The final eight teams are set in the NFL. There are a pair of games on Saturday and two more on Sunday. The primary focus of this piece is the main slate and the classic contests, but there are also showdown picks. Since I’m taking a broad view of offensive and defensive tendencies, gamers entering all contest types and entering a modest number of teams or the maximum number of teams into contests should find value in this piece. Here are my top NFL DFS picks and predictions for Chiefs vs. Texans.
NFL Divisional Round DFS Picks: Chiefs vs. Texans
Spread/Total: KC -8.5/41.5 Points
- Main slate / Classic contest picks: Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, Marquise Brown, KC DST, Nico Collins, John Metchie, Dalton Schultz
- Top shelf showdown captains: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce
- Contrarian / Secondary showdown captains: Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown, Nico Collins
- Flex showdown only: DeAndre Hopkins, Kareem Hunt, KC DST, Harrison Butker, Noah Gray, Samaje Perine, C.J. Stroud, Dalton Schultz, John Metchie, Robert Woods, Xavier Hutchinson
Kansas City’s starting skill-position players haven’t played since Christmas. They might need a series or two to shake off the rust. Nevertheless, they should be rejuvenated. Kansas City’s offense will likely run through Patrick Mahomes. According to RotoViz’s pace app, from Week 10 through Week 17, the Chiefs had a 65% situation-neutral pass rate, the second-highest mark during that period.
Kansas City’s offensive tendencies should be exacerbated by facing Houston. From Week 10 through the Wild Card Round, the Texans faced a 59% situation-neutral pass rate. When Mahomes takes to the air, Travis Kelce is a decent bet to be on the receiving end of many of his pass attempts. The veteran tight end’s regular-season production hasn’t matched his best years in recent seasons. However, Kelce hasn’t skipped a beat in the postseason. According to Pro Football Reference, in three games in the 2022 playoffs, Kelce had 9.0 receptions per game, 85.7 receiving yards per game and four touchdowns. In four games in the 2023 postseason, Kelce had 8.0 receptions per game, 88.8 receiving yards per game and three receiving touchdowns.
Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown are also intriguing stacking options with Mahomes or one-off choices. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, in Brown’s two healthy games (Week 16 and Week 17), Worthy was first on the Chiefs in route participation (79.8%), targets share (25.3%), first-read percentage (28.3%), receptions per game (7.5), receiving yards per game (72.0), receiving touchdowns (two) and expected fantasy points per game (19.3). Meanwhile, Brown had only a 41.7% route participation rate but was force-fed 0.43 targets per route run and a team-high 25.5% air yards share, producing 4.5 receptions and 45.5 receiving yards per game.
DeAndre Hopkins and Noah Gray are also intriguing picks on the showdown slate. Samaje Perine is a viable punt as Kansas City’s passing-down back, and Kareem Hunt could pay off on the showdown slate if he punches in a short touchdown and totes the rock to protect a lead late.
Nico Collins is Houston’s only high-upside pick, but Dalton Schultz and John Metchie are usable punts for the underdog Texans. Since Week 10, the Texans were tied for the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate, and the Chiefs were tied for the fourth-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%) against them.
In Houston’s last two meaningful contests (Week 17 and the Wild Card Round), Collins had a 40.6% air yards share, 34.4% first-read percentage, 5.0 receptions per game, 90.5 receiving yards per game and one touchdown reception. Schultz and Metchie were second and third in route participation at 76.6% and 71.4%, respectively. Metchie had 4.5 receptions per game and 38.0 receiving yards per game. Schultz had just 2.0 receptions per game and 22.0 receiving yards per game. However, Schultz has a favorable matchup. According to Pro Football Reference, the Chiefs allowed the fourth-most DraftKings and the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends in the regular season. Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson are also defensible punts in showdown contests, especially for gamers attempting to maximize the salary they can spend on the Chiefs in Kansas City onslaught lineups.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.