The time has come, ladies and gentlemen. The time for me to give you my absolute, without a doubt, gonna roster them way too much, must-have players for the 2024 season. I really enjoy doing this because it’s my chance to tell you that if you read nothing else of mine, this is the one to read. If you follow no other work of mine, this is the one thing you need to follow.
This is the one that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues in 2024, just as I expect to do.
In last year’s article, I highlighted Anthony Santander, Jazz Chisholm, Lars Nootbaar and William Contreras. Honestly, not a bad group of guys. Contreras went on to be the top catcher in fantasy baseball, Nootbaar dealt with injuries but still managed a 14/11 season, Santander put up a career-high 70 extra-base hits (XBH) and Chisholm managed a 19/22 season despite playing just 97 games. All in all, it was the type of production that likely paid off nicely.
This year’s article is a bit different. I want to highlight my “Must-Have” guys for this season but with a twist. I’ve been making more of an effort to produce points league content in 2024, so I’m going to be highlighting my must-have players in both 5×5 and points league formats. This way I can ensure this list of players will be beneficial to everyone and not just people sticking to a specific format.
With all of that nonsense aside, let’s do the damn thing.
Points League “Must Have” Players
The biggest talking points of the offseason surrounding the Los Angeles Angels have been about a certain someone leaving to sign with their cross-town rivals. I think the talking point should be the fact that youngster Zach Neto looks to be in line for a really good sophomore season.
For the totality of 2023, Neto played in just 11 minor league games and went on to play 84 at the major league level with mixed results. Twenty-six XBH and five stolen bases in that time frame is great. He showed he’s got a little bit of pop and enough speed to make it interesting on the base paths. On the downside, he slashed just .225/.308/.377. Outside of the Seattle Mariners, he wasn’t really striking fear in the hearts of his opponents.
If you really dive in, though, you’ll see that much of Neto’s downfall came after a string of injuries that seemingly zapped his production. He suffered both back and oblique injuries, which held him to just 29 games after June 14th. His production pre- and post-injury tell two different stories.
|
AVG |
SLG% |
K% |
Contact% |
| Before 6/15 |
.259 |
.431 |
18.6% |
77.4% |
| After 6/15 |
.174 |
.296 |
30.8% |
66.1% |
The production wasn’t just slightly worse, it was a pretty significant difference. Now coming into 2024 a year older and a lot healthier, Neto has a chance to put together a full season of that magical run he had before the injury bug struck.
The key for Neto is going to be where the Angels decide to slide him in the order. He split his time between hitting at both the top and the bottom of the order in 2023. Where he found the most success was in that nine spot. This will limit the amount of plate appearances he gets. However, in a perfect world, that means you can plan on seeing him hitting ahead of Taylor Ward and Mike Trout. It’s not a bad situation for a guy who’s pretty good at getting on base and scoring runs when healthy.
In a points league, he’s going to offer more upside than a traditional league. The sub-20% strikeout rate, the good contact rate, the total base ability (18 XBH in first 53 games), the speed potential… for a guy with a consensus average draft position (ADP) of 336, he becomes nothing but upside. I’m going take him in the later rounds of every draft to try and capitalize on his post-injury statistical meltdown.
I was already intrigued about Jung Hoo Lee in points leagues coming into this season. When looking over his Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) stats, I can’t help but notice a very similar plate approach to that of Masataka Yoshida. The same Yoshida who finished as a top-25 outfielder in most standard points leagues. With Lee currently sporting a consensus ADP of 219, the 54th OF off the board, it’s difficult to justify passing on him.
In the KBO, Lee excelled as a ground-ball hitter with elite contact. In fact, his contact would have ended up as some of the best in the major leagues last season:
Along with a low swinging strike rate (3.2% in 2023), Lee looks like the kind of player you can take late with incredible upside. It’s been announced he will be the leadoff hitter for the Giants, something many projections systems haven’t accounted for. Six hundred at-bats for Lee will potentially have him in line to fight for both a batting title and leading the league in doubles.
In the KBO, Lee never had a season hitting below .318. Outside of his 2017 season, when he was just 18, he never doubled fewer than 31 times. Now hitting in Oracle Park as a lefty may not be the most ideal place but it is actually beneficial to ground-ball hitters. Even those who aren’t power guys.
|
xBACON (95+ MPH) |
xBACON (u95 MPH) |
| Flyball |
99 |
91 |
| Line Drive |
100 |
96 |
| Groundball |
103 |
101 |
As you can see, ground balls have the best xBACON (expected batting average on contact) of any batted ball event for lefties at Oracle Park, according to Baseball Savant’s ballpark factors. Perfect for a guy projected to be in line for the most plate appearances there this season.
When it comes to my must-have players, not all will be guys going significantly later in drafts. It’s just hard to make this list and leave out a guy with top-25 upside at the position. He’ll be heavily featured in many of my points league teams this season.
I’ve already covered Ke’Bryan Hayes in previous articles but I cannot confidently make this list without adding Hayes here. Often overlooked in fantasy baseball drafts, he deserves much more love. At the moment, he has a consensus ADP of 185 and is going as the 18th 3B off the board.
Much of my excitement for Hayes comes from his combination of power metrics and contact. When doing my deep dive this year, all I keep thinking about is how much he reminds me of how I felt about Yandy Diaz going into the 2023 season. Tons of power with that 92.2 MPH average exit velocity (93rd percentile) and a 90.3% zone contact rate are enough to get me excited.
One of my favorite stats to use for highlighting points league success is Ideal Plate Appearance %… or IPA%. Not only is it a great way to measure beer, but it’s also a great way to find out who succeeds the most at the plate. Hayes’s 32.4% was the eighth-best in baseball last season.
His combination of great solid contact (92nd percentile), low strikeout rate (19.8%) and great 90th Percentile EV (105.8 MPH) have a chance to lead to Hayes’s first 20 home run season and 50+ XBH. Throw in his sneaky speed and a 20/15 season is very much in play in 2024.
5×5 Format “Must-Have” Players
The one pitcher I will be targeting above all others in 2024 is Pablo Lopez. Partly because you can consistently get him in the third or fourth round of drafts this season, and partly because he’s in line for what looks to be a monster year.
In 2023, Lopez took his pitch arsenal to another level. After doing his due diligence at Driveline in the offseason, his fastball velocity jumped to a career-best 94.9 MPH. He packaged that newfound fastball with a brand new pitch as well… a sweeper. A sweeper that would go on to give him one of the most effective pitch mixes in baseball.
With that new sweeper and beefed-up fastball, Lopez ranked fifth in baseball with a 29.2% strikeout rate and third in K-BB rate at 23.2%. In points leagues, the high K-BB% is great. In 5×5 leagues, the 234 strikeouts are elite. Only 17 pitchers ended the season with 200+ strikeouts last season, the only guys with more than Lopez were Spencer Strider and Kevin Gausman.
2023 was the first season of Lopez’s sweeper which helped give him a dominant out pitch to right-handers. What has been a bit overlooked is the fact that his changeup was just as good against left-handers. It sits a bit more middle-middle against righties than you’d like to see but he doesn’t use it against them enough to be a big issue. He’s one of the few guys with a legitimate “out pitch” to both sides of the plate.
When he’s on, god save the batter who faces him. This is the level of dominance you should be targeting from your SP1. He’s good enough that you can pass on the top guys like Strider and Gerrit Cole and use those first few picks on dominant bats. Leaving the first four rounds with elite hitters plus a starter with the potential to flirt with 250 strikeouts is a formula for success in every fantasy baseball league.
Do you know what the best way to win your fantasy baseball league is every season? Draft multiple guys who end up returning first-round value. Bryce Harper is one of the few guys going outside of the first round with a real chance at doing exactly that.
He’s going in the second round, so this isn’t a choice based on late-round value or a guy you can sneak onto your roster in the eighth round and enjoy consistent production. Harper is someone going in the second round that I refuse to leave every draft without this year. The production is just going to be way too good.
If you take Harper’s 2023 numbers as a whole, you’d see he ended the year with just 21 home runs and a .499 slugging percentage, which was his lowest since 2018. What you’d be missing is the fact that his first half of the season was spent still recovering from elbow surgery. Something notorious for zapping a hitter’s power. Harper insisting on coming back early from the rehab didn’t help his case much either.
|
SLG% |
HR |
Barrel% |
Hard Hit % |
| May – July |
.403 |
5 |
11.3% |
41.9% |
| August – Sept |
.641 |
16 |
20.9% |
54% |
It took some time, but once August rolled around, Harper became his old dominant self. His pre-August numbers weren’t necessarily bad. Especially his quality contact numbers. But with the elbow injury, it was difficult to get enough lift on the ball to turn those hard hits into home runs.
Now fully healed, Harper looks like he’s ready to return to his former MVP self. He plays in a lineup that’s primed for him to produce 180+ RBI & Runs, while once again hitting 30+ round-trippers. If he can keep that batting average around .290, like it was last season, he easily becomes one of the 10 most valuable hitters in fantasy baseball. An easy choice once the second round comes by and you see him smiling back from your computer screen screaming “Pick me!”
Second base was one of the thinnest positions in 2023. Not much has changed in 2024. You have the top four options in Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, Ozzie Albies and Marcus Semien. After that, it doesn’t necessarily get bad, but there is a legitimate drop-off in production.
You have two options when drafting second base. Either take one of the options very early or wait and pray you nail a later-round sleeper that can return enough production to make you happy. For me, Nolan Gorman is the perfect guy for option two.
He had what many would consider a “breakout” in 2023. His 27 home runs were fourth-best amongst second basemen despite playing just 119 games. Not only that, he drove in an impressive 76 and walked at an 11.4% clip. There was a lot to like about his season.
There were certainly things to dislike as well. His 32% strikeout rate wasn’t great and he hit just .236 despite having a manageable .296 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). He’s not ever going to be a guy who makes good contact; he’s going to be a guy who falls more into the quality-over-quantity category. Meaning his batting average will suffer but he can make up for it in other areas.
|
2023 |
Position Rank (Min. 450 PA) |
| Average EV |
91 MPH |
3 |
| Barrel% |
16.5% |
1 |
| Hard Hit% |
48.5% |
1 |
| xSLG |
.502 |
2 |
Gorman is currently being taken as the 18th second baseman off the board, 187th overall, according to the consensus ADP. If you want to focus your later picks on other positions like nailing a few top-end OFs, Gorman becomes a good option later on. Especially in category leagues where his later-round power will become very useful. There’s only a handful of guys capable of 30+ home runs after the first couple of rounds, so be mindful of that come draft day.
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