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Fantay Baseball Draft Outlook: Alex Bregman, Nolan Schanuel, Juan Soto (2024)

Fantay Baseball Draft Outlook: Alex Bregman, Nolan Schanuel, Juan Soto (2024)

The formulation of my fScores allows me a unique insight into how much plate skills impact fantasy value and it changes drastically depending on league type. The biggest benefactors of points leagues are hitters who have phenomenal plate skills and hitters who get a lot of hits and benefit more from consistent production at high volume rather than being the toolsy guy with a lot of speed. Contrasting from a hitter side, the players that get dinged the most in points leagues are the speedsters and standard, older school leadoff types or players who are a high HR/SB guy with bad plate skills.

In regards to pitching, closers are almost worthless. In some points leagues when you can use SPARPs (Starting Pitchers As Relief Pitchers), all relievers are worthless in comparison to any starter that can be plugged into that relief spot. Keeping in mind that the exact points league value changes will be dependent upon the exact format and valuation of points, some points league types have advantages over others. I prefer Ottoneu FanGraphs’ H2H points as a game style for points leagues, as the Ottoneu format does not allow for the use of SPARPs requiring five RP and utilizing a 40-man roster in a salary-formatted league. Therefore, RP are required and their value is closer to that of a real-life reliever or closer against the inflated cost of closers in saves, category leagues or uselessness of closers in points leagues where you can arbitrage relievers with SPARPs.

One oddity that takes getting used to in the FanGraphs’ points system is how much a pitcher gets dinged for giving up home runs, thus pitchers that pitch a ton of innings without allowing HRs (almost like a QS, but not quite) are well rewarded versus the pitcher that can only pitch 4-5 innings, even if they strike out everyone they face. Innings pitched are critical in almost any points format and to avoid just the glitch of spamming innings, Ottoneu leagues counter with a start cap for the week in weekly leagues – therefore, you need to pick your starts carefully.

We are going to dig into 10 of the biggest ranking differences for hitters in this article. We will, more or less, avoid pitching as a topic after this little intro because the values are all relative to what type of points league and the entire group of RP are just simply less relevant by at least 150-200 players. So just adjust downward by 10-15 rounds in snakes or maybe like 65-75% of value in salary format leagues on all relievers and you will be on the right track. When it comes to starters, just focus more on the high QS guys… anyone who pitches more innings without giving up damage (no HRs, more ground balls) will do well.

For example; Logan Webb was the number two starter in Ottoneu over Spencer Strider in 2023. Players like Webb, Framber Valdez, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Merrill Kelly and Chris Bassitt play up in this sort of format while guys like Snell, Cease, Glasnow and Baz will all get dinged a little bit in overall value, while their weekly value might be fine.

That’s enough about pitchers, let’s get into the top hitters where the value is drastically different from categories to points leagues in a positive way. These are in no particular order, just the most noteworthy.

*If you are curious about the fScore ratings you can check out my fScore rankings and information.

Biggest Value Changes

Juan Soto (OF – NYY)

Name fContact fDiscipline fPower fSpeed fDurability TOTAL FUTURE
Juan Soto 103 192 147 80 117 131 137

Juan Soto leads all of baseball with a 192 fScore in fDiscipline, meaning he is 92% better at taking walks and avoiding strikeouts than the league-average starter. Soto ranked in Ottoneu H2H FanGraphs points as the fifth overall hitter in 2023 to Acuna, Freeman, Betts and Olsen. I would project him to finish second or third behind Acuna and maybe Betts in 2024. Even though Soto is already going in the back half of the first round, he’s an excellent example of the difference between categories and points leagues, where Soto jumps some of the more skills-based guys like Julio Rodriguez, Witt and Tatis.

Nolan Schanuel (1B – LAA) 

Name fContact fDiscipline fPower fSpeed fDurability TOTAL FUTURE
Nolan Schanuel 99 182 67 84 78 97 102

Nolan Schanuel is only valuable in points leagues or OBP leagues. He’s not worth owning in almost any categories league because he will only stand out as an average contact hitter with insane plate skills. He’s Steven Kwan without the speed. He rates out with the second-best overall fDiscipline in 2024 fScores. In points leagues, he’s still no Juan Soto. Still, he should rank around the top 25-30 first basemen as he averaged 5.04 points per game in Ottoneu in 2023 and finished in points per game ahead of guys like Springer, Chisholm, Pasquantino, Kim, Jordan Walker, Realmuto, Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, CJ Abrams and more.

Alex Bregman (3B – HOU)

Name fContact fDiscipline fPower fSpeed fDurability TOTAL FUTURE
Alex Bregman 104 169 97 66 116 112 117

Alex Bregman, like Soto, is still a stud in his own right in categories leagues, however, in points leagues, he rates out as a top 20-25 hitter pretty easily and as the third overall player in fDiscipline in 2024 fScores. In Ottoneu leagues, Bregman finished fifth of all 3B in points in 2023 just behind Royce Lewis, Riley, Ramirez and Devers. Whereas in categories league he would be going behind guys like Witt, de la Cruz, Machado and maybe even Kim and Steer. In points leagues, he should be going above all those guys and jumps ahead in average draft position (ADP) by around 40 spots or so, as I have him in the 50-60 range of hitters in categories leagues.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy


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