In Underdog’s Best Ball Mania (BBM) III tournament, 239 different non-quarterbacks were drafted in Round 18 (the last round) of drafts in the final two weeks of drafting. Of those 239, just 15 recorded enough average pick points (65) to be among the top 100 flex players in 2022. Obviously, it’s rare for last-round picks to make a meaningful difference in best ball, but if we can highlight which players even have a slightly above-average chance of doing so, it will give us an edge against a field of over 600,000 contestants.
Depending on the stacks you’re building out or the roster construction you’re filling out, any of these players could be viable options. None of these are sexy picks by any means (they’re 18th-round picks for a reason), but it’s about identifying dart throws that at least have a chance at hitting the board even if it’s not a bullseye.
Below is a list of several running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends that I’m considering drafting with my final draft pick as they all currently have Round 18 ADPs on Underdog. Additionally, I have provided a brief description of his value proposition based on preseason usage, trends, and news. I’ll be updating this list for the last couple of weeks of the preseason as ADPs shift and player news emerges.
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Fantasy Football Draft Dart Throws
I continue to be a Trey McBride stan, despite Zach Ertz (a 33-year-old tight end coming off of a mid-November ACL/MCL tear) returning to practice. Arizona figures to be passing the ball a ton, and the Cardinals’ offensive coordinator Drew Petzing has already mentioned McBride as a part of the Cardinals’ game plans. More encouraging is that Arizona used multiple tight ends on 11 out of 24 plays in their second preseason game.
For the second-straight preseason game, Adam Trautman played ahead of Greg Dulcich. This is probably one of the biggest signals that I don’t think should be ignored. Not only is Trautman playing ahead of Dulcich, but Sean Payton also brought Trautman over specifically from New Orleans, where he coached him for his first two seasons. Read the tea leaves.
Cade Otton returns to his role as a starter for the second year with Cameron Brate now out of the picture, so his 58.2% routes run rate from last year should go up. Sure, the downgrade from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask is huge, but with that you’re getting a massive ADP discount. With no other established receiving threats behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Otton should have ample opportunities to earn his fair share of targets.
Currently, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the only two Dolphins pass catchers being drafted in the first 17 rounds of Underdog drafts and they both have a round one and round two ADP, respectively. Meanwhile, Durham Smythe played on every snap and ran a route on every dropback with the starters in Miami’s second preseason game. Mike Gesicki, who is no longer with the team, leaves behind eight end-zone targets from last year — Smythe could be one of the most undervalued red-zone threats.
Last updated: 8/28
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
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