The Bengals and Steelers jumpstart Saturday’s NFL doubleheader with a projected close, low-scoring AFC North battle. Even with the game’s low total, each team has a few intriguing options. The Bills and Chargers will close Sunday in a game with a double-digit spread. The heavily favored Bills are the most exciting source of DFS players on this two-game slate, but the Chargers also have a few nifty picks.
Week 16 Matchups
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: CIN -2.0
Over/Under: 37.0 Points
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals haven't abandoned their pass-first tendencies, with Jake Browning starting at quarterback. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Bengals have had a 62% situation-neutral pass rate. Additionally, they had a 69% situation-neutral pass rate in Browning's first NFL start in Week 12 against this week's opponent, the Steelers.
Ja'Marr Chase won't play this week, leaving Tee Higgins as the club's No. 1 wide receiver. He's had an underwhelming season by his standards. However, Higgins has posted 2-72-0 and 4-61-2 in the previous two games. According to The 33rd Team, he's aligned wide at a 66.1% rate this season. Unfortunately, the Steelers have allowed the fewest DraftKings (4.1) and FanDuel (3.5) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 12.
So, Higgins isn't a must-use player on this two-game slate. Still, he'll have some opportunities in the slot, and Zac Taylor could kick him inside more often without Chase. Additionally, Higgins can overcome a lousy matchup and a high ceiling that most players can't match on this slate.
Tyler Boyd has an 82.0% slot rate this season. The Steelers have allowed 14.9 DK and 11.4 FD points per game to slots since Week 12. It's not a great matchup for Boyd, but it's less imposing than Higgins's on the perimeter. The veteran slot should see an uptick in use without Chase.
Charlie Jones is only a contrarian GPP pick. It's nearly impossible to find a wholly overlooked player on a two-game slate, but Jones could come close. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Andrei Iosivas has run 30 routes versus only 10 for Jones since Week 12. The former has also had six receptions for 44 receiving yards and two touchdowns this season versus three for 16 and zero for the latter (Jones has a punt return touchdown).
Therefore, gamers are more likely to talk themselves into Iosivas than Jones. However, Jones was targeted on all three of his routes last week and five of 14 this year, and Iosivas was targeted on just two of 11 last week and 10 of 79 this year. The Bengals also had a higher opinion of Jones than Iosivas during the 2023 NFL Draft, selecting the former in the fourth round (pick 132) and the latter in the sixth round (pick 208).
Tanner Hudson has carved out a meaningful role in Cincinnati's offense as an ancillary pass-catching weapon. In his last four games, he's had 16 targets, 15 receptions, 123 receiving yards and one touchdown on 54 routes. The Bengals have rotated multiple tight ends, but Hudson has outproduced Drew Sample, Irv Smith and Mitchell Wilcox combined.
The matchup is tasty for Hudson this week. The Steelers have allowed the second-most DK (19.7) and FD (16.5) points per game to tight ends since Week 12.
Chase Brown is the cheapest viable running back on the slate. The rookie speedster has made the most of a change-of-pace role behind Joe Mixon. In the previous three games, he's toted the rock 24 times for 109 rushing yards and secured six receptions for 108 receiving yards and one touchdown.
The matchup is favorable for Brown in this contest. The Steelers are tied for the 12th-most DK (24.9) and tied for the 11th-most FD (21.6) points per game yielded to running backs since Week 12. In those games, running backs had 96 rushing yards per game, 4.2 yards per carry, 3.8 receptions per game and 40 receiving yards per game against Pittsburgh.
Steelers Analysis: The Steelers relieved Matt Canada of offensive coordinator duties after losing in Week 11. Pittsburgh's offense effectively gained 421 yards on offense against the Bengals in the first game without Canada on the coaching staff. They had a 48% situation-neutral rush rate against Cincinnati.
Najee Harris had 15 rush attempts for 99 yards and a touchdown. The third-year pro has crashed to Earth since. He's had 33 and 48 scrimmage yards in the last two weeks. Jaylen Warren had 13 rush attempts for 49 yards and three receptions for 13 yards against the Bengals in the first meeting. In the last four games, the second-year pro has had at least 40 scrimmage yards and reached at least 55 three times. Warren also had multiple receptions in three of his last four games.
The matchup is good for Pittsburgh's backfield. The Bengals have ceded 21.4 DK points per game, 17.9 FD points per game, 92 rushing yards per game, 4.4 yards per carry, 4.0 receptions per game and 25 receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 12.
George Pickens's lack of effort as a run-blocker was a topic of conversation this week. Despite this week's negative coverage, Pickens has big-play ability in a favorable matchup. Since Week 12, the second-year wideout has led the Steelers in routes (129) and receiving yards (210) on 15 receptions.
Pickens is inconsistent and has failed to reach 50 receiving yards in back-to-back games. Still, he's had at least three receptions in six straight and had three for 58 receiving yards against the Bengals in Week 12.
Pat Freiermuth is the most exciting selection from the Steelers. Tight ends have clowned the Bengals, scoring the most DK (22.2) and FD (17.3) points per game against them since Week 12. Freiermuth destroyed them in this season's first meeting, securing nine receptions for 120 receiving yards.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: BUF - 12.0
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Bills Analysis: The Bills blew the doors off the Cowboys last week and have the highest implied total by a wide margin on this two-game slate. Josh Allen didn't need to do much in last week's lopsided victory but still produced multiple touchdowns for the 13th consecutive contest.
Allen has averaged 252.9 passing yards per game and passed for 26 touchdowns. The dual-threat quarterback has also rushed for 28.4 yards per game and 11 touchdowns. Allen's arm and legs won't be needed late if the game goes according to the double-digit spread. However, it's likely he'd have had a hand in getting the Bills to a double-digit lead, lessening the concern about Buffalo taking the air out of the ball late.
This is a get-right spot for Stefon Diggs. Buffalo's No. 1 wideout has had fewer than 50 receiving yards in three of four games since Joe Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as the team's offensive coordinator. Nevertheless, Diggs has had a juicy 27.6% target share.
Diggs has been moved around the formation this season. He's aligned wide 58.5% of the time and in the slot at a 39.5% clip. Diggs has an average matchup when aligned wide against the Chargers and a tasty one when in the slot. The Chargers have coughed up the 10th-most DK (22.8) and the sixth-most FD (19.4) points per game to slots since Week 12.
James Cook, last week's hero for the Bills, is an outstanding selection again this week. Brady has been a godsend for the second-year pro's production. In Cook's past four games, he's averaged 17.0 rush attempts per game, 88.3 rushing yards per game, 4.0 receptions per game, 52.8 receiving yards per game and scored four touchdowns.
Cook should feast again this week in a Charmin-soft matchup. The Chargers have been steamrolled by running backs for the seventh-most DK (26.6) points per game, the eighth-most FD (22.3) points per game, 110 rushing yards per game, 4.5 yards per carry, 5.8 receptions per game and 43 receiving yards per game.
Chargers Analysis: As double-digit underdogs, the Chargers will likely be forced to pass early and often to keep up. As a result, Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston and Gerald Everett are reasonable selections. Johnston (32 routes), Palmer (30) and Everett (24) were the top three on the club in routes last week.
Palmer had the best day of the bunch, catching four passes for 113 yards and a touchdown. He did most of his damage on a 79-yard touchdown reception against a coverage bust. Johnston had three targets, two receptions, 23 yards and a touchdown. The rookie scored his touchdown on a target in the red zone late in last week's blowout loss. Still, the look in the red zone from Easton Stick was encouraging.
Everett was Stick's favorite passing game weapon. The veteran tight end had team-highs in targets (eight) and receptions (five) for 41 receiving yards last week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
