Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a restful All-Star break and are ready to lock and load for the rest of the season. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.
We have a nine-game slate tonight, which is the perfect amount of games, in my humble opinion. Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a restful All-Star break and are ready to lock and load for the rest of the season. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money.
We have a nine-game slate tonight, which is the perfect amount of games, in my humble opinion. Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
Charlotte being a slow-paced team takes away a bit of the ceiling here, but with the Hornets already playing in a road back-to-back, potentially without Mark Williams, Nikola Jokic is in a spot to do Jokic-type things tonight.
I always sound like a broken record when discussing Jokic, but Denver has found their groove with eight straight wins and he has scored over 66 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games. It’s insane what his production, consistency, and ceiling provide you in DFS. With the bigger slate today, there should be plenty of value that opens up to allow your Jokic rostership to be warranted.
I hate when a player is a clear better play on one site over the other, but if you are a FanDuel truther, you might want to skip this one. Otherwise, De’Aaron Fox lines up to be an excellent option tonight. Right now, Victor Wembanyama is expected to be out with an illness. If that’s the case, Fox will be one of the highest-rostered players on the slate.
Fox is already averaging 43 DraftKings points a night and it doesn’t get discussed enough how bad the Suns have been this year. They rank 26th in defensive efficiency over their last 10 games (25th for the whole season) and the Spurs have only been playing faster as the year progresses. Fox might be a lock button tonight with his price and the Spurs’ current lineup.
I didn’t expect to be discussing multiple players in Charlotte-Denver this early in the article considering the options we have for the rest of the slate but here we are. The Hornets are indeed playing in the second leg of the back-to-back, but that just means more usage for Miles Bridges.
LaMelo Ball is expected to be out and Denver plays at the fifth-fastest pace in the league. We saw a 33% usage rate yesterday against the Lakers and you can expect similar numbers tonight. Against a sub-par defense with a faster pace and more possessions, Bridges lines up for another potential 50+ DraftKings point outing tonight.
I’ll throw Jalen Brunson in this paragraph as well with both Knicks options looking like cash game locks tonight. The Bulls have allowed the second-most fantasy points across the board with the third-most to point guard and center positions this year.
Even if you look at recent splits within the last 10 games, their defense has taken a further step back, ranking third-worst in the league, while their pace has stayed the same – the third-highest in the league. New York is in line for a lot of points tonight with an additional bump playing at home. Neither Karl-Anthony Towns nor Brunson will break the bank, so they offer a high ceiling while still being able to fill out your lineup with trustworthy options.
I can’t say this is the sexiest option but considering Portland’s current lineup, all of the usage is going to funnel through Anfernee Simons. Deandre Ayton and Jerami Grant are both expected to miss today’s game. Monitor Grant, though, as he’s a bit more in the air. If that’s the case, Simons is an easy go-to.
Not only will he get higher usage on the court but with Scoot Henderson also expected out, Simons might play 37 minutes again tonight. With the high-efficiency numbers, you won’t need as much volume against the Lakers, who still rank in the top 10 in pace of play over the last 10 games and might be short-handed tonight as well playing in a back-to-back.
Between Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, one is going off tonight, I can smell it. This is a banged-up Hawks team that has played faster than anyone in the league over the last 10 games and is the biggest pace-up spot the 29th-ranked Magic could ask for.
Only two other teams have allowed more fantasy points a game to opposing power forwards. I don’t know if Atlanta will have an answer to Orlando’s offense. After his injury, people seemed quick to forget about Banchero’s 86 DraftKings point outing. We’ve seen his ceiling and he’s established his floor by covering 40 fantasy points in three of his last four games with 46 against Atlanta 10 days ago. Banchero is too cheap for such an incredible matchup and makes for a great cash game play.
Usually, I go high-risk, high-reward with GPP options, where the outcome is unlikely but one that would put you in rare air if it hits. With Kevin Durant tonight, I’m mostly confused about his rostership. I project him to as a ~15% optimal player tonight, but he’s coming in near 5% at first rostership look.
San Antonio has been playing faster and no team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing power forwards than the Spurs over the last 15 games. Devin Booker is back but with Bol Bol now starting, Durant’s usage is only going to climb from its 30% rate as-is. He also has quite a friendly matchup. This is a smash play for me.
Another player set to smash that only comes in at 8% rostership currently is Tyrese Haliburton. Memphis, on the surface, has the seventh-most efficient defense but has dropped to 18th in the last 10 games. Which team comes to play tonight? Either way, the Grizzlies have consistently been in the top three teams in terms of possession rate, so this is more of a high-volume opportunity.
The game total is at 250. How can there not be more rostership on Indy and Memphis? Myles Turner slots well and while others are priced for a high total game, they still offer a rare ceiling potential. Haliburton may lead the pack from the options as he’s been consistently scoring and should cover 40 fantasy points tonight easily.
This one is a bit more of a Hail Mary but Luka Doncic and LeBron James are both listed as questionable tonight. If either doesn’t play, Austin Reaves lines up to be a clear late swap option. If they both do, Reaves is a sneaky GPP play.
Yes, he’s coming off a pretty weak outing, which is exactly why I don’t expect him to see much rostership tonight no matter how the dominoes fall with Los Angeles. Earlier this month, Reaves returned 70 fantasy points against Indianapolis, so he’s shown the capacity for such needed outputs.
This only plays if LaMelo Ball is out. If he is, I don’t expect you to need much convincing here. Between Elfrid Payton and Nick Smith Jr., both currently sit as excellent value options if Mark Williams and Ball are both ruled out tonight. If that happens, Charlotte will be one of the higher-rostered teams on the slate.
For the same reasons I love De’Aaron Fox, Chris Paul is a great value option. He’s going to see high rostership, so you might want to keep him to your cash lineups, but his usage will get a big bump against a weak defense.
The Suns have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards in their last 30 games with even more allowed in their last 15 outings. Paul should see more scoring and I expect him to play over 30 minutes, projecting him for around 31 DraftKings points tonight.
Santi Aldama may be coming off the bench but the Grizzlies’ frontcourt piece still plays consistent minutes — around 24 a night. When he’s on the court, Aldama’s usage rate gets close to 20%. He’s cleared 30 fantasy points in two of his last three games.
Considering the total tonight and how many possessions and scoring we will see, it’s quite reasonable to expect another similar performance out of Aldama against Indianapolis.
