Drafting underachieving players isn’t a winning strategy in fantasy baseball, but not every selection will pan out. Ideally, drafters will take small losses on their whiffs and knock it out of the ballpark on their hits. Avoiding busts is critical to hoisting a fantasy baseball championship at the end of the season. Not everyone qualifies as a bust candidate, though.
Middle and late-round picks have lower expectations and hit rates than earlier-selected players. As a result, I’m defining a bust as a player picked inside the top 72 (the first six rounds in 12-team mixed leagues) who significantly underperform their average draft position (ADP).
- 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Research & Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Average Draft Position (ADP)
Fantasy Baseball Busts
Ronald Acuna (OF – ATL) | Hitter #24/26.5 ADP
You don’t need to draft injured players in fantasy baseball. Injuries will find your roster. I’ve long advocated squeezing every ounce of value out of fantasy baseball rosters in leagues with injured list (IL) spots, but there’s a sizable difference between spending a premium pick on a player to stash in an IL spot and selecting a late-round dart on a banged-up player.
Ronald Acuna tore the ACL in his left knee on May 25, 2024. He tore the ACL in his right knee in 2021. According to FanGraphs, in 533 plate appearances in 2022, Acuna had 71 runs, 15 homers, 50 RBI, 29 stolen bases, a .266 batting average and a .351 on-base percentage (OBP). Acuna won’t necessarily struggle to the same extent as he did in 2022 after returning from surgery for a torn ACL. Still, his 2022 showing was a cautionary tale.
Acuna also isn’t expected to return until May, saying, “I need to take it easy a little bit,” suggesting he may decrease his stolen base attempts. How much will Acuna decrease his running when on base? Will he lose some speed after his latest significant knee injury? I don’t know the answer to either question and no one, save for possibly Acuna, knows the answer to them. The risk-reward scale tilts too far in the risk direction to warrant a gamble on Acuna with a pick in the first three rounds of 12-team mixed leagues.
Ozzie Albies (2B – ATL) | Hitter #38/49.8 ADP
I swear, I don’t have an axe to grind with the Braves. Nevertheless, Ozzie Albies is a prime candidate to bust in 2025. Last year, Albies was the 176th-ranked hitter in our value-based ranking metric (VBR).
Albies’ fantasy baseball value was impacted by injuries, limiting him to only 99 games and 435 plate appearances. He wasn’t lighting the world on fire when healthy. His stellar 2023 season was sandwiched by lousy seasons in 2022 and 2024.
Albies’ per-600 plate appearance pace last year was 13.8 homers and 11 stolen bases. His .251 batting average in 2024 was closer to his .259 batting average in 2021 and .247 batting average in 2022 than his .280 batting average in 2023. Furthermore, Albies’ .246 expected batting average (xBA) in 2024 and .236 xBA in 2022 were markedly worse than his .266 xBA in 2023. He’s had a sub-.390 expected slugging rate (xSLG) in two of the previous three years, tallying only a .387 xSLG last year.
Gamers should allow someone else to chase Albies’ 2023 output since it’s the outlier in his previous three seasons.
Adley Rutschman (C – BAL) | Hitter #44/63.3 ADP
Overvaluing positional scarcity is a tradition as old as fantasy baseball itself. Yet, Adley Rutschman’s fantasy baseball ADP is even more baffling since he had a middling season in 2024. Rutschman was the 101st-ranked hitter by our VBR metric last season and the sixth-ranked catcher.
As I highlighted earlier in the offseason, Oriole Park at Camden Yards underwent renovations to find a happy medium between the hitter-friendly conditions before 2022 and the pitcher-friendly environment from 2022 to 2024. The renovations are helpful for all of Baltimore’s hitters, but they’re unlikely to turn Rutschman into a fantasy baseball stud at the dish in 2025.
Rutschman isn’t projected to provide a substantial statistical advantage over the other top catchers with an ADP within the top 120 picks. The following table has the Zeile consensus projections and the ADPs for the top six catchers.
Rutschman's ADP is multiple rounds earlier than where he should be picked. Baltimore's switch-hitting catcher should be picked much closer to the 100th spot.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
