier finish in his career — Jarvis Landry, WR12 in 2019. Like anything else, it’s not set in stone that Evans will have a down year. However, I prefer betting on Tyler Lockett, Brandon Aiyuk or George Pickens at a similar ADP.

 

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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.

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