Fantasy baseball is all about the long game. Players you drafted early who struggle are not suddenly untalented bums who should be dropped to the waiver wire at a moment’s notice. There is a method to the madness of this game and baseball as a whole. Slumps happen, and when a talented player gets out of one, they typically do so in a glorious manner.
Fantasy Baseball 10 Burning Questions
We have to be patient unless something substantive like injury or age concerns becomes evident. Without either of the two, we are merely a month into a grueling, 162-game season, which can only be conquered through a diligent process.
This week’s ’10 Burning Questions’ are below. For any questions or concerns, contact me on Twitter/X (@RotoSurgeon).
Hold tight on Jordan Westburg. Yes, he is slumping and killing your batting average/on-base percentage (OBP) over the past few weeks but the talent is undeniable and his underperformance is mostly connected to luck. Look at his wOBA and xwOBA last year compared to this year:
| Season |
wOBA |
xwOBA |
| 2024 |
.340 |
.353 |
| 2025 |
.285 |
.359 |
His quality of contact is down, but he is mostly just unlucky and due for positive regression. There is some worry over a nagging back/upper-body injury that has lingered since the preseason, but Westburg did showcase enough power recently with three home runs to diminish concerns.
Westburg is one of the league’s best second basemen and playing on a roster struggling as a whole. The Orioles feel like one big domino set ready to fall and play like a top-tier offense.
There is no easy answer here with Tanner Bibee. His velocity is not down and he is not unlucky with his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) or left-on-base (LOB) rate. On the contrary, he is lucky to have the BABIP (.226) and LOB rate (84.9%) he currently possesses, as both are well beyond the league average and his career averages. Bibee is going to lose out in both facets, especially if he continues to pitch the way he does. This regression will compound issues and create more damage to his ERA and WHIP.
Bibee is simply making poor decisions with either his pitch location or pitch mix, but that is hard to decipher from afar. The lone positive of his early-season performance is the jump in his ground ball rate to 45% from a career 35.6% rate between 2023 and 2024. Unfortunately, this concerted effort has created a vulnerability while on the mound, resulting in seven home runs through 20 innings pitched. Bibee is striking out a career-low number of batters while walking a career-high. He has a lot to work on, but is at least healthy and trying to take that next step as an ace. Do not drop him, but shorten the leash just a tad.
Yes. Willson Contreras, like Jordan Westburg, has been unlucky to start this season, but not to the same degree. Contreras is striking out more than ever, walking less than ever and not making great contact. Nevertheless, the team is committed to him at first base and designated hitter, which is a massive boost compared to the toll catching takes. The Cardinals even lost starting catcher Ivan Herrera for a month and didn’t budge on their plan with Contreras (who has been awful defensively in recent years).
Contreras has awoken recently and will continue to play every day, which cannot be said for 98% of catcher-eligible players, and he is hitting in the heart of his lineup. Historically, Contreras is a very good hitter and has shown no decline in recent years. His contact data between 2023 and 2024 was the best of his career and should carry into 2025 sooner rather than later.
4.) Who should we buy low?
Ozzie Albies is a great buy right now. While he is not ice cold, thanks to four home runs and two steals, the average and run/RBI production leaves much to be desired.
Albies’ walk rate is the highest of his career (9.1%), and his strikeout rate is the lowest of his career (13.1%). Unfortunately, his BABIP is also the lowest of his career at .233. Typically, BABIP will regress closer to a player’s career BABIP as the season goes on, providing Albies’ mediocre .233 average plenty of room to grow. With more hit luck and the return of superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. next month, Albies’ overall production should get back to the range of his healthy, elite seasons.
5.) Who should we sell high?
Roki Sasaki and Jackson Jobe are both providing quality ERAs to start this season, but it is likely best to move off both, if possible, before regression rears its ugly head. Both have upside if they get their stuff right, but neither is pitching close to their true numbers.
Sasaki and Jobe should be roughly two runs worse than their present ERAs. Jobe has a much better WHIP (1.20 vs 1.47) but less redraft value based on draft position.
Concern should be higher on Devin Williams than Emmanuel Clase at the moment. Both sport an ERA above 7.50, but Williams’ xFIP and SIERA are both above 5.00, which is alarming, even in just eight innings. Clase is not pitching well, yet he is much better with an xERA, FIP and SIERA just below 4.00. Cade Smith has closed the past two games for Cleveland, but we can safely assume this is to rest Clase, who has pitched 10.1 innings this season in four appearances within the past week.
Williams deserves some more leeway, though, as he could get right at any moment, given how early it is in the season. However, deeper leagues should consider grabbing Luke Weaver as a hedge against the scuttling Williams, who has just one more strikeout (eight) than walks (seven).
Yes. Unless you are in a shallow league with 10 or fewer teams, Caleb Durbin should be rostered. Milwaukee’s rookie infielder is a special contact hitter who recorded better walk rates than strikeout rates in the Minors.
Durbin is unlikely to hit more than low double-digit home runs in a given season, but he makes up for that with great speed. An elite mix of on-base ability and speed should always be coveted in fantasy. This is unlike Luis Arraez, who provides only average and runs.
8.) Will Nick Kurtz be in a platoon?
No. The Athletics brought up the lefty-hitting Nick Kurtz earlier this week but benched him versus left-hander Patrick Corbin on Tuesday. This move was reportedly to acclimate Kurtz and not force him into the lineup ASAP.
Kurtz is expected to slot in as the Athletics’ everyday designated hitter and will only ride the pine if he needs a breather or struggles down the line. If he is still available in your leagues, fix that.
This depends on your league type. In keeper formats, absolutely, given the long-term upside Roman Anthony possesses. In redraft leagues, Anthony should be let go if shallow enough and your record is slipping early. That extra roster slot could be valuable to stream or grab an extra active bat.
The Red Sox seem set on waiting until June for Anthony’s activation to gain an extra year of club control on his rookie contract. Anthony is likely to perform well from the jump and could be a major fantasy spark regardless of format, but we have players like the aforementioned Durbin and Kurtz up in the Majors who are providing value now (along with other pieces on the waiver wire).
Both Ryan Pressly and Carlos Estevez were acquired this past offseason and are being paid a hefty sum by their respective teams. Nevertheless, my bet is neither sticks as the loser all season, but Pressly is much more likely to lose the role sooner based on early returns. Estevez did just blow a save on Tuesday, but it was his first of the season. His ERA is still a solid 3.27 and his peripheral stats are OK if you squint.
Meanwhile, Ryan Pressly has a 2.45 ERA and four saves (with none blown), yet he looks terrible — even worse than Estevez. Pressly’s -2.1% K-BB through 11 innings is egregious, and all of his peripheral stats are nearly 5.00, indicating that his ERA is at least two full runs better than it should be. The Cubs’ bullpen is not deep, but Porter Hodge is the set-up man who accrued nine saves last season and should slot in if Pressly fails. If you have Pressly, move on and keep an eye on Hodge.
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