It’s easy for fantasy football managers to obsess over sleeper candidates this time of year, and culling a list of cheap, undervalued players is worthwhile predraft prep work. But as important as it is to hit the target with a few middle- and late-round dart throws, it’s probably more important to avoid stepping into snare traps.
We can’t always see a Kyren Williams or Puka Nacua breakout season coming. It’s a little easier to suss out players likely to underperform their draft cost. If you can avoid squandering picks on trap players, you’ll have more chances to strike gold in your draft.
Here are some of the players I’m side-stepping in my 2024 drafts
13 Fantasy Football Players to Avoid (2024)
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
Hurts was QB2 in total fantasy scoring and fantasy points per game last season, and his 2024 ADP is QB3. So, what’s the problem?
Well, Hurts has scored double-digit rushing touchdowns in three straight seasons, topping out at 15 last year. Will the Eagles still use the tush push whenever they’re inside the 3-yard line now that they have RB Saquon Barkley, and now that center Jason Kelce has retired? If Hurts had run for only seven touchdowns last year — which still would have been more TD runs than any quarterback other than Josh Allen — Hurts would have gone from 21.9 fantasy points per game to 19.0 and would have ranked QB9 in that category, directly behind Brock Purdy.
Also, Hurts’ passing numbers slipped badly last year. He went from 8.0 yards per attempt in 2022 to 7.2 yards per attempt in 2023. Hurts threw 15 interceptions last year, third-most in the league. The Philly passing game really went belly-up late in the year. After the Eagles returned from their bye, Hurts averaged 188.9 passing yards over his last eight regular-season games and just 6.48 yards per attempt, with eight touchdown passes and seven interceptions.
We’ve also seen slippage with Hurts’ rushing yardage. He averaged 52.3 rushing yards per game in 2021 and 50.7 in 2022. He dropped to 35.6 rushing yards per game in 2023.
Hurts is being drafted in the same neighborhood as players such as Mike Evans, Rachaad White, James Cook and Sam LaPorta. I find it hard to justify taking Hurts over any of those options.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)
Herbert’s ADP is QB17, so it’s not as if he’s expensive. But drafting Herbert to be your starting quarterback would be imprudent.
New Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh brought in Greg Roman as offensive coordinator. In 10 previous seasons as an OC for the 49ers, Bills, and Ravens, Roman’s offenses have finished bottom three in passing percentage eight times, and dead last three times. The highest finish in passing percentage for a Greg Roman offense: 22nd with the 2021 Ravens.
Herbert is going to be stuck in a run-heavy offense, and his own performances over the last two seasons have been underwhelming. He’s averaged under 7.0 yards per attempt in each of the last two years, and Herbert didn’t move the needle as a runner in either of those seasons.
Aaron Rodgers (QB – NYJ)
Rodgers is 40 years old and coming back from a torn Achilles. When we last saw him play a full season with the Packers in 2022, Rodgers averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt (one of the lowest rates of his career) and threw 26 TD passes in 17 games.
The Jets’ offense will inevitably operate at a sluggish pace, which has always been the case when Rodgers has been paired with playcaller Nathaniel Hackett, who was Rodgers’ offensive coordinator in Green Bay for three years. Additionally, the Jets have one of the NFL’s best defenses, so Rodgers won’t be involved in many shootouts.
Rodgers’ ADP is only QB20, but even that modest price seems too high.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)
Although Jacobs finished 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt among qualifying RBs and 44th in yards after contact per attempt (according to Fantasy Points Data), we probably shouldn’t question his bona fides as a runner. This was, after all, a player who ran for a league-leading 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2022.
The greater concern is Jacobs’ workload in Green Bay. Over the last two seasons, Jacobs averaged 19.1 carries per game for the Raiders. But Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has strong RB-by-committee tendencies.
Over LaFleur’s five seasons as the Packers’ head coach, Aaron Jones has averaged 13.2 carries a game, topping out at 14,8 carries a game in 2019, even though he was clearly the best option in the Green Bay backfield in all of those years. When LaFleur was the Titans’ offensive coordinator in 2018, Derrick Henry had 215 carries in 16 games, and Dion Lewis had 155 carries. Imagine using a 24-year-old Derrick Henry as a committee back.
Jacobs has an ADP of RB12 in half-point PPR formats, and his usage probably won’t support his low-end RB1 cost.
Zamir White (RB – LV)
I’m slightly nervous about fading a running back who’s not that expensive (RB23) and has a clear path to being his team’s lead back. However, I’m not ready to draft White in RB2 range based largely on a good four-game run at the end of last season.
Admittedly, White’s late-season audition was impressive. He averaged 21.0 carries and 99.3 rushing yards over the Raiders’ last four games.
Yet, White has never been much of a pass catcher, and he has no track record of being a high-volume back. White’s single-season high in rushing attempts at Georgia was 160, and he never had even a 900-yard rushing season in college.
It seems like a bad process to target White in fantasy drafts simply because the Raiders’ RB depth chart looks sparse. Alexander Mattison disappointed last season after opening the season as the Vikings’ lead back, but he’d been an effective change-of-pace back in Minnesota for years and could reprise that role in Las Vegas. Rookie Dylan Laube is an athletic prospect who’s a good pass catcher. The Raiders’ backfield could end up a full-blown committee.
Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
Harris was RB20 in half-point PPR scoring last season, and his ADP is RB24. Seems pretty reasonable, right? Well, yes…until you consider that going into Week 16, Harris was RB31 in half-point PPR scoring. Then he had his best three-game stretch of the season, fueled largely by his Week 18 performance against the Ravens, who had nothing to play for and were resting a lot of key players. Harris had 133 total yards and a touchdown in that game. Four of his eight touchdowns in 2023 came in the final three games of the season.
As a rookie in 2021, Harris finished RB4 in fantasy scoring. He had 307 carries that season — more than anyone other than Jonathan Taylor — and 74 receptions. Harris had an 84% snap share as a rookie, and his snap share was only 53% last year. Harris is destined to share carries with Jaylen Warren, and Warren has taken a bite out of Harris’ passing-game usage. Warren had 61 receptions last year to Harris’ 29. The Steelers have figured out that throwing to Najee Harris is a low-EV strategy.
So is drafting him.
Zack Moss (RB – CIN)
Moss and Chase Brown are expected to split RB snaps for the Bengals this year. Brown is younger and faster than Moss and a better pass catcher. But Moss has an ADP of RB29 and is typically drafted a round or two earlier than Brown.
Moss was undeniably sensational for the Colts early last season when Jonathan Taylor was on IR (and in Taylor’s first game back). Over a four-game stretch in Weeks 2-5, Moss had 445 rushing yards, 72 receiving yards and four TDs. But from Week 6 on, Moss averaged 3.6 yards per carry and wasn’t nearly as effective. Don’t forget, Moss wasn’t exactly a dynamo during his two-and-a-half seasons in Buffalo either.
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
I’m not one to whistle past the graveyard when it comes to a running back injury that involves the tearing of multiple ligaments. Chubb needed two surgeries after tearing his left ACL, MCL, and meniscus last September on a play where a direct hit by Pittsburgh’s Minkah Fitzpatrick bent Chubb’s leg in grotesque fashion.
Chubb seems destined to start the season on the PUP list, which would keep him out until at least October. He’s unlikely to get a heavy workload upon his return, and it seems dicey to bet on Chubb returning to his old workhorse role at any point in 2024.
When he does come back, will Chubb still be on the shortlist of the best pure runners in the game? Chubb is 28 and has torn his left ACL twice. (He first tore it during his college career at Georgia.)
Chubb’s overall ADP is still inside the top 100, and that seems wildly optimistic given the severity of his injury.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
On talent alone, Aiyuk is worthy of his early third-round ADP. He’s a versatile, max-effort baller who can wreck opponents as either a pass catcher or blocker.
The problem is that San Francisco has three other outstanding pass catchers — Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey — and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan typically presides over a run-heavy offense. (The Niners ranked 30th in passing percentage last year.)
Aiyuk has never had a season in which he averaged more than 6.7 targets a game. He finished WR14 in half-point PPR scoring last year, but his 1,342-yard season required extraordinary (and perhaps unrepeatable) efficiency. Aiyuk averaged 17.9 yards per catch and 12.8 yards per target.
There’s a reason Aiyuk has demanded a trade: He knows he isn’t going to get target volume befitting a star receiver if he stays in San Francisco. However, Aiyuk has no leverage, and the 49ers are unlikely to trade him. Unless Aiyuk somehow ends up getting far more than the 105 targets he drew last season, he’s unlikely to provide stakeholders with a satisfying return on investment.
Nico Collins (WR – HOU), Stefon Diggs (WR – HOU)
I’m pretty much out on all the Houston receivers since their ADPs don’t adequately reflect the target logjam they’re facing. I might be willing to take Tank Dell at the right price, but that’s my only interest in the Houston receivers
Like Brandon Aiyuk, Collins is a talented receiver whose ADP (WR14) is inflated mostly because of freakish 2023 efficiency. Collins averaged 16.2 yards per catch in 2023, 11.9 yards per target, and 3.11 yards per route run. He might be hard-pressed to exceed last season’s 109 targets, however.
Diggs has been an alpha receiver in Buffalo for the last four years, but his production took a nosedive over the second half of the 2023 season. Over his last 10 games (playoffs included), Diggs averaged 42.2 yards per game and an anemic 5.3 yards per target, with only one touchdown. Now he has to share targets with Collins and Dell.
Jayden Reed
Reed was a pleasant surprise as a rookie, finishing WR23 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. On the surface, his ADP of WR35 doesn’t seem unreasonable.
The problem is that Reed had a snap share of 70% or higher in only two of the 18 games he played last year (playoffs included). He didn’t even reach a 70% snap share in any of the eight games fellow Packers WR Christian Watson missed. Reed is rarely on the field whenever the Packers use two receiver sets.
Also, Reed scored 10 touchdowns last season on 75 touches (64 catches and 11 carries) That works out to a touchdown on 13.3% of his touches — a TD rate destined to regress.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson
Hockenson is expected to miss about 4-6 games at the beginning of the season after tearing his ACL and MCL on Christmas Eve day last year. When he returns, he’ll be sharing targets with WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. And while I’m optimistic that Sam Darnold is at least good enough not to completely torpedo the Minnesota offense, I don’t know if he’s good enough to sustain the numbers of everyone from the Jefferson-Addison-Hockenson trio.
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