Fantasy Football Draft Value Fallers: Kenny Pickett, Justin Jefferson, Tyjae Spears, Justin Herbert

With NFL Free Agency largely in the rearview, it’s time to look at fantasy football draft values. There were players that were helped and others hurt during the NFL free agency process. Let’s look into a few notable names below.

Players Trending Down

Kenny Pickett (QB – PHI)

The writing was on the wall for Kenny Pickett when he returned from injury and the team elected to continue to start Mason Rudolph in must-win fixtures. There are few ways back from a benching of that variety but the Steelers can be hard-headed. Just look at their continued use of Najee Harris over Jaylen Warren for further proof. All the noise out of Pittsburgh this offseason was that the Steelers retained some faith in Pickett and he would have a chance to compete for the starting job once again. When Russell Wilson was signed and promised the first snaps, Pickett threw his toys out of the stroller and wanted out of the Steel City. Pickett is a soon-to-be 26-year-old quarterback who showed zero signs of development in his two years as the starter, throwing 13 touchdowns in 24 starts. He has now shown no willingness to compete for a job and is unlikely to be fantasy relevant ever again.

38-year old Joe Flacco has 13 passing touchdowns this December.

Kenny Pickett has 13 touchdowns in his career.

— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) December 29, 2023

Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)

The Vikings seem to have a succession plan for their quarterback position, allowing Kirk Cousins to walk for nothing and trading up to the 1.11 in next month’s NFL Draft. They now own two first-round picks and have enough capital to get as high as the third to fifth pick depending on how teams value their current spots. Whomever the new quarterback is, they’ll likely be a better option than Sam Darnold. Over the past three seasons, Darnold ranks 35th in catchable throw rate out of 38 QBs and 37th out of 38 QBs in turnover-worthy throw rate. Regardless of who the quarterback is, it will likely be a downgrade from Kirk Cousins, who has been a highly accurate quarterback at all levels of the field. If there is any drop-off in efficiency the team will have fewer plays per game and struggle to stay on the field, making life very hard for Justin Jefferson to repay first-round draft capital.

Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN)

Not too long ago the Titans leadership was referring to Tyjae Spears as “made of the right s–t” and talking up his chances to touch the ball an awful lot in 2024. Fast forward to the first day of legal tampering and the Titans saw fit to give Tony Pollard a three-year, $24 million deal that left us with nothing but question marks. Spears and Pollard fit similar roles and it’s hard to second-guess how the Titans envision this backfield split. Tennessee had to spend their abundance cap space but pouring resources into running back as a priority is confounding on many levels. It’s anyone’s guess who the most relevant player will be in 2024.

Tyjae Spears’ RB1 relevance

pic.twitter.com/OtZJPwFPdm

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) March 11, 2024

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)

It’s unavoidable just how bad a couple of weeks it has been for Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ passing offense. Austin Ekeler, an elite pass-catching back, has been replaced by Gus Edwards. Gerald Everett and Keenan Allen are in Chicago. Mike Williams is now a free agent. Herbert is doing his best Fresh Prince impression staring at an empty room and wondering who he’s supposed to pass the ball to in 2024. Allen led the league with 11.5 targets per game in 2023, as Quentin Johnston couldn’t catch anything and Josh Palmer was inconsistent. The Chargers reshaped their tight end room bringing in Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst — neither have any yards after the catch ability. Without substantial upgrades soon, Herbert will plummet in average draft position (ADP). We’ve seen quarterbacks be efficient in Greg Roman’s offense but Herbert needs something to work with.

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NFL Kenny Pickett Mason Rudolph Najee Harris Jaylen Warren Russell Wilson Justin Jefferson Kirk Cousins Sam Darnold Tyjae Spears Tony Pollard Justin Herbert Austin Ekeler Mike Williams Quentin Johnston Josh Palmer Will Dissly Hayden Hurst