Several factors go into building a winning best ball team. One of those factors is identifying which players will let your team down and bust. Another is knowing which players have league-winning upside, especially in the later rounds. To help you build an elite best ball roster, I will identify the most likely bust candidate and potential league winner for every NFL team.
Today I break down the AFC South teams: the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans.
The ADP used for this article comes from Underdog Fantasy.
- More AFC Busts & League Winners: East | North
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Best Ball Bust Candidates: AFC South
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU): ADP 69.1 | RB22
Pierce would have been a league winner last year if it wasn’t for an ankle injury that cost him the final four weeks. The rookie was the RB15, averaging 11.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game before the injury. Unfortunately, the Texans improved the depth behind him this offseason by signing Devin Singletary. While the veteran isn’t a star running back, he’s a massive upgrade over Rex Burkhead and others. Singletary’s arrival won’t crush Pierce’s fantasy value, but it does limit it. Fantasy players are better off taking Cam Akers in the same range or waiting a few more rounds and targeting a running back with more upside, like Javonte Williams or James Cook.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND): ADP 65.3 | WR34
I called Pittman an underrated player last year. Unfortunately, the former USC star didn’t live up to expectations, ending the season as the WR23, averaging 10.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, down from 11.4 the year before. Furthermore, his receiving yards and touchdowns declined last year despite seeing an increase in receptions, targets, and routes ran. However, the veteran is a solid value as a sixth-round pick and the 34th wide receiver off the board. While Pittman won’t be a massive bust, fantasy players will get more value from Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson. Both are getting drafted a few picks after the former USC star.
Evan Engram (TE – JAC): ADP 98.2 | TE8
Last year Engram was a popular sleeper candidate. He was the TE6, averaging 8.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, the veteran scored half his fantasy points over a four-week window. Meanwhile, the former Ole Miss Star averaged only 4.5 targets and only 5.4 fantasy points per game in the other 13 games of the year. Engram would have been as the TE20 over a 17-game space with that fantasy points per game average last season. More importantly, the Jaguars added Calvin Ridley and Brenton Strange this offseason. After being a late-round sleeper a year ago, Engram is not worthy of his ADP despite his recent contract extension.
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN): ADP 23.9 | RB8
Frankly, the Titans don’t have a clear-cut bust candidate on the roster, but Henry could be that guy this year. The superstar was the RB4 in 2022, averaging 17.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, the average was the lowest of his career since 2018. Furthermore, Henry has averaged under 4.5 yards per rushing each of the past two seasons after averaging at least 5.1 yards per rushing attempt the previous two years. While the superstar running back isn’t a bad pick, given his ADP, I would target a wide receiver like DeVonta Smith or Tee Higgins in the same range instead.