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5 Players Experts Avoid Drafting (2024 Fantasy Football)

5 Players Experts Avoid Drafting (2024 Fantasy Football)

It’s important to know who to target and who to pass on when it comes to your fantasy football draft. To better understand players to avoid and others to reach for, use our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and compare them to a player’s average draft position (ADP). Players going higher in ADP versus ECR are likely those you want to reconsider at their current cost. On the flipside, players that experts are higher on versus ADP are those that could be worth reaching for, or at least targeting at their current ADP.

This time of the year is time for reflection on the 2023 season with an eye towards being better in 2024. It’s still very early in the process, but we can learn a lot by taking a step back and reviewing the season we just had. To do so, we asked our experts to give a player they’re already avoiding in 2024 drafts (some of them are already happening!) and explain why. Here are their responses.

2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Guide

Players Experts Avoid Drafting (2024 Fantasy Football)

Which player’s 2023 production do you feel was unsustainable that you’ll avoid in 2024?

Kyren Williams (RB – LAR )

“2023 was the perfect storm for Kyren Williams. Cam Akers got cut, and Williams absorbed nearly every touch in the Rams’ backfield. He was super productive based on his elite “role” in the LA offense, facing BY FAR the league’s lowest rate of 8-man boxes (under 5%). Given the injuries he has gone through the last two seasons at his size – under 195 pounds – and the fact that LA has a track record of drafting RBs, his backfield competition will likely be stiffer in 2024. Simply put, Williams checks off the red flag boxes found most often in RB busts: Overreliance on rushing TDs (Matthew Stafford‘s red-zone passing TD numbers were underwhelming based on the 4th-most attempts inside the 20), obsession with the projected role over the player himself and injuries. Williams is priced as the RB5 on the early best ball ADP and RB6 in the early 2024 half-PPR ECR rankings.”
Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA )

“Raheem Mostert had a career year in 2023, finishing the season as the RB2, averaging 17 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, you couldn’t pay me to draft the veteran running back again. He averaged double-digit fantasy points per game once in his career before last season. Furthermore, his 21 touchdowns accounted for 52.5% of his career total. Mostert will lose more work to De’Von Achane next year. At soon-to-be 32 years old, I want nothing to do with the veteran running back in 2024.”
Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)

Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF )

“There’s no denying Brandon Aiyuk’s talent or will to win. The incredible acrobatic catch he made in the NFC Championship Game helped propel San Francisco to a great comeback win over the Lions. However, even if he signs a new contract with the 49’ers, Aiyuk is still only fourth in the go-to-guy pecking order behind, McCaffrey, Deebo, and Kittle imo. With a current ECR (Expert Consensus Ranking) of WR 10, Aiyuk seems overvalued, with limited upside, in a crowded WR room in the Bay area. Ai-yuck was Mark Ringo’s reaction when he found out Brandon’s current 2024 ECR, haha. instead, Ringo would rather have Marvin Harrison Jr., Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper, or Nico Collins.”
Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)

Courtland Sutton (WR- DEN )

“Sutton overperformed in the scoring department, registering 3 TDs over expectation. He’s likely primed for a step back after a career-best showing on deep balls. Consider: four of his 11 deep catches (20+ air yards) reached the end zone. Denver’s set to break in a new QB, but an upgrade on Russell Wilson isn’t guaranteed.”
Kevin English (Draft Sharks)

Courtland Sutton will be on my 2024 avoid list, even if we take out the quarterback uncertainty at the moment. Last year, he finished as the WR38 in fantasy points per game, with ten receiving touchdowns carrying him across the line (fifth-most). He was the WR48 in expected fantasy points per game and only commanded a 20.3% target share (38th). Without another outlier touchdown season in 2024, he’s doomed to disappoint as his other metrics have sagged. ”
Derek Brown (FantasyPros)

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN )

“Assuming Joe Mixon is back with the Bengals next year and they don’t spend significant assets on another RB, I’ll be avoiding him at what I assume will be an ADP too rich for my liking. Mixon finished as a Top 5 RB in Half-PPR in 2023, rushing for 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns on over 250 carries and catching 52 of his 64 targets for 376 yards and three more scores. That all sounds well and good, but the veteran RB wasn’t very impressive on a banged-up Bengals team. He didn’t rush for 100 yards a single time in 2023, and a few multiple-touchdown performances buoy his overall stats. At the very least, I think he loses some of that passing game work to Chase Brown next year. He is due a roster bonus right around the start of NFL free agency, so we’ll know in a few weeks whether Cincinnati plans to bring him back. If they do, I’ll be letting someone else draft him while I look elsewhere and stash Chase Brown toward the end of my drafts. ”
Mike Maher (FantasyPros)

2024 NFL Draft Guide

Dynasty Trade Value Chart & Advice

Whether it’s a dynasty startup draft or your rookie draft, we have you covered. Our team of fantasy football analysts includes Derek Brown, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Andrew Erickson. And Fitz and Scott Bogman will have you covered every week through the offseason with our Dynasty Football Podcast. They’ve all collaborated to provide our dynasty trade value chart. This is a dynamic chart created using a consensus of the analysts’ dynasty rankings.

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