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Another good week in the books for my value column. I hit on Geno Smith, Deebo Samuel, Kenneth Walker, and Nico Collins. I did have some misses, of course, but none more frustrating than Zay Jones, who had two near touchdown catches where he just couldn’t get his feet down but ended up with a big fat zero in the box score. Let’s get to it…
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Russell Wilson (DEN) @ MIA $5,900
Wilson found some of his mojo last week, albeit in a losing effort and a long TD late to pad his stats. Nearly 31 DK points is what we expected of him last season with this team, and it was nice to see him do it in Week 2. The Dolphins rank fairly well against the pass through the first two weeks (13th DVOA), but I think some of that can be attributed to playing the Patriots last week. Wilson may not put up 30-plus again this week, but at $5,900, he doesn’t have to.
Others to Consider: Geno Smith (SEA) $5,700 | C.J. Stroud (HOU) $5,300
FanDuel
C.J. Stroud (HOU) vs. JAX $6,600
Stroud just dropped 384 yards on a good Colts defense and now has back-to-back games with 40-plus pass attempts. I don’t think that’s a winning formula in the NFL to have your rookie QB throw 40-plus times, but we love it in fantasy. The Jags are a good offense, despite their rough outing last week, and should be able to put up points, forcing the Texans to pass to keep up. I see 40-plus attempts incoming for Stroud for the third week in a row.
Others to Consider: Geno Smith (SEA) $7,200 | Russell Wilson (DEN) $7,400
Running Backs
DraftKings
Javonte Williams (DEN) @ MIA $5,500
The chalk this week will be Jerome Ford, and if you’re playing cash games, he is likely a must-play. However, I’m not so sold on him this week against what is the second-best run defense so far this season in the Titans (2nd DVOA). Instead, I’m doubling down on a guy I’ve been touting since the offseason. There are only three teams worse than the Dolphins’ run defense: the Rams, Panthers, and Texans, meaning Williams should be able to find some running room this week.
His game logs leave a lot to be desired, but his usage can’t be ignored. He had 19 opportunities in Week 1 and 15 last week, all while his most significant competition for touches, Samaje Perine, saw his opportunities drop from 12 in Week 1 to only five last week. That tells me that Williams is the man in this offense and should get the bulk of the work against a bad defense in Week 3
Others to Consider: Jerome Ford (CLE) $4,800 | Roschon Johnson (CHI) $4,700
FanDuel
Kendre Miller (NO) @ GB $4,600
We would have to get a clear definition of what his role will be with Jamaal Williams out, but I’m going to assume he will be the de facto starter — even if it is just for this week. I’m sure Taysom Hill will mix it, but Miller is a between-the-tackles type runner that is a more traditional back over the hybrid Hill. At $4,600 on FanDuel, if he gets a decent workload and falls into the endzone, he could be the best value on this slate.
Others to Consider: Jerome Ford (CLE) $5,600 | Dameon Pierce (HOU) $5,800
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Adam Thielen (CAR) @ SEA $3,900
This was gross putting Thielen’s name down here, but if you close your eyes and ignore the name, age, and injury history, it’s hard to argue with this pick. Thielen had nine targets last week as Byce Yound continually checked it down underneath to the veteran wide receiver. The potential that Andy Dalton starts this game does not change my pick here, as I think Dalton will do exactly the same thing.
Thielen is a floor play and does not have the ceiling for tournaments; I would avoid him there, but in a cash game, you could do worse.
Others to Consider: Nico Collins (HOU) $5,300 | Christian Kirk (JAX) $5,400 | Drake London (ATL) $5,000
FanDuel
Michael Thomas (NO) @ GB $5,800
Thomas has turned back the clock a little and has looked pretty good through the first two weeks. He has 17 targets, catching 12 for 116 yards so far this young season. No, they aren’t numbers to write home about, obviously, but solid production from a relatively cheap guy. I know the world thinks that Thomas is just a guy who runs slants all game, and he does make a living on the slant, but he’s still 6-foot-3 and a nice target in the red zone.
Others to Consider: Adam Thielen (CAR) $5,700 | Jahan Dotson (WAS) $5,800
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Taysom Hill (NO) @ GB $3,300
Injury and suspension to their top two running backs have left the Saints with Taysom Hill as one of their top options in the backfield. The Packers are middle of the pack against the run, but Taysom Hill can do so many things; it may not even be the running ability that helps him hit value. He might actually…wait for it…line up at tight end and catch passes, too. Playing Hill is risky, but one that could pay off handsomely. Short of the Saints naming him their starting running back before the game, Hill is a ceiling play only — I would never trust such little usage in a cash-game lineup.
Others to Consider: Cole Turner (WAS) vs. BUF
FanDuel
Sam LaPorta (DET) vs. ATL $5,200
Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable with turf toe, and Josh Reynolds is questionable with a groin. I’d expect at least one of them to be out, and maybe both. Either way, LaPorta is easily the best-receiving option behind those two and would see an uptick in his usage if either of them misses. The Falcons are not a good pass defense (20th DVOA), and LaPorta and Home Goff, as I call him, because he’s a much better QB at home, will take advantage of that.
Defenses
DraftKings
Indianapolis Colts $2,400 @ BAL
The Colts have been a solid fantasy defense through the first two weeks, and while the Ravens may be the best team they’ve faced this season, we all know Lamar Jackson will take sacks, he will fumble the football, and will force throws that could be intercepted. That, combined with the cheap price tag, makes the Colts my top-value defense this week.
FanDuel
Arizona Cardinals vs. DAL $3,100
This is another gross pick at defense, but we know Dak Prescott has a propensity to throw interceptions, and it would not shock me at all if this is a trap game for the Cowboys, who have played the easiest schedule through two weeks so far, and get another creampuff matchup here. Cowboys fans know as well as I do this is the type of game the Cowboys will lose.
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