We dive into the numbers of Week 1 to give you waiver wire and trade advice specific to each NFL team ahead of Week 2. You can find all of the analysis in Andrew Erickson’s Fantasy Football Forecast for Week 2. And below take a closer look at a few players of note ahead of the weekend.
- More Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Kansas City Chiefs
Buy Rashee Rice
No Travis Kelce surely suggested that we would see major bumps in production from the likes of the Chiefs WRs such as Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore. That turned out to not be the case, particularly with Moore. His playing time was solid – 69% snap share lead all Chiefs WRs – but he wasn’t running as many routes as you’d think. He amassed a 65% route participation rate on 29 routes run – equivalent to what Josh Reynolds did in the Lions offense, last season. Woof. Not nearly the role I envisioned during the preseason. And to add insult to injury, Moore commanded only four targets (14% target rate, 8% target share) and finished with zero catches (one called back by penalty). Double woof. And to make it a triple woof…. Moore was not a full-time slot WR as he projected during the preseason. Rookie second-round pick, Rashee Rice, ran all 11 of his routes from the slot and earned 5 targets. 45% target rate per route run and 14% target share tied for the team lead.
So, although the big narrative surrounding the Chiefs WRs is to be down on guys like Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney – rightfully so – what’s being overlooked is the massive buy Rice looks like right now. He was a very productive college WR out of SMU and was drafted 55th overall by Kansas City. He rose to the opportunity when other Chiefs WRs failed to do so, and that matters. Especially when the slot role was part of the thesis behind Moore as a target during fantasy football draft season. But if Rice is seeing more opportunities in the slot, he will continue to produce at a higher rate. In his rookie debut despite playing just 20 snaps (31%), Rice caught 3 for 5 targets for 39 yards and 1 touchdown. Toney also saw 5 targets on just 12 routes run – typical high target rate standard for Toney – but he was plagued by drops. Don’t want any piece of this guy you can’t put together any consistency.
As for Moore versus Rice – yes, I think we are there already – I’ll take Rice first in my rest-of-season rankings. There’s room for him to grow in terms of snaps and he is already showcasing the ability to command targets at a high level, something Moore has yet to show at any point in the NFL.
No. 2 tight end Noah Gray ran a route on 78% of the dropbacks, which basically just confirms his position as a full-time player if Travis Kelce should miss any more time this season. He tied for the team-high with five targets, catching three balls for 31 yards.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire drew the start but was not effective. 1 target and 22 yards on 6 carries. 22% snap share. But his presence along with Jerick McKinnon sprinkled in (31%) snap share limited Isiah Pacheco to a sub-50% snap share. McKinnon also out-snapped Pacheco 3-1 inside the 10-yard line.
But Pacheco was more involved in the receiving game – leader in routes with four catches on four targets, 22% target rate per route run – to go along with 8 carries for 23 yards (falling just short of the end zone).
Calculating Pacheco’s opportunity share on 12 touches – essentially the total expected fantasy points for an RB in their backfield – he owned a 60% bell cow workload when factoring the value of his specific opportunities. His total offensive share expected point total was 12%.
He’s still the clear lead in the backfield, and I think his boosted receiving role is no fluke. Had he not been stopped short at the 2-yard line, there would likely be no concern about Pacheco for fantasy managers. My actual concern for Pacheco – and why I shied away from him in drafts – is the fact that I don’t think his play style is sustainable. He runs like a maniac. And we saw him get shaken up in this game, having to sit out a drive. Therefore, I am not a super gun hoe trying to acquire him. But if I did have him on my roster, I’d surely be using him in this encouraging role.
Detroit Lions
Add Sam LaPorta
Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta was solid in his debut, commanding five targets for 5 catches and 39 yards. He finished third in the team in route participation (72%). This number in a vacuum is excellent for a tight and is even better considering, the Lions offense is mostly depleted of talent outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Josh Reynolds stepped up as the clear-cut No. 2 on Thursday night – 7 targets for 80 yards – while veteran Marvin Jones Jr. looked like absolute dust. Just two catches for 8 yards on 6 targets. Woof. Dan Campbell better play my Kalif Raymond over him next week. Raymond had more yards (20) than Moore, Toney and Jones combined.
Main takeaway: Add LaPorta if you need a warm body at tight end.
Atlanta Falcons
Hold Drake London, Kyle Pitts
Arthur Smith’s offensive approach is impacting fantasy production. No. 2 RB Tyler Allgeier impressed with 15 carries for 75 yards and two touchdowns playing a 56% snap share. Bijan Robinson continues to shine with 10 rushes for 56 yards and six receptions for 27 yards plus a touchdown (33% target share). He had an insane, 77% route participation. That is extremely high for a running back.
The RB duo combined for 34 touches. Smith clearly wants to get both his RBs involved in games where they can dictate the pace and not have to press the passing game. Desmond Ridder only attempted 18 passes. Therefore, I’d be looking to acquire Allgeier on the cheap because I don’t think him getting double-digit touches is going to go away with the Falcons’ easy schedule this season. People will complain about the Bijan usage…but the guy is just simply so good he can make up for it. His TD grab was NASTY. Every time he touches the ball…I literally think he might score.
Ideally, the way to play this in fantasy is to just get BOTH of these guys on your roster, and start them each every week.
But Desmond Ridder‘s as QB1 raises questions as he had more catches than WR Drake London, who played on 90% of the snaps. London had one target and zero receptions (dropped pass). The offense was reluctant to let Ridder “let it loose.” With three timeouts inside two minutes during the first half, Atlanta seemed in no hurry to try and move the ball aggressively downfield. By the conservative play calling, Smith would rather run a draw on 3rd and 10, than throw a slant or post to pick up the first down.
Things might not get better soon either, with the Packers and stud cornerback, Jaire Alexander, up next.
Tight end Kyle Pitts also was hardly used but ended up with more yards than London (2 catches for 44 yards). He was basically only targeted downfield, earning a week-high 83% air yards share. Again, this is a bit noisy because Ridder only threw for 63 air yards as Bijan was the leading receiver. 75 of Ridder’s yards came after the catch. Still, this is hardly super encouraging because Pitts wasn’t playing a full-time role. 62% snap share was just barely ahead of Jonnu Smith. However, he was mostly running routes (77% route participation) which is very good for a tight end.
Pitts and London are far from buy-lows at this point. They are holds for now. If I had to buy low on one of them, it would be London. He is still seeing alpha usage as a receiver, which is not so true for Pitts. Would be happy to trade a bench asset for London based on his talent alone. Totally fine sitting on London’s talent if I do not have to start him.
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