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10 Undervalued Dynasty Prospects to Draft (2024 Fantasy Baseball)

10 Undervalued Dynasty Prospects to Draft (2024 Fantasy Baseball)

My prospect rankings are based on fantasy value, not real-life value. Considering such, hitters generally weigh a bit heavier for me due to the injury risk and higher volatility of prospect pitchers. Proximity does matter in these rankings to an extent but is not the end-all, be-all. The main goal of these rankings is to provide the highest return on investment as of early February 2024.

I’m taking the biggest values or “sleepers” from my prospect rankings (starting outside of the top 100) against the consensus amongst prospect analysts on FantasyPros and we will dig in on five pitchers and five hitters I feel are undervalued in the market and are great buy lows. Anyone with a potential debut in 2024 will have an fScore attached.

If you are curious about the fScore ratings you can check out my fScore rankings and information.

10 Unheralded Dynasty Prospect Targets

NOTE: Rookie status is determined by 130 at-bats (ABs), or 50 innings pitched (IPs) at the major league level. I did opt to include foreign imports in this equation.

Tekoah Roby (SP – STL)

  • 2023 AA: 58 1/3 IP, 69 Ks, 15 BBs, 4.63 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
  • Age: 22
  • ETA: Late 2024
  • Tim’s Ranking: 47
  • Consensus Ranking: 105
  • fScores: 47 fPDurability, 119 fStuff, 107 fControl, 118 fERA
  • Comp: Jose Berrios

Tekoah Roby looks like a future No. 2 starter in the majors with four plus pitches, above-average command and a good head on his shoulders mixing his pitches in nicely. He likes to throw his 95 MPH heater up in the zone and then go back down low with the curve – his best pitch. Some of his value has been sapped due to a shoulder injury that may have led to him getting traded from the Rangers to the Cardinals in the first place, but he looked great with the Cardinals’ AA team despite a rougher Arizona Fall League.

Roby pitched to a 25.6% K-BB over 10 starts with the Rangers in AA pre-shoulder injury. After he was traded to the Cardinals he came back and pitched even better with a 43.2% K-BB rate and a near 20% swinging strike rate in a small sample size of 12 innings. The fScores love him and he was pitching ridiculously well but the big question with Roby is going to be if he can make it through the 2024 season healthy. If he does, there’s a good chance we see him start for the Cardinals in 2024 if the need arises.

Graham Pauley (3B/OF – SD)

  • 2023 A/A+/AA: .308/.393/.539, 23 HR, 22 SB
  • Age: 23
  • ETA: Late 2024
  • Tim’s Ranking: 72
  • Consensus Ranking: 109
  • fScores: 96 fContact, 100 fDiscipline, 89 fPower, 115 fSpeed, 54 fDurability
  • Comp: Anthony Rizzo, Zack Gelof mash-up

The Padres roster is so barren on depth that Graham Pauley has a shot at a good amount of playing time this year, either backing Manny Machado up at third if he isn’t fully healthy enough to play the field or playing in the outfield because Fernando Tatis Jr. is the only guy with game out there. Pauley has a good hit tool and is a good judge of the strike zone. He pushes toward doubles power more than high-end home run power but still should peak as a regular 20-25 homer corner guy who can add in 10-15 steals on the side.

Pauley also has the added benefit of being a guy who can play multiple positions, coming up playing second, third and the outfield. He had a killer year and a good Arizona Fall League, but as a guy without much pedigree, he’s still underrated even though he has a hit tool that should develop to be well above average. Pauley has a pretty high floor and is another guy with a good head on his shoulders. He’s a competitor who sees himself as a future All-Star.

Tyler Locklear (1B – SEA)

  • 2023 A+/AA: .288/.405/.502, 13 HR, 12 SB
  • Age: 22
  • ETA: Early 2025
  • Tim’s Ranking: 63
  • Consensus Ranking: 116
  • fScores: N/A
  • Comp: Mitch Haniger-ish with a righty Carlos Beltran stance

Tyler Locklear isn’t likely to come up in 2024 after missing a good chunk of 2023 with injuries and it’s easy to get blocked as a first baseman. The good thing is the only guys in front of Locklear on the major league depth chart are Ty France and Luke Raley, who both can play other positions and are not locked into the core of the roster. Hit tool, check. Power tool, check. Slight speed with improving plate skills, I’m in. Locklear is coming off an injury-shortened season so don’t take those counting stats for granted – he paces out as a 25-homer 15-steal guy in the future.

Ty Madden (SP – DET)

  • 2023 A+/AA: 122 2/3 IP, 133 Ks, 38 BBs, 3.01 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
  • Age: 24
  • ETA: Mid 2024
  • Tim’s Ranking: 84
  • Consensus Ranking: 120
  • fScores: 75 fPDurability, 110 fStuff, 97 fControl, 107 fERA
  • Comp: Good Jack Flaherty

Ty Madden has four quality pitches, including a fastball with a really nice rid he likes to burn guys with high in the zone, a killer slider that tunnels his fastball well and a curve that is best used down in the zone. The changeup is also solid against righties. Madden’s stock takes a little bit of a hit because he’s been blocked thrice over this offseason and is now looking like the No. 8 option in the rotation thanks to the unnecessary addition of Jack Flaherty (behind the current rotation, Casey Mize and Sawyer Gipson-Long). I still like what he brings to the table, however, and will take his skill over the next couple of guys who will probably get a little more run in the majors in 2024. I’m still betting he gets the call before Jackson Jobe and I think he could spec out as a nice No. 3 starter down the road for the Tigers.

Jakob Marsee (OF – SD)

  • 2023 A+/AA: .274/.413/.428, 16 HR, 46 SB
  • Age: 23
  • ETA: Early – Mid 2024
  • Tim’s Ranking: 43
  • Consensus Ranking: 122
  • fScores: 95 fContact, 140 fDiscipline, 80 fPower, 197 fSpeed, 54 fDurability
  • Comp: Ripped Christian Yelich with more air on the ball

Jakob Marsee is coming off an MVP season in the Arizona Fall League. As already mentioned, the Padres outfield looks pretty horrific right now. Marsee has a nice compact lefty swing with some reach and all-fields power and hits around the yard, which will allow him to beat the shift. The speed is legit and he could record several 15/30 seasons in his prime with stellar plate skills. Marsee should have a shot to break camp, at the least, and could be a breakout type this spring if he does. I’ve already slated him to be my Matt McLain of 2024.

Chase Hampton (SP – NYY)

  • 2023 A+/AA: 106 2/3 IP, 145 Ks, 37 BBs, 3.63 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
  • Age: 21
  • ETA: Mid-Late 2024
  • Tim’s Ranking: 51
  • Consensus Ranking: 125
  • fScores: 65 fPDurability, 103 fStuff, 98 fControl, 107 fERA
  • Comp: Kyle Bradish

The Yankees’ offseason trade for Juan Soto where they shipped out Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Randy Vasquez and Jhony Brito cleared out some room so that when the Yankees need a pitcher they are likely picking between Chase Hampton (the best), Clayton Beeter and Will Warren (older and more experienced). I’d expect Beeter and Warren to get the call over Hampton but Hampton has a better chance of sticking in the rotation.

Hampton has really good mechanics and all his pitches tunnel together very well, the curve is great and plays off his well-located fastball nicely. He has a pitch labeled as a cutter but it almost looks more like a hammer 12/6 slider than a cutter. Hampton doesn’t have the best stuff or pedigree but he does have consistency and the ability to control his stuff leading to a better overall outcome.

Victor Scott II (OF – STL)

  • 2023 A+/AA: .303/.369/.425, 9 HR, 94 SB
  • Age: 23
  • ETA: Mid 2024
  • Tim’s Ranking: 61
  • Consensus Ranking: 128
  • fScores: 96 fContact, 84 fDiscipline, 69 fPower, 269 fSpeed, 72 fDurability
  • Comp: Esteury Ruiz with more power and a better glove

Victor Scott II is the center fielder of the future for the Cardinals. The Cardinals’ ability to pull off a trade to clear out one of Tommy Edman or Dylan Carlson for pitching could affect how soon we see Scott debut with the big league club. He had a great showing at the Arizona Fall League and displays fantastic speed and contact. While he has limited power, it’s not nothing.

He will instantly be a top-five runner in baseball once he’s up and should have more value than Esteury Ruiz once he is up and established with a regular role because he’s simply a better hitter than Ruiz. Even in a world where steals are up 30-40%, a guy who can steal 60 bases every year with 10 homers is worth a decent amount in fantasy baseball.

Joey Loperfido (2B/OF – HOU)

  • 2023 A+/AA/AAA: .278/.370/.510, 25 HR, 27 SB
  • Age: 25
  • ETA: Early 2024
  • Tim’s Ranking: 82
  • Consensus Ranking: 154
  • fScores: 111 fContact, 96 fDiscipline, 93 fPower, 118 fSpeed, 76 fDurability
  • Comp: Christian Yelich (without the peak years)

Joey Loperfido has all-fields gap power and can hit oppo tacos with his bat speed. He has very good speed to go with a great hit tool and very good plate skills. He would be a killer top-of-the-lineup guy, but in Houston, he’s probably looking at super utility duties when he debuts as a guy who can play in the infield and outfield. If Jake Meyers fails, Loperfido could be up sooner rather than later in 2024. He could be a nice 18-homer, 12-steal type with multi-position eligibility. At 25, there’s no point in keeping him in the minors much longer.

Carlos F. Rodriguez (SP – MIL)

  • 2023 AA/AAA: 128 1/3 IP, 158 Ks, 57 BBs, 2.99 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
  • Age: 22
  • ETA: Mid 2024
  • Tim’s Ranking: 88
  • Consensus Ranking: 175
  • fScores: 75 fPDurability, 112 fStuff, 98 fControl, 136 fERA
  • Comp: Marcus Stroman

Carols F. Rodriguez has an almost infamously below-average fastball but he showcases three above-average breaking pitches and locates all of his pitches well. He’s short for a pitcher at 6-foot-0, so he’s always going to be fighting that uphill battle as a prospect, but results matter and the Brewers are good at developing lower pedigree pitchers. This dude is climbing up the system levels quickly and is earning it based on his performance. There’s a little Braxton Garrett in his pitch mix and his size is a concern but the results continue. The Brewers are excellent at developing pitchers and Rodriguez just seems like the next one in a long line of successful projects.

Cristian Mena (SP – ARI)

  • 2023 AA/AAA: 133 2/3 IP, 156 Ks, 64 BBs, 4.85 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
  • Age: 21
  • ETA: Late 2024
  • Tim’s Ranking: 97
  • Consensus Ranking: 181
  • fScores: 69 fDurability, 110 fStuff, 90 fControl, 101 fERA
  • Comp: Pedro Martinez super light

Cristian Mena was literally traded while I was writing this article — going from a team with a terrible track record of developing pitchers (Chicago White Sox) to a team with a below-average track record of developing pitchers (Arizona Diamondbacks). A killer curve and increased fastball velocity have led to this 20-year-old (last season) to put up some nice K numbers at a high level for his age. The arm angle is way over the top, which gets on hitters very quickly.

Ignore the ERA with this guy, the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and left on base (LOB) luck is ridiculously bad. He spent time in the Southern League using the infamous tacky ball and we don’t know the results of what that’s doing to help or hurt pitchers at this point but his swinging strike rate is higher than his K-BB rate, which is abnormal. The White Sox sold low on him and this could be a killer grab for the Diamondbacks, as he could probably come up and be their No. 5 starter as soon as next summer.

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