Welcome back, everybody! We’ve got NFL Week 1 officially in the books and a lot to recap from ALL the action! The 2023 edition of the usage report will be slightly different than in the past, where I won’t necessarily be bombarding you with several long charts and tables included in the article. We live in the year 2023, where bite-size and easy-to-digest content is the way, the masses consume content. My goal with this weekly piece is to provide you with the KEY ACTION items – waiver wire pickups, trade, add, drop, stash, buy, sell, start, sit, etc. – for your fantasy football team based on what happened the previous week. Let me do the work of scouring through the data, so you can just follow my lead. As my college marketing professor always said, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is at its finest.
Obviously, I’ll be citing data and what I watched on film from the weekend’s past matchups highlighting what matters most and what’s potentially just noise. I will make a strong effort to feature players who are coming off polarizing performances, as they are sure to be the ones fantasy managers have the most question marks about.
And I’d be more than happy to include certain tables where I see they fit and/or there is a demand.
Again, the idea behind the usage report has always been about identifying which players are running routes, seeing high snap shares, and earning high-value targets as these tend to be precursors for future fantasy production. And sometimes they don’t always show up in the normal box score.
So, without further ado…let’s unveil the 2023 Usage Report for Week 1, to prepare for success in Week 2. But this time under the new name: Fantasy Football Week 2 Rankings Forecast: Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets
Time to ride the lightning. Because the forecast calls for a SHOCKINGLY fun Week 2 slate.
For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 1’s action.
Fantasy Football Forecast
Kansas City Chiefs
Buy Rashee Rice
No Travis Kelce surely suggested that we would see major bumps in production from the likes of the Chiefs WRs such as Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore. That turned out to not be the case, particularly with Moore. His playing time was solid – 69% snap share lead all Chiefs WRs – but he wasn’t running as many routes as you’d think. He amassed a 65% route participation rate on 29 routes run – equivalent to what Josh Reynolds did in the Lions offense, last season. Woof. Not nearly the role I envisioned during the preseason. And to add insult to injury, Moore commanded only four targets (14% target rate, 8% target share) and finished with zero catches (one called back by penalty). Double woof. And to make it a triple woof…. Moore was not a full-time slot WR as he projected during the preseason. Rookie second-round pick, Rashee Rice, ran all 11 of his routes from the slot and earned 5 targets. 45% target rate per route run and 14% target share tied for the team lead.
So, although the big narrative surrounding the Chiefs WRs is to be down on guys like Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney – rightfully so – what’s being overlooked is the massive buy Rice looks like right now. He was a very productive college WR out of SMU and was drafted 55th overall by Kansas City. He rose to the opportunity when other Chiefs WRs failed to do so, and that matters. Especially when the slot role was part of the thesis behind Moore as a target during fantasy football draft season. But if Rice is seeing more opportunities in the slot, he will continue to produce at a higher rate. In his rookie debut despite playing just 20 snaps (31%), Rice caught 3 for 5 targets for 39 yards and 1 touchdown. Toney also saw 5 targets on just 12 routes run – typical high target rate standard for Toney – but he was plagued by drops. Don’t want any piece of this guy you can’t put together any consistency.
As for Moore versus Rice – yes, I think we are there already – I’ll take Rice first in my rest-of-season rankings. There’s room for him to grow in terms of snaps and he is already showcasing the ability to command targets at a high level, something Moore has yet to show at any point in the NFL.
No. 2 tight end Noah Gray ran a route on 78% of the dropbacks, which basically just confirms his position as a full-time player if Travis Kelce should miss any more time this season. He tied for the team-high with five targets, catching three balls for 31 yards.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire drew the start but was not effective. 1 target and 22 yards on 6 carries. 22% snap share. But his presence along with Jerick McKinnon sprinkled in (31%) snap share limited Isiah Pacheco to a sub-50% snap share. McKinnon also out-snapped Pacheco 3-1 inside the 10-yard line.
But Pacheco was more involved in the receiving game – leader in routes with four catches on four targets, 22% target rate per route run – to go along with 8 carries for 23 yards (falling just short of the end zone).
Calculating Pacheco’s opportunity share on 12 touches – essentially the total expected fantasy points for an RB in their backfield – he owned a 60% bell cow workload when factoring the value of his specific opportunities. His total offensive share expected point total was 12%.
He’s still the clear lead in the backfield, and I think his boosted receiving role is no fluke. Had he not been stopped short at the 2-yard line, there would likely be no concern about Pacheco for fantasy managers. My actual concern for Pacheco – and why I shied away from him in drafts – is the fact that I don’t think his play style is sustainable. He runs like a maniac. And we saw him get shaken up in this game, having to sit out a drive. Therefore, I am not a super gun hoe trying to acquire him. But if I did have him on my roster, I’d surely be using him in this encouraging role.
Detroit Lions
Buy Jahmyr Gibbs, Add Sam LaPorta
We’ll start at the top.
Veteran free agent signing David Montgomery: 77% snap share, 21 touches. 12th overall rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs: 27% snap share, 9 touches.
Probably not the split workload anyone drafting Gibbs in Round 3 was looking forward to. Now, I was never opposed to drafting Gibbs in that range because you are expecting a first-year player’s role to grow as the season progresses. But after Week 1, it seems like these two Lions RBs should have been drafted closer together. Because Montgomery will continue to get fed touches based on his overwhelming Week 1 usage. He’s not the greatest or most explosive running back – 21 carries for 74 yards and 1 TD – but he can sure compile counting stats with volume in plus-matchups. And he owns the slight lean in goal-line usage over Gibbs. However, he also had no targets and that was accompanied by poor route participation. He was often kept into block on third downs, so just be wary that his production could suffer in negative game scripts. But the Lions playing the weak NFC doesn’t forecast for the Lions to be trailing in many games, making Monty a solid fantasy RB2 here on out. With a favorable schedule, he is probably a buy.
As for Jahmyr Gibbs, it was an up-and-down debut. He flashed the explosiveness and speed that we fell in love with during the draft process, but his overall usage wasn’t there for fantasy. He earned 37% of the team’s expected fantasy value to David Montgomery‘s 63%. However, had he scored – which he easily should have done but he tripped over himself – fantasy managers wouldn’t be complaining. I was honestly not discouraged by his debut as the mainstream seems to be. Again, as steady as Montgomery is, he’s not a true difference-maker. Gibbs totaled 60 yards on 9 touches/19 snaps. 6.6 yards per touch, 3.2 yards per snap. If Montgomery had not scored, then would have posted nearly identical fantasy point totals. Gibbs totaled seven points in half-PPR. 0.37 fantasy points per snap (tied with Josh Jacobs last year). Go trade for him now.
Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta was solid in his debut, commanding five targets for 5 catches and 39 yards. He finished third in the team in route participation (72%). This number in a vacuum is excellent for a tight and is even better considering, the Lions offense is mostly depleted of talent outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Josh Reynolds stepped up as the clear-cut No. 2 on Thursday night – 7 targets for 80 yards – while veteran Marvin Jones Jr. looked like absolute dust. Just two catches for 8 yards on 6 targets. Woof. Dan Campbell better play my Kalif Raymond over him next week. Raymond had more yards (20) than Moore, Toney and Jones combined.
Main takeaway: Add LaPorta if you need a warm body at tight end.
Atlanta Falcons
Hold Drake London, Kyle Pitts
Arthur Smith’s offensive approach is impacting fantasy production. No. 2 RB Tyler Allgeier impressed with 15 carries for 75 yards and two touchdowns playing a 56% snap share. He dominated red-zone usage with four carries inside the 20-yard line.
Bijan Robinson continues to shine with 10 rushes for 56 yards and six receptions for 27 yards plus a touchdown (33% target share). He had an insane, 77% route participation. That is extremely high for a running back.
The RB duo combined for 34 touches. Smith clearly wants to get both his RBs involved in games where they can dictate the pace and not have to press the passing game. Desmond Ridder only attempted 18 passes. Therefore, I’d be looking to acquire Allgeier on the cheap because I don’t think him getting double-digit touches is going to go away with the Falcons’ easy schedule this season. People will complain about the Bijan usage…but the guy is just simply so good he can make up for it. His TD grab was NASTY. Every time he touches the ball…I literally think he might score.
Ideally, the way to play this in fantasy is to just get BOTH of these guys on your roster, and start them each every week.
But Desmond Ridder‘s as QB1 raises questions as he had more catches than WR Drake London, who played on 90% of the snaps. London had one target and zero receptions (dropped pass). The offense was reluctant to let Ridder “let it loose.” With three timeouts inside two minutes during the first half, Atlanta seemed in no hurry to try and move the ball aggressively downfield. By the conservative play calling, Smith would rather run a draw on 3rd and 10, than throw a slant or post to pick up the first down.
Things might not get better soon either, with the Packers and stud cornerback, Jaire Alexander, up next.
Tight end Kyle Pitts also was hardly used but ended up with more yards than London (2 catches for 44 yards). He was basically only targeted downfield, earning a week-high 83% air yards share. Again, this is a bit noisy because Ridder only threw for 63 air yards as Bijan was the leading receiver. 75 of Ridder’s yards came after the catch. Still, this is hardly super encouraging because Pitts wasn’t playing a full-time role. 62% snap share was just barely ahead of Jonnu Smith. However, he was mostly running routes (77% route participation) which is very good for a tight end.
Pitts and London are far from buy-lows at this point. They are holds for now. If I had to buy low on one of them, it would be London. He is still seeing alpha usage as a receiver, which is not so true for Pitts. Would be happy to trade a bench asset for London based on his talent alone. Totally fine sitting on London’s talent if I do not have to start him.
Carolina Panthers
Sell Miles Sanders
Miles Sanders displayed bell-cow potential with 18 carries for 72 yards and active involvement in the passing game. He only earned a 57% snap share, but he was FED with 22 touches and 24 total opportunities in the backfield. His four catches for 26 on 6 targets were the most receiving usage he has seen 2020. Considering how badly the perception of the Panthers is coming out of this game, Sanders initially looked like a buy for me. I don’t want to be slow to hop on bell cow usage when Carolina is forced to rely heavily on their RBs due to a lack of overall playmakers. RB2 Chuba Hubbard chipped in 11 touches of his own posting a total of 69 yards. However, Hubbard was very much involved early on and saw some red zone usage over Sanders. Was stuffed on 4th and 1. But also worked a lot on third downs. Carolina also seemed very “in” on getting Laviska Shenault touches out of the backfield during the opening drive. Sanders has 8 carries for 28 yards in the first half and zero targets. Most of his targets came in total comeback mode. So, if you have Sanders, I’d try to sell high. The TD equity in this offense isn’t great and I am skeptical his target share (19%) stays this high without 3rd down work. He only ran a route on 45% of dropbacks.
As for the receiving options, TE Hayden Hurst led the Panthers in targets with 7 (23% target share, 64% route participation), going 5-41-1. Reliable underneath option for Bryce Young.
However, veteran Adam Thielen had a disappointing outing with 2 receptions for 12 yards. Terrace Marshall Jr. and Jonathan Mingo saw a TON of air yards each…but neither was able to capitalize. The downside to having a rookie quarterback under center. Don’t go chasing them against a strong NO secondary in Week 2, that is going to give Young and company more issues.
Baltimore Ravens
Avoid Ravens backfield
J.K. Dobbins‘ season-ending injury creates opportunities for Justice Hill, particularly as the preferred red zone back (three carries inside the 10-yard line). He scored twice on Sunday, and his usage is a carryover from him being used OVER Gus Edwards during the preseason. Edwards scored the 2-point conversion after Hill’s first TD.
Next drive, Gus Bus was first up. But again, Hill was seeing the majority of red zone looks. I wish I could come to you confidently saying it will be Edwards or Hill. Edwards has traditionally been the next man up, but a new OC adds a new wrinkle that perhaps Hill is the better fit. He also “looks” more like the Dobbins mold.
Also, Baltimore has never been shy of signing free agents off the street. Kareem Hunt is the most logical name that comes to mind, given he played under Todd Monken in 2019 with the Browns. I would let others overbid Edwards/Hill. Because I think this backfield is not complete, especially with Melvin Gordon being added from the practice squad. They are also dealing with multiple injuries across the offensive line that could be problematic.
Zay Flowers showcased his talent with 11 touches, 9 receptions for 78 yards on 10 targets, and two carries for 9 yards, establishing himself as the Ravens’ WR1. A Week 1 leader in target share at 48% without Mark Andrews. In his first game as a pro. ELITE. Ran the most routes (87%) and saw a whopping four red-zone targets.
Isaiah Likely disappointed with just one catch for 4 yards. It was Lamar Jackson‘s first pass of the game. Likely played a lot – 72% snap share, just 55% route participation – but it was the Flowers show. And it was by design. His opportunities are not going away.
Rashod Bateman didn’t play a lot (39% snap share). But his impact was felt when he was on the field for sure. 3 catches for 35 yards on 3 targets.
Odell Beckham Jr. actually led the WRs in snaps played but was not used much. Still, he looked damn good when thrown the ball. Picked up a defensive PI and made a nice over-the-shoulder grab late. There are a lot of dusty 30-plus-year-old WRs, but OBJ ain’t one from what I can tell.
Houston Texans
Sell Dameon Pierce, Buy Nico Collins
Dameon Pierce struggled as expected with 11 carries for 38 yards and 2 catches for 9 yards. Houston did as they did during the preseason, where Pierce would play a few drives and then get replaced by Devin Singletary. Mike Boone was specifically used during the 2-minute drill.
That resulted in a 45% snap share for Pierce. Not great. Still think he’s over-reliant on being a game script-dependent back that thrives most when the game is close. Again, I was firmly against drafting Pierce because I knew this Week 1 matchup would be tough. Especially with all the offensive line injuries the Texans are dealing with. Got worse with OT George Fant knocked out with a shoulder injury. The Colts’ should be a closer matchup in Week 2, but the Jaguars couldn’t move the ball on them much through the ground game either – outside a big run from Travis Etienne. Without the 26-yard TD, he and Tank Bigsby combined for 3.0 yards per carry.
If you want Pierce, maybe you should wait one more week. Then again, the Steelers, Falcons and Saints aren’t ringing endorsements of layup matchups for an RB with a sub-50% snap share and a limited receiving role.
C.J. Stroud can move, and he looked way better than the box score would suggest. Stood strong in the pocket, took several hits behind a patchwork OL and was not intimidated despite playing in a house of horrors. He also looked more mobile than he ever was at Ohio State. 4 scrambles for 20 yards.
Big things are coming for Stroud. 242 passing yards was a top-5 mark in Week 1.
Nico Collins emerged as WR1 with 11 targets and 6 receptions for 80 yards, while Robert Woods settled as WR2. Collins was easily Stroud’s preferred target, and he was not afraid to rip it downfield to his big-bodied wideout. 61% air yards share, 158 total air yards. I love Collins next week versus a very beatable Colts no-name secondary.
Robert Woods was WR2 and competent. Moved the chains with 6 for 57 on 10 targets. Basically, his ability to earn targets will nuke Dalton Schultz‘s fantasy appeal. Schultz still played 81% of the snaps (77% route participation) but only earned four targets (two catches). The matchup was bad, so I expect the target gap to close between Woods and Schultz, given the high playing time.
Cleveland Browns
Buy Elijah Moore
Nick Chubb was a standout performer. Rushed for 106 yards despite a long of just 17 rushing yards.
18 for 106 versus Jerome Ford‘s 15 for 36. Same offensive line. Chubb is just that good. And he did it on a 49% snap share. And better yet, Chubb got more receiving work totaling 22 touches with four targets. Buy high before people realize Chubb is poised for his best season ever.
Deshaun Watson‘s rushing ability kept him valuable in fantasy, despite his struggles in passing. 5 for 45 rushing and 1 touchdown on the ground.
He missed some key throws, but his running capability allowed him to finish as a fantasy QB1.
WRs Elijah Moore and Amari Cooper each saw 7 targets (24%), but efficiency was an issue with inaccurate throws and the weather. Moore led with the most yards and was frequently moved around the formation. He also led the team in route participation (86%), but Cooper did miss time with an injury.
Donovan Peoples-Jones played the most snaps but had just one catch. Considering Cooper played the most out-wide, good chance he sees Steelers CB Patrick Peterson. Peterson gave up two TDs to Brandon Aiyuk as the iso WR. Both should be sought-after in trades.
Wouldn’t mind buying low on some of these Browns WRs after the Steelers’ secondary got ripped to shreds by Brock Purdy. Moore’s the guy I would go after in trade after really encouraging usage in Week 1 that did not translate into a ton of fantasy production. Also can be acquired cheaply.
David Njoku is a hold even after zero production. Still saw solid usage – 63% route participation, 73% snap share – and better days will be ahead. Got unlucky with Harrison Bryant coming away with the TD score.
Jack Conklin was also carted off the field. It’s a big injury to their starting offensive line. That could prove problematic against the Steelers in Week 2 for the passing game unless we see rookie Damonte Jones step up. He held his own in pass protection after entering the game on Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals
Buy ALL BENGALS
The Bengals struggled to find their rhythm, potentially due to Joe Burrow‘s return from injury and adverse weather conditions. The guy threw for 82 yards. Just burn the tape.
Joe Mixon remained a bell cow with 16 touches and 5 targets (62% snap share), while Ja’Marr Chase received heavy targeting but managed just 5 receptions for 39 yards (29% target share).
I wouldn’t read too much into this game and would view most Bengals in a buy-low fashion.
Especially Tee Higgins. Higgins is the first player since Amari Cooper to post 0 catches on 8 targets…. (2015)
Cooper went 6-120-2 the following week.
Considering Higgins saw plenty of air yards…151 (64%) he is literally the definition of a BUY-LOW WR in the air yards model coming off a 95% snap share. This Ravens banged-up secondary is in for a rude awakening in Week 2.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Sell Calvin Ridley
Travis Etienne showcased his versatility with 23 touches, 18 carries for 77 yards, 1 26-yard rushing TD, and 5 receptions for 27 yards. Bell cow status with an 80% snap share. Beyond elite route participation – 85%. Ran a route on 30 of 35 Trevor Lawrence dropbacks with no JaMycal Hasty.
Next up KC Chiefs. Might be too late to get him on your roster if you didn’t have him already.
Tank Bigsby scored a goal-line TD but struggled with efficiency. 1.9 yards per carry. If it takes an occasional goal-line score for ETN to see this receiving and snap usage, I’ll chalk it up as a W. Bigsby’s one target also resulted in a turnover. And he showed a lack of awareness by not corollaring another potential fumble that resulted in a Colts TD.
More long-term concerns are the Jags OL. They lost Brandon Scherf and are already down OT Cam Robinson after his suspension.
WR Calvin Ridley appeared as an alpha receiver with 11 targets (34%), 8 receptions for 101 yards, and 1 wide open TD. 98% route participation. Stud. Crushed basically the first half with 7 catches for 92 yards on 8 targets. Ridley caught his last pass with 11:20 remaining in the third quarter. Another was called back on a penalty. But he may have also been wide open for another TD later in the game that Lawrence didn’t see him on. If you drafted Ridley, you feel great. But anytime you are sitting on something this highly valued, you can sell it for a king’s ransom. Because Ridley won’t face the no-named Colts secondary every week that might be the worst in the NFL between the guys he lined up versus on Sunday.
Zay Jones emerged as WR2 with a great TD catch (91% route participation, 22% target share) while Christian Kirk‘s preseason usage concerns may have carried over into the regular season, with just 3 targets (9%) and 1 reception for 9 yards. Kirk snaps (60%) and routes (70%) were down big time. He is entering more of the TD or bust, side of things and can only be trusted in plus slot matchups. Especially with Evan Engram also running more routes over the middle of the field, Kirk is the odd man out.
Makes Zay Jones the BUY-LOW candidate while he still has the perception as the WR3 on the team…while the usage says otherwise.
Indianapolis Colts
Sell Michael Pittman Jr.
Anthony Richardson‘s impressive rookie debut makes him a fantasy QB1. In his first start ever. 228 passing yards and 40 yards rushing on 10 carries. One passing and one rushing touchdown. Sounds like he is fine after taking a big hit, toward the end of the game that prevented him from scoring another rushing touchdown.
Michael Pittman Jr. posted good stats – 8 catches, 11 targets, 97 yards and 28% target share – but a large portion came from a 39-yard-long catch-and-run TD, making him a sell-high candidate in my estimation. The Anthony Richardson lumps as a passer is going to make Pittman inconsistent. Case in point, he had zero catches in the first half. One target.
Early in the game, it was the rookie Josh Downs connection with Richardson. 3 for 30 on 4 targets in the first half.
Deon Jackson played 71% of the snaps as the starter but sucked. 13 carries for 14 yards with a fumble. Woof. 5 catches for 14 yards. Jackson totaled 18 touches for a grand total of 28 yards.
Add Zack Moss off waivers. Can’t imagine they run back Jackson if Moss is healthy.
And this could be a sign of things to come for a potentially tough Jaguars defensive line to be a matchup to avoid.
Minnesota Vikings
Sell Alexander Mattison
Minnesota’s loss to the Buccaneers seemed fitting. They were the most overrated team last year and got straight up served in Week 1. Alexander Mattison had an underwhelming performance with 11 carries for 34 yards but salvaged it with a receiving TD.
Out-touched Ty Chandler 14 to 4 with a 73% snap share. Still Chandler looked explosive on his 18-yard catch and run. Mattison totaled just 10 yards on 4 targets.
Sell high if you can. Gets the Eagles run defense Thursday night. You don’t want that.
Especially with the Vikings dealing with multiple offensive line injuries. After center Garrett Bradbury came out Week 1 with a back injury and was later ruled out, star left tackle Christian Darrisaw also left the game. Not ideal for a short week. The Buccaneers’ defense terrorized Kirk Cousins. Going to be the same story in Week 2 versus Philly.
K.J. Osborn played over Jordan Addison (91% snaps versus 56%) but the rookie’s impact was felt greatly. Earned the same number of targets (6) catching four for 61 yards and 1 TD. 24% air yards share and 66% route participation. The rookie’s snaps can only go up.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buy Rachaad White
Rachaad White‘s stats weren’t impressive, but he had a solid workload. 17 for 39 rushing, 2 for 10 receiving yards. 19 touches are still solid in his season debut with a whopping 79% snap share. 55% route participation. No. 2 RB Sean Tucker had 7 and was equally inefficient. Buccaneers have OL issues. But I was very shocked at White’s lack of targets (2). Something to monitor. I’d buy low with the Bears’ horrible defense coming up next. 6th on the week among RBs in snap share and 11th in touches.
WR Mike Evans had a boom game with 6 receptions for 66 yards and 1 28-yard TD on 10 targets. Sell high on these boom-or-bust WRs after they boom. He won’t see a 50% air yards share every single week.
Chris Godwin posted 5 receptions for 51 yards on 6 targets. Caught the game-clinching first down for the Buccaneers to ice the game.
Tight end Cade Otton played 97% of the snaps. That’s a very rare usage for a tight end. Expect more than 3 targets in the coming weeks with that type of usage.
Tennessee Titans
Sell Derrick Henry
The Titans had a disappointing game for fantasy, with Ryan Tannehill struggling – three picks, 3 sacks and 198 passing yards – behind an overmatched OL, and DeAndre Hopkins being the lone standout. DHop went 7 for 65 on a team-high 13 targets (39% target share).
Can’t start any other Titans WR/TE besides him. Treylon Burks was a full-time player (90% route participation) and earned 3 targets (mostly at the start of the second half).
Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo saw solid usage as well – 75% route participation – but Tannehill only had eyes for Hopkins. The second-year TE only saw two targets, but Tannehill missed him big time in on a pseudo flea-flicker that could have EASILY gone for 6. YHTSI.
Running back Derrick Henry rushed for 63 yards on 15 carries, Tyjae Spears totaled 27 yards on just three carries.
It’s interesting because Spears was also more involved as a receiver of 4 targets with double the routes, but Henry was at least efficient after the catch 2 for 56 on 3 targets. But the rookie out-snapped Henry 54% vs 48% overall. The last time Henry saw a sub-50% snap share, was in Week 2 41-7 loss last season to the Bills.
I don’t suggest this means Henry’s carry totals are going away, but Spears threatening Henry as receiver and a rusher in any capacity is going to hurt the Big Dog’s bottom-line fantasy value. And the way that Henry performs – needs more and more carries to destroy teams in second halves of games – any rushes he is not getting is a major red flag.
I don’t think Spears is taking over the backfield. But his presence is going to hurt Henry, whose fantasy value was already in limbo behind one of the league’s worst OLs. That was also the last time Henry saw fewer than 16 carries in a game. Spears’ overall touch volume has room to grow because he only touched the ball four times with a heavy snap rate. Flexed out a lot as a receiver.
New Orleans Saints
Buy Jamaal Williams
Jamaal Williams had a volume-based RB1 role. 18 carries and 2 catches for 53 yards. Woof. Volume-based fantasy RB2 that completely face-planted with a 75% snap share and 20 overall touches. The Titans’ run defense was a unit to avoid all last season, and they looked the part in Week 1. For Williams, he should benefit from a real easy matchup in Week 2 versus the Panthers. Acquire him for dirt cheap as a one-week rental.
Chris Olave led the team with 10 targets (8-112, 30%) followed by Michael Thomas (8, 24%) and Rashid Shaheed (6, 18%). Olave was also the air yards share leader (34%, 129 air yards), while MT led the Saints in routes run (89% route participation). MT also saw two targets inside the 10-yard line.
Juwan Johnson didn’t do much in the stat sheet but ran a healthy number of routes (84% route participation). Three for 36 on 5 targets will be his weekly floor with that deployment.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Add Calvin Austin
Betting the Steelers ML…they said it would be fun. Definitely one of my biggest misses in Week 1. Alas, we live and learn. The entire Steelers offense wasn’t good enough.
Running back Najee Harris went 6 for 31. I proposed whether or not Harris’ fantasy value would increase/decrease after he played SF in Week 1? We know where it stands. Jaylen Warren out-targeted him 6 to 2 with a 40% snap share to Harris’ 52%.
WR Allen Robinson led the team with 8 targets – 5 for 64 – after Diontae Johnson got hurt. George Pickens was second with 7 targets (26% air yards share) – including a dope one-hander that he was ruled out of bounds. A-Rob and Pickens played full-time roles (89% snap share) running a route on almost every Kenny Pickett dropback.
Second-year WR Calvin Austin went 6-for-6 and would likely see a big playing boost if DJ misses time. His route participation settled at 50%. He was involved early on.
In addition to Johnson’s injury, Pat Freiermuth also got banged up. Played just 51% of the snaps. Scored on his one catch (4 targets). Kenny Pickett led all QB with 11 throws in the red zone, but he completed just five for 18 yards and 1 score.
Not optimistic about this receiving unit sans Johnson versus a Browns defense that put the clamps on the Bengals WRs in Week 1.
San Francisco 49ers
Buy Deebo Samuel
RB Christian McCaffery showed why he was the RB1. 22 for 152 on the ground. Added 5 targets. 85% snap share in a blowout. Elijah Mitchell who? 5 touches, that’s who.
And WR Brandon Aiyuk showed why he was the best value among the 49ers’ three top pass-catchers. A perfect 8-for-8 with 129 yards and two scores. Dusted Patrick Peterson (might be dust) for both of his scores. Aiyuk even ran fewer routes than Deebo Samuel, but still was more productive. 29% target share and dominant 47% air yards share.
Brock Purdy only throws for 2-plus TDs…excluding the NFC Championship game, Purdy has thrown 2-plus scores in his last 8 starts. Flame emoji.
Deebo finished with 5 catches for 55 yards on 7 targets. Although Aiyuk stole the show, Samuel still had a solid game. 25% target share. 32% air yards share. 97% route participation. Running the most routes on the 49ers. I think Samuel is a savvy buy-low with all the shine on Aiyuk.
Tight end George Kittle: 3 for 19. Bust. He’s the real loser. Route participation was solid (76%), but he fell to 3rd in targets like last season when everyone else was healthy. Six targets aren’t enough if he isn’t scoring.
Washington Commanders
Sell Brian Robinson, Buy Jahan Dotson
RB Brian Robinson is an easy sell-high. 19 carries for 59 yards and scored a receiving TD on one of his two targets (61% snap share). I don’t think he’s losing the job anytime soon – Antonio Gibson fumbled and had 4 touches total – but owning a one-dimensional back on a team that could barely beat the Cardinals; not hard to see how this ends badly.
Tight end Logan Thomas was the no.1 target (8 targets) posting a 4 for 43 stat line, followed by second-year WR Jahan Dotson (7 targets) who went 5 for 40 receiving yards. Dotson led the team in routes run (95% route participation) and air yards share (30%).
LT picked up the elite tight-end role we were hoping for, running a route on 32 of 42 dropbacks (76%). Also played 82% of the offensive snaps.
Curtis Samuel led the team in receiving yards (54) with five catches on a 65% snap rate.
Terry McLaurin played a full complement of snaps, but he was not featured nor efficient. Playing time was not limited by his turf toe injury, but he had just two catches for 31 yards on four targets. Brutal matchup in Week 2 where he will likely draw coverage from Patrick Surtain II. Woof. Sell McLaurin and buy Dotson after a quiet Week 1. WR1 Alpha usage.
Arizona Cardinals
Avoid Zach Ertz
RB James Conner was a workhorse – 19 touches for 67 yards – but no TDs. His backup totaled negative yardage. He will continue to be a “volume is king” play after he finished second among ALL RBs in Week 1 with an 84% snap share.
Quarterback Josh Dobbs‘ favorite target was not Marquise Brown or Michael Wilson. Instead, it was tight end Zach Ertz off a torn ACL, who was peppered with 10 targets (33% target share). Bruh. 6 catches for 21 yards. Maybe this isn’t the best way to move the ball on offense.
Also, very surprised to see him play so clearly ahead of second-year tight end, Trey McBride. Doubled his snaps and routes run. McBride totaled more yards (23) on just two catches.
Ertz ran a route on all but three of Dobb’s dropbacks (91%) and was a heavy favorite in the red zone. I’d let somebody chase the Ertz targets off waivers. He needs that much volume to do anything in fantasy.
Brown/Wilson also ran the same number of routes as the other two starters. Wilson led the team with 64 air yards (33%).
Green Bay Packers
Add Luke Musgrave
The Packers dominated, but Aaron Jones injured his hamstring on one of his long receptions. Before the injury, he was heavily involved and looked very explosive. No. 2 RB A.J. Dillon struggled with efficiency in relief, with just 19 yards on 13 carries. Although the numbers are a bit misleading as he was stuffed from inside the 1o-yard line on three different rushing attempts. A couple of times he was left in no man’s land, so I wouldn’t say his game was as bad as the numbers suggest.
Without No. 1 WR Christian Watson, it was a flat target rate between the remaining Packers WRs/TEs. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs each saw 5 targets (19%), tight end Luke Musgrave had 4. Doubs scored twice, while Reed went just 2 for 48 and Musgrave 3 for 50. Reed only played 53% of the snaps but exited late with an injury. He and Doubs each earned a 66% route participation. But the rookie slot WR led with a 34% air yards share.
Musgrave continued his full-time role, playing 75% of the snaps and leading the team in routes run with Jordan Love under center (77% route participation). Love hit him deep after a botched snap, that could have easily resulted in a TD had Love not rushed the throw.
I don’t think when Watson returns from his hamstring injury, he will necessarily step into a massive target share as Love has shown a tendency to spread wealth among his top pass-catchers.
Chicago Bears
Buy D.J. Moore
No. 1 starting RB Khalil Herbert only had nine carries for 27 yards playing 36% of the snaps. He totaled 3 catches for 37 through the air with 5 targets. Don’t be fooled by rookie Roschon Johnson‘s score as it came late in the game. He didn’t play till the 3rd quarter and was behind D’Onta Foreman in the RB hierarchy. Although encouraging he got involved with 7 targets (most of which came in garbage time).
The biggest surprise though for the Bears in Week 2? D.J. Moore. TWO TARGETS (and one on a two-point conversion). Despite a 92% snap share and 94% route participation. Might have been the Jaire Alexander treatment but you trade for this guy and don’t target him? Man. Must expect a squeaky wheel game coming soon. Works in Chicago’s favor they have a Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary in Week 2. Moore has faced them many times in the past. The last time he faced them, Moore blew up for 117 yards on 6 catches and 1 TD on 10 targets.
Buy low on D.J. Moore.
With Moore not involved in Week 1, Darnell Mooney led the team with 7 targets and air yards (57 air yards, 51%). 4 for 53 yards and 1 TD. Tight end Cole Kmet also earned 7 targets (19% target share).
On the Bears offense as a whole, they were relying way too heavily on just RB targets and rushes by Justin Fields. Still, the Bears QB attempted 37 passes and completed 24 passes for 216 passing yards. 37 attempts was more than any game he had ALL last season. The fact that the passing volume -accompanied by a bad defense – will lead to much better days for Chicago’s No. 1 WR.
Although Chicago lost handily, the game was closer in the first half before a few big plays and a pick-six buried the Bears in the second half. As did GB going a perfect 3-for-3 in the red zone. The Bears had more yards in the 1st half down 10-6. I think there might be some value in backing Chicago at +3.0 after they initially opened as 1.5-point favorites playing at Tampa Bay.
Denver Broncos
Sell Broncos backfield
Sean Payton will fix everything. Sure. Okay. A home loss to the Raiders’ dumpster franchise in Week 1. Not a great start. Russell Wilson was okay, tossing 2 TDs with an average 5.2 yards per attempt. A lot of RB targets (38% target share). Too much if you ask me.
Starting running back Javonte Williams saw heavy usage with 13 carries for 52 yards (45% snap share). His 6 targets led the team (19% target share). 5 catches. No. 2 RB Samaje Perine finished 4 for 4 as receiver for 37 yards (13% target share) and led the backfield in routes. Added 8 carries for 41 yards while also playing 45% of the snaps. A sick…50/50 committee in a subpar offense. Woof. Get away from the Broncos backfield. Tough matchup in Week 2 versus a firey Commanders defensive line.
No sign of Jaleel McLaughlin (8% snap share). PAYTON YOU LIAR. Oh, wait, 1 catch for -7 yards. Cool? Cool.
Greg Dulcich went 2 for 22 yards while getting hurt. Worse production than Adam Trautman because Dulcich is TE2. Trautman doubled Dulcich’s routes and saw 5 targets, tied with Courtland Sutton for 2nd-most on the team. Sutton finally scored TD, but finished with just 4 catches for 32 yards. He also led the team in routes (86%) and with a whopping 38 air yards. Wilson missed him deep in the end zone after he put rookie cornerback Jakorian Bennett through the spin cycle.
This team NEEDs Jerry Jeudy or someone else to step up. Rookie Marvin Mims was held to just 2 catches for 9 yards on 2 targets because he was buried on the depth chart…why? Lil ‘Jordan Humphrey and Brandon Johnson played ahead of him. Mims ran just 10 routes and played 27% of the snaps. You can’t start Mims until his playing time increases, so he’s at least two weeks away from sniffing starting lineups. That puts him on the chopping block if you need to make a roster move.
Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs earned 19 for 20 RB carries for 48 yards. Added 2 catches for 23 yards. Back to Bellcow usage with an 80% snap share. No other Raiders RB had more than 2 touches. Same old same old for Jacobs. Ran poor on TDs getting stuffed on his five carries from inside the 5-yard line. Expect better TD regression versus Buffalo’s defense that got exposed in the run defense on Monday night. Third-worst in expected points added in run defense in Week 1.
Jakobi Meyers was the Raiders leading WR – 9 for 81 and 2 TDs. Remember when he couldn’t score? Hoping he’s okay after he took a big hit toward the end of the game. His status is in question for Week 1 after he was placed in the concussion protocol. It’s really a shame because he was balling out. Denver couldn’t cover him with No. 2 cornerback, Damarri Mathis.
If he were to miss, it’s anybody’s guess who is next in line. Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t target any other WRs except DeAndre Carter (1). Hunter Renfrow and Kristian Wilkerson rotated snaps. Renfrow is the most decorated so he would be the next man up, but I am not sure his actual playing time will increase because he was only playing from the slot in 3WR sets. Wilkerson might actually fill the “Meyers role” as he lined up primarily out wide (similar to Meyers).
But it’s more likely that we just see a million targets for Adams when they take on Buffalo in Week 2. And don’t underestimate Garoppolo. When he is healthy, he’s actually pretty good. The issue is he gets banged up and misses games.
I don’t think Meyers’ 10 targets are a sign he is taking over for Davante Adams, who still had 9 targets catching 6 for 66 yards. Patrick Surtain II was matched up with Adams a lot and likely forced Jimmy G to look elsewhere. That’s something to monitor when teams face the Broncos you might want the WR2s…Commanders up next. So could be another strong day for Jahan Dotson if Terry McLaurin gets the bad matchup versus Surtain.
Miami Dolphins
Sell Raheem Mostert
Tyreek Hill had a spectacular game, dominating with 11 receptions, 215 yards, and 2 TDs (34% target share, 45% air yards share). Hill tripled Jaylen Waddle‘s targets (5) despite both running a route on just 30 of 41 Tua Tagovailoa‘s dropbacks. 73%. The ex-Chiefs WR only played 66% of the snaps.
Tagovailoa had an impressive passing performance with 3 TDs and over 400 yards passing. Tight end Durham Smythe saw surprising involvement playing 100% of the team’s snaps on offense. Smythe – who has been seeing sneaky usage during the preseason – comes out with 7 targets (16%). Keep tabs on him.
RB Raheem Mostert scored on one of his 10 carries for 37 yards. Caught two passes. The team doesn’t seem overly convinced to get their RBs involved. Cannot blame them. Tyreek is open down there somewhere! But rest assured the RB getting work will be Mostert after he played 73% of the snaps to Salvon Ahmed‘s 28% snap rate. I would sell Mostert though given his long injury track record and De’Von Achane returning from injury soon.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler totaled 16 carries for 117 yards and 1 TD (21 touches). But shockingly…No. 2 RB Joshua Kelley also totaled 16 carries for 91 yards and 1 TD (17 touches). Ekeler played a 51% snap share to Kelley’s 48%.
Ekeler played fewer than 51% of the snaps just thrice last year. Only twice in 2021. He’s apparently dealing with an injury that had him limping around on Sunday.
Still, the Chargers ran WILD ALL over the Dolphins defense.
Considering this was the first game in the Kellen Moore era, I would expect the dual RB usage to continue. Ekeler will still see the majority of receiving work (5 targets, 16%) but will lose out on base touches to Kelley moving forward.
Kelley is a must-add off waivers this week, given the Ekeler injury news.
Keenan Allen was the clear-cut WR1 – 9 targets, 6 catches for 76 yards on a 91% snap share (29% target share, 45% air yards share).
No. 2 WR Mike Williams missed some time with an injury but still finished with 5 targets, hauling in four for 45 yards. He and No. 3 WR Joshua Palmer each ran a route on 74% of dropbacks.
Say it ain’t so Gerald Everett. The thesis behind Everett this draft season was TD upside and a full-time role in the Chargers new offense. We got neither. He ran a route on just 59% of dropbacks, splitting time with Donald Parham Jr. – 68% vs 49% snap shares – who scored on the same target volume. Woof. Hard to trust Everett if he is just doing the same thing as last year, with added healthy WR competition.
New England Patriots
Add Kendrick Bourne, Buy Rhamondre Stevenson
Watched this one very closely (Homer I know). The Patriots offense looked horrible to start when the weather was worse. But once they started going to more passes over the middle with the tight ends and WR Kendrick Bourne, they started moving the ball effectively versus the Eagles.
Kendrick Bourne without DeVante Parker active (shockingly he was not available) led the team with 11 targets. 6 catches for 64 and 2 TDs. He officially played 91% of the snaps on offense and ran a route on 93% of dropbacks. His highest snap rate last season? 76%. The 91% rate was the highest he has ever had as a Patriot since he joined the team in 2021.
Go figure when Bourne plays Mac Jones throws for 300-plus yards and 3 TDs…because Bourne has always been super productive when used in the Patriots’ offense. Many will scoff at the idea of Bourne being the Patriots WR1 this year. But he is just one year removed from a WR30 overall finish during Jones’ rookie year. He caught 83% of his targets (2nd) and finished 14th overall in yards per route run (2.01). And even when he was in the doghouse last season, he was productive again when played.
Don’t overlook the fact that he stepped up BIG when the Patriots needed a spark on offense. Besides, who else will they turn to? After all, the target share behind Bourne was weird, to say the least.
Rhamondre Stevenson earned 6 targets as the team’s leader in receiving yards with Bourne (64 receiving yards).
But dear lord they kept forcing passes to Ezekiel Elliott (5 catches for 12 yards on 7 targets) even after he fumbled. JuJu Smith-Schuster and rookie Demario Douglas each also had 7 targets on 27 routes run (46%).
The only issue is that Kayshon Boutte actually played ahead of BOTH of those players with four targets of his own (69% snap share). The issue with the rookie was he failed to get both his feet down on a couple of sideline targets, typical of a first-year WR. Still, his route participation in first game (74%) suggests the coaches want him out there, so stash Boutte in deeper formats.
Both RBs were horrible on the ground as the Eagles’ DL overmatched the Pats’ OL. The Patriots also couldn’t run effectively being down 16-0 from the get-go.
So given it all, Stevenson coming out with 18 touches and nearly 90 yards with a 72% snap share is a win. Because during the game it didn’t seem like that at all.
And like the difference between a Stevenson target (10.6 ypt) and a Zeke target (2.0 ypt) …has me convinced these Elliott targets are not here for the long run. Stevenson doubled his routes. No way Elliott will continue to be targeted at a near 40% per route run basis.
Buy low on Stevenson amid the Elliott interference with a JUICY matchup on deck versus a Miami Dolphins horrible run defense.
Hunter Henry remains Jones’ favorite red-zone target, catching a TD on Sunday. He also ran a route on 74% of dropbacks, playing well ahead of Mike Gesicki (41% snap share).
Philadelphia Eagles
Add Kenneth Gainwell, Buy Dallas Goedert
Kenneth Gainwell started as the Eagles’ RB1 and had a productive game. 14 carries for 54 yards and four targets for 20 yards (caught all of them, 13% target share) with a 62% snap share. 18 touches in Week 1 versus D’Andre Swift (2 touches) and Boston Scott (2 touches) is damn convincing of who this team trusts to lead their backfield.
Especially considering Rachaad Penny was an outright healthy scratch…
Note that Gainwell is dealing with a rib injury, so keep tabs on his status for Thursday.
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith each saw 10 targets (33% target share). Smith (97%) ran two more routes than Brown (92%). Smith scored and Brown got more yardage and more air yards (59%).
But Dallas Goedert‘s lack of targets shouldn’t raise concerns. Now if you remember, something weird like this happened last year for the Eagles, when DeVonta Smith goose-egged. Do not overact.
Given the current landscape of tight end, I’d look to acquire DG on the cheap for a manager potentially panicked. After the game head coach Nick Siranni said, We can’t go a game without getting Dallas Goedert the football. He’s too good of a playmaker.”
What he said about Smith after Week 1 last year…” he has to touch the ball. We must. “Thursday night bounce back versus the Vikings? Lock it in.
Goedert played 92% of the snaps and ran a route on 36 of 38 Jalen Hurts‘ dropbacks. The targets will come.
Los Angeles Rams
Add and Sell Kyren Williams, Buy Puka Nacua, Sell Cam Akers
Second-year RB Kyren Williams was playing well ahead of Cam Akers in the first half. Williams also scored two rushing TDs and carried the ball 15 times for 52 yards (3.5 ypc). Finished with 5 red-zone carries to Akers’ 2 red-zone carries.
Meanwhile, Akers earned a whopping 22 carries for 29 yards. Woof. Wasn’t all his fault as he was consistently left out to dry by the Rams’ sub-par offensive line.
But he scored. And the big carry totals look nice. But let’s be real here. It’s not nice. Akers had four carries in the first half to Williams’ 8. Overall, he got out-snapped 65% to 35%.
Williams got 2 targets to Akers’ none. Akers ran four routes to Williams’ 29. If Akers is just an early-down grinder with zero pass-game involvement – also with split touches in the red zone – his path to weekly failure is going to remain high.
Sean McVay comes and goes with his player usage, but his hot/cold affair with Akers is BEYOND frustrating. I’d cash out after he posted 20-plus carries and scored on a 4th down rush.
The only reason I’d buy is if someone is willing to sell for next to nothing (like me) because McVay has flipped the script on us before with Akers/Williams. Akers went from a 30% snap share to a 72% snap share last year, while Williams went from 70% to 28% for no apparent reason. But it’s still so risky, especially with the 49ers elite run defense up next. Get out now.
And that holds true for both Rams RBs, including Williams. If I acquire him on waivers, I am immediately trying to trade him for fear the Rams’ backfield flip-flops again. Chances are it will. Because Akers seeing 22 carries and a key 4th-down rush suggests he is still going to be involved, but his week-week involvement with be volatile based on the game script and how McVay feels. Just a massive headache. Again, we went through all of this same backfield BS last year…when Darrell Henderson Jr. opened with a massive snap share.
However, I would not do the same with Puka Nacua. The 5th-round rookie WR saw….15 targets in Week 1 (41% target share, 35% air yards share). I couldn’t believe it. Discount Deebo…was getting FED. And was productive with his opportunities. 10 catches for 119 yards. Is he just in the Cooper Kupp role now? Or have he and Tutu Atwel (6 for 119 on 8 targets, 22% target share) just combined to match Kupp’s weekly production?
Atwell saw heavy involvement, specifically in the second half when the Rams started to be more effective on offense. After just one catch in the first 30 minutes, Atwell totaled 5 catches for 108 yards on 7 targets.
Madness.
Back to Nacua. Garrett Wilson was the only rookie WR last season to post 15-plus targets in any game. Other notable names to accomplish the feat at age 22 include Brandon Aiyuk, Odell Beckham Jr., Darius Slayton. The one to do it earliest in their career (nobody else did it in Week 1 like Nacua) was Julio Jones in his fourth game as a pro. Nacua was super productive college WR and his main knock was just his level of competition faced at BYU. But through an entire training camp and one NFL game, it doesn’t seem he is at all phased by the level of competition. Would be overly aggressive to target him on waivers.
He, Atwell and Van Jefferson all ran a route on 89% of Matthew Stafford‘s dropbacks. Tyler Higbee was not far behind with an elite 84% route participation. The Rams tight end only got 3 targets, but totaled a decent 49 yards.
Seattle Seahawks
Sell DK Metcalf
The Seahawks had an underwhelming offensive performance, with DK Metcalf‘s TD as the highlight.
Metcalf operated as the true alpha, seizing a 21% target share and a whopping 62% air yards share. He Jaxon Smith-Njgba and Kenneth Walker all saw 5 targets. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett each also ran a route on 93% of dropbacks. JSN was behind at 66% playing just 59% of snaps. His target rate per route run is very strong (26%) and bolds well for him to vacuum up targets even while running fewer routes. He out-targeted Lockett, who caught two passes for ten yards.
KW3 played 63% of the snaps versus Zach Charbonnet‘s 24%. Walker totaled 16 touches while other Seattle RBs combined for 6. He also led the backfield in routes. Encouraging that he was involved more as a receiver in Week 1.
Seattle also lost both starting offensive tackles, between Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. Very problematic for an offense after a bad Week 1.
They scored on the first three drives and then missed an FG. It went ALL downhill after that. 4 straight punts. 2-9 on third downs. 180 yards of offense to the Rams’ 426. The Rams DOMINATED the time of possession. Nearly doubled 40 vs. 20 mins. Game over.
If things get off the rails for Geno – and he turns back into a pumpkin – might be wise to sell shares of Metcalf off the TD score.
New York Giants
Buy Darren Waller
It’s difficult to have too many actionable takeaways in a game that was over before it started. Daniel Jones was sacked 7 times and threw for just 104 yards versus Big D. At least he added rushing totals (13-43) to salvage some fantasy production.
Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell and Isaiah Hodgins were the starters in the 3WR sets. Campbell led the team in routes run, followed by Slayton. Hodgins was a distant third.
Running back Saquon Barkley played 64% of the snaps, totaling 16 opportunities. Other Giants RBs combined for 4 backfield opportunities. After a prime-time blowout, I’d buy low on Barkley. He’s still one of the few bellcow backs we have in the NFL.
Tight end Darren Waller only played 54% of the snaps, but was heavily targeted (5 targets, 17% target share). He ended with 3 catches for 36 yards. Although he did only run a route on 53% of the team dropbacks. He entered the game with a hamstring injury. Like Barkley, Waller is also a buy-low. The biggest concern was his health (hamstring) and he did not reaggravate the injury. Also posted a 22% target rate per route run.
Dallas Cowboys
Again, a blowout win doesn’t tell us a whole lot about Dallas’ offense besides confirming the obvious. Tony Pollard was a clear-cut RB1 with a 64% snap share and 17 RB opportunities. 14 carries for 70 yards and 2 TDs. Added 2 catches for 12 yards. Six carries inside the 10-yard line. Nobody is taking his high-value touches.
Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn split time as his backup.
Jake Ferguson led the Cowboys in target share (28%, 7 targets) but he only caught 2 passes for 11 yards. The tight end played 72% of the snaps and ran a route on just 54% of dropbacks. Not great usage, which suggests that his 7 targets might not be sustainable. Especially given he was not efficient. Still split routes run with No. 2 TE, Peyton Hendershot (48% snap share). Still, he has TD upside as four of his targets came in the red zone (three inside the 10-yard line).
WR Brandin Cooks was the team’s air yards leader. Also tied CeeDee Lamb with four targets. Cooks also ran more routes than Michael Gallup cementing his status as a WR2. Cooks ran a route on 79% of Dak Prescott‘s dropbacks.
Buffalo Bills
Buy Gabe Davis
Buffalo losing to an Aaron Rodgers-less Jets team. Josh Allen was a turnover machine, tossing three interceptions against the vaunted Jets defense. Still, Stefon Diggs operated as his alpha WR.
13 targets, 10 receptions for 102 yards and 1 TD (33% target share, 43% air yards share).
Second on the team in targets was RB James Cook (15% target share) while running a route on 50% of the dropbacks. The second-year RB caught 4-of-6 targets for 17 yards while playing 59% of the snaps. Cook also carried the ball 12 times for 46 yards. Damien Harris and Latavius Murray combined for 3 carries and 11 rushing yards. 3 receptions for 25 yards. Murray actually played more snaps than Harris (23% vs 13%). You can probably cut ties with Harris with him sharing RB2 duties with Murray.
After the top two guys, it was a flat target rate between the remaining starters. Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox and Deonte Harty all saw four targets. Davis ran the most routes but struggled in a tough matchup (2 for 32 on a 94% snap share). Harty was hyper-targeted when he played as he ran just 13 routes (22% snap share). 31% target rate per route run.
Davis is a cheap buy-low target with his boom-or-bust profile. Horrible matchup in Week 1 versus the Jets. Great matchup in Week 2 versus the Raiders.
The tight ends both ran a ton of routes, each cresting a 76%-plus route participation. The heavy 12 personnel suggests both guys can be productive running this many routes, with the rookie the smart long-term bet. Kincaid was the primary underneath option (2% air yard share) catching all four of his targets for 26 yards (21 yards after the catch). He also played 80% of the snaps in his rookie debut.
New York Jets
Buy Breece Hall
Breece Hall is back baby! Despite playing just 31% of the snaps (17), the Jets second-year RB drew the start and totaled 127 rushing yards on 10 carries. The majority of his yards came 83-yard scamper that Hall ripped off from the 4-yard line.
In the second half, he went just 8 for 18 as a rusher (Dalvin Cook went 8 for 17). Cook ended up playing 50% of the offensive snaps, ending the night with a team-high 13 carries for just 33 yards. Cook also added three catches for 26 yards on 3 targets, to Hall’s one catch for 20 yards on 2 targets.
So although the usage gap was in favor of Cook in Week 1, I’d bet the usage works more in Hall’s favor as we progress. That would make Hall a buy-low in fantasy football leagues in the wake of the Aaron Rodgers injury. Worth noting that Michael Carter was also somewhat involved – 2 targets, 1 carry, and 22% snap share – which likely won’t be the case later in the year.
Speaking of which, Rodgers left the game immediately after one of the first plays. It’s been reported to be an Achilles injury, and the expectations are not good. Zach Wilson came in relief and…was Zach Wilson.
14 of 21 for 140 yards and 1 TD to Garrett Wilson. Wilson saved his fantasy owners with a great TD grab on one of his five targets. He finished with just five grabs for 34 yards with a 28% target share (5 targets). Wilson and Allen Lazard both ran a route on 100% of the Jets QB dropbacks. Wilson also played 93% of the snaps. Lazard was the leading receiver with 46 yards on 2 catches (4 targets).
Randall Cobb was the WR3 with a 41% snap share. Mecole Hardman played one snap on special teams. Woof.
Tyler Conklin played 80% of the snaps and ran a route on 73% of dropbacks. Awesome usage. One target. Bummer.
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