It’s here. THE SUPER BOWL. One final Showdown DFS slate to conclude the 2023 NFL season. It’s put up or shut up time. Can Patrick Mahomes add to his already legendary legacy? Will Travis Kelce hoist the hardware and become Taylor Swift’s new roadie and ride off into retirement? Can Kyle Shanahan finally secure a Super Bowl ring that has alluded him to this point? Good lord, it’s gonna be a good game.
Let’s figure out how to attack it for DFS and build some lineups. Welcome to Super Bowl LVlll Primer. Enjoy.
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The Primer: Super Bowl LVIII
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- SF -2, O/U 47.5
- 49ers vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
DFS Targets
- Top shelf captains: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce
- Contrarian captains / Flex plays: Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon (if active), KC DST, Harrison Butker, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Richie James
Brock Purdy: Purdy’s level of play during the NFL playoffs has been inconsistent at best. While he has had 7.4 yards per attempt, he has struggled in a number of other efficiency metrics. His -2.5% CPOE, 70.3% adjusted completion rate, and 7.1% turnover-worthy throw rate are all tough pills to swallow. In the regular season, those numbers would have ranked 12th-lowest, eighth-lowest, and third-worst. That’s not good, no matter how you want to slice it or sugarcoat it. Add on top that Purdy will face a vaunted Chiefs’ pass defense, and it’s tough to consider betting the overs for his props or plugging him into DFS lineups, but I wouldn’t cross him off my player pool. It just means that he makes the contrarian list as a player I’ll match the field or come in below consensus on. This postseason, Kansas City has held passers to 5.7 yards per attempt, a 75.2 passer rating, -6.1% CPOE, and only 219 passing yards per game.
Isiah Pacheco: Even if McKinnon is active, look for Pacheco to play 70% or more of the snaps. McKinnon won’t be 100%, even if he’s active, so I don’t project a dramatic snapshare downturn for Pacheco. He has played at least 70% of the snaps in each playoff game, averaging 23 touches and 93.6 total yards. While his volume has been fantastic in the playoffs, his efficiency hasn’t been. In three playoff games, he has only managed an 11% missed tackles forced per attempt rate, 2.33 yards after contact per attempt, and a 3.2% explosive run rate. Each of these marks are no bueno. Despite my worries about his effectiveness, this remains a nice bounce-back spot for Pacheco. The 49ers had a stretch earlier this season where they were fielding a strong run defense, but that hasn’t been the case down the back half of the regular season, and it has continued into the playoffs. Since Week 15, San Francisco has allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-most rushing yards per game, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt. Pacheco is a fantastic contrarian captain.
Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk will likely take a backseat to Samuel in the Super Bowl. In the playoffs, Kansas City has deployed two-high on 77.2% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 10, against two high, Aiyuk has had a 16.3% target share, a 29.9% air-yard share, 1.65 YPRR, and a 24.7% first-read share. The Chiefs held perimeter wide receivers to the fifth-lowest PPR points per target in the regular season. Yes, that stat could also be used to pump the brakes on Samuel, but since Week 10, Samuel has played 40% of his snaps in the slot or the backfield against two high whereas Aiyuk had a 73.4% perimeter snap rate against two high. I’m fading Aiyuk in this game.
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