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NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 3 (2023 Fantasy Football)

NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 3 (2023 Fantasy Football)

It’s been an insanely successful two weeks of DFS for me, and getting the jump on the week really tends to help. We had three primetime games after the main slate, and DFS pricing is often slow to catch up. Let’s see what we can come up with to get an early start, and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @jac3600.

NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 3

QUARTERBACK

Jared Goff (QB – DET), ($6500) vs ATL

“Jared Goff at home” is a completely different animal than “Jared Goff on the road,” and we saw that on full display last week against the Seahawks. Last season, Goff’s QBR was almost 25 points higher at home than it was on the road, and the small 2023 sample size backs that up (121.8 vs 94.1). The Lions also averaged over 30 PPG at home last year, and Atlanta does not have an imposing secondary. Goff’s price is rising, but not fast enough.

C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU), ($5300) @ JAX

C.J. Stroud is priced like a rookie, and there will definitely be some “rookie tendencies” in his play. However, $5300 seems like a very reasonable price tag for a guy who has thrown 91 passes already through the first two weeks. He’s not only on pace for over 700 attempts in his rookie season, but he’s also yet to throw an interception with this volume. Stroud seems to have a legit WR1 in Nico Collins, and Jacksonville has allowed the fourth most FPPG to QBs thus far.

RUNNING BACK

Jerome Ford (RB – CLE), ($4800) vs TEN

As unbelievable as it seems, this is now the third week in a row where we’ve had a cheap RB thrust into a mega chalk situation, yet will face the top rush D in the Titans. In Week 1, it was Jamaal Williams; last week, it was Joshua Kelley. Both RBs busted but were acceptable bad chalk in cash at high ownership percentages. This week should be no different. After the sickening injury to Nick Chubb last night, Jerome Ford should be thrust into at least a short-term lead role for the Browns, and $4800 is too cheap to fade in cash. I will likely be adopting the same strategy once against against Tennessee. Lock in Ford for cash contests, and full fade him in GPPs.

Joshua Kelley (RB – LAC), ($5400) @ MIN

Kelley was the recent victim of the stout Tennessee front, but he gets a much friendlier matchup against Minnesota this weekend. Coach Staley has indicated that there is “no timetable” for Austin Ekeler‘s return, so I’m tentatively expecting him to sit again. Kelley’s price only marginally rose after his dud against the Titans, and he should shoulder a heavy workload again.

WIDE RECEIVER

Amari Cooper (WR – CLE), ($5700) vs TEN

Amari Cooper’s price tag is utterly insane, and it’s largely due to the Browns playing Monday night and DraftKings not pricing him according to Chubb’s injury. Despite being listed as doubtful for a good portion of the week, Cooper not only played but also garnered a team-high ten targets (and going 7-90-0). Tennessee has allowed the third most FPPG to opposing WRs after being brutalized by them last year. Chubb’s injury should also force the Browns to be much more pass-heavy going forward.

Nico Collins (WR – HOU), ($5300) @ JAX

After Collins nuked this past weekend, some subscribers and I started speculating on what his price tag would be. We ultimately figured something in the low 6k range was appropriate, so imagine our surprise (and pleasure) when we find he’s not even at $5,500 yet. Collins has 20 targets and an aDOT of 17.1 through two games, and he LEADS THE NFL in air yards as well. Lock him into cash right now, and I’d even go overweight in GPP for the amount of times Houston is letting Stroud throw the ball.

TIGHT END

Zach Ertz (TE – ARI), ($3500) vs DAL

Zack Ertz’s price tag seems to be perpetually stuck at $ 3,500, making him an easy punt at the TE position this week. It’s difficult to get excited about anyone in the Arizona skillset positions. However, Ertz has been the safety blanket for Josh Dobbs thus far, amassing 18 targets through the first two weeks. He’s been inefficient with those targets, but at $ 3,500, you’re really only looking for volume and potential EZ looks.

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